TeraOhm Flibble

Government arrival caps lock out hundreds of thousands of overseas Australians.

This sockpuppet has the data on it all.

Mr Flibble is very cross.

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@DenHeten @Qantas Safe travels! and good luck with the new adventure!

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@dbRaevn The yellow of this graph also shows the approximate time past 6pm people stayed up on NYE

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@MichaelSFuhrer Ahh perfect - well done :)

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@MichaelSFuhrer So, roughly, the population that is susceptible has *roughly* tripled (20% to 60%), and suggests that breakthrough is happening (roughly in 40%/80% = 50%) with current combination of variants in NSW.

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@MichaelSFuhrer You've got an interesting data point here I didn't quite think of when I saw this. If you trace back from the orange line (assume today's 2.25 Reff) to the purple (baseline PHSM) you'll hit around 40% effective vaccination - back from ~80% (broad numbers here).

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@MichaelSFuhrer Source that lead me to this... https://t.co/hdUaY7FLPv

Really good read.

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@MichaelSFuhrer (Apols if dup). This is amazing - thanks. Omicron's R0 number will be hard to pick see: https://t.co/FyI6Ckzck9

[Trevor Bedford @trvrb]

Under a scenario of 90% population immunity against previous variants, we get the following picture where Omicron could lie anywhere along the dashed line ranging from an intrinsic R0 of 3 and 83% immune escape to an intrinsic R0 of 9 and 20% immune escape. 14/18

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@MichaelSFuhrer Amazing - thank you. Really interesting. Trying to pin the R number down will be hard... great little snippet here: https://t.co/FyI6Ckzck9

What lead me to that (good read) is this: https://t.co/hdUaY7FLPv

[Trevor Bedford @trvrb]

Under a scenario of 90% population immunity against previous variants, we get the following picture where Omicron could lie anywhere along the dashed line ranging from an intrinsic R0 of 3 and 83% immune escape to an intrinsic R0 of 9 and 20% immune escape. 14/18

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@MichaelSFuhrer Hi @MichaelSFuhrer - with Omicron's arrival, and different inherent R0 number, is it possible that you can update this with a point that shows current Reff and Vax number? would be really interesting....

[Cees @NordicNomadEsq]

Today’s the day! Singaporean tourists can now come to Australia while I and 1,500,00+ other Australian resident visa-holders still can’t leave to see family and then return to Oz. Thousands more remain trapped offshore.

Please retweet and help end this cruelty once and for all.

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@covidbaseau Is the green tick 95%?

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@dbRaevn Hey @dbrRaevn - nice looking graph, I’d just be careful of how it starts to look as the base rate moves up - ie at 90% fully vaxed, the % of hospitalised of full vax will be larger than now… simple % won’t tell the story right.

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@dbRaevn Wait my bad - it’s rate of vax on y, I.e velocity or %/day or week

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@dbRaevn Check y axis - goes to ~1%… correct?

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@dbRaevn Thanks for this - interesting that Hume (71%) peaked, but Casey (83.4%) hasn’t - if its correct, then its probably the social effects… that is the much maligned Hume is trying harder than the rest.

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@dbRaevn Do you think the shortened Pfizer interval will accelerate these dates much?

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@dbRaevn Interesting to see the reduction in cases in Northern, and @Chrisbilbo graph of Hume shows a Reff of ~1 ( https://t.co/HavCOAAA1g ) - if this is vaccination taking effect, would be great to see cases & vac rate by these areas if you have them?

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@dbRaevn Also might put your Phase B closer to the Oct 26th date VicGov has...

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@dbRaevn Hey @dbRaevn - can you check Phase B at its just "70%" where as Phase C is "80% (16+yrs)" - not clear to me if the 70% for Phase B is 18+ or 16+, and odd that it wasn't called out for Phase B if that was the case. Thanks!

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@swainey123 @adventure_ali_ @smh_ch @GregHuntMP @Ninecomau @swainey123 - I'd guess that the timing allows for the marketing of the launching of the reopening, rather than the scrutiny of a second Christmas of #strandedAussies being locked out, and the anniversary of when @ScottMorrisonMP said he'd have them back by...