Texans Probe

Contributors: @JacobBarzilla & @DrewScouts

[Texans Probe @TexansProbe]

THE TEXANS PROBE HAS A NEW YOUTUBE HOME!

@DrewScouts & @TexansJacob are moving the Texans breakdown podcast to a new youtube specifically for the Texans Probe!

New episodes will still be weekly during the season & some mixed in during the offseason as well.

Link to YT below ⬇️

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

Texans personnel percentages last season via @SumerSports:

(* is an extra lineman)

- Houston was 31st in 12 personnel % last year despite hiring a TE coach.

- They were both 6 in 11 personnel rate along with 11/12 personnel with extra lineman.

Would expect that 12 personnel rate to jump to at least middle of the pack in 2026.

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

Texans OC Nick Caley on QB CJ Stroud and his offseason via @jonmalexander:

"There was a lot of progress that C.J. and the offense made last year. We continued to get better from the start of the season to the end of the regular season and just continued to make progress from week to week. So we're going to continue to build on that. It's a new year. C.J. has done a great job out here. Looks good. Locked in."

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

Every 20+ air yard target for Jaylin Noel last year:

Jayden Higgins said that Noel got faster this offseason & could potentially add even more explosiveness in year 2 for Houston.

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

Davis Mills did a really good job spreading the ball around in his starts including helping Jayden Higgins breakout.

The weapons target share in weeks 10-12:

Nico Collins - 28
Dalton Schultz - 23
Jayden Higgins - 23
Christian Kirk - 13
Jaylin Noel - 7
Woody Marks - 5
Xavier Hutchinson - 5

Seemed like Stroud preferred throwing to Hutchinson vs Mills and Higgins which is something Stroud will need to improve with Higgins getting more opportunities.

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

The final 4 games for the Texans offensively were easily the best for Nick Caley in terms of opening up his playbook and scheming guys open.

Saw him mix in some RPO shot plays & insert blocking along with being efficient off PA.

He improved a ton from early season & should get people excited for a much more talented offense in year 2 under him.

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

The Texans LT position has accounted for 32 penalties over the last 2 seasons via @PFF:

2024 - Laremy Tunsil (19)
2025 - Aireontae Ersery (13)

Something to clean up for Ersery heading into year 2.

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

Texans OL rooms True Pass Set PBLK grade from last season (@PFF):

Aireontae Ersery - 52.2
Wyatt Teller - 49.4
Jake Andrews - 57.7
Ed Ingram - 38.3
Braden Smith - 69.8
Trent Brown - 62.6
Evan Brown - 47.1
Keylan Rutledge - 83.6 (CFB)
Febechi Nwaiwu - 86.8 (CFB)

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

Not sure how many QBs can say they broke 2 Chris Jones sacks on key 3rd downs and made big plays out of them but CJ Stroud did that vs the Chiefs in Week 14.

His fearlessness under pressure can get him in trouble on occasion (like in the divisional) but it’s a trait that anybody would like to have.

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

Texans penalty yardage per game since Demeco Ryans took over in 2023:

2025 - 54.5 (8th highest)
2024 - 60.5 (4th highest)
2023 - 54.1 (5th highest)

Ryans has preached improving the mental aspect of the team during OTAs/Mini-Camp trying to cut down on some of these errors while still keeping their physicality.

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

Since 2023, the Texans are the most penalized offense in the NFL at 197 penalties right around 66 per season.

They are the only offense in the NFL to have 60+ penalties in each of the last 3 seasons as well.

Cutting down to even middle of the pack can save a TON of drives for Houston.

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

Azeez Al-Shaair’s jump from year 1 to year 2 in coverage in Houston was one of the biggest developments for the defense last year.

Targets: 39 (2024) vs 65 (2025)
Yards Allowed: 394 vs 364
Passer Rating: 121.1 vs 81.8
Y/REC: 14.1 vs 7.3

He allowed less yards on 26 more targets in 2025 compared to 2024.

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

CJ Stroud’s numbers early in 2025 were really broken up massively by the quality of defense with the success vs mediocre/bad defense & struggles vs elite/great defenses.

I think the process was pretty good for him early but talent wise Houston was poor without figuring out the run game & OL early on.

Vs Non-Seahawks/Jaguars defenses pre concussion:

- 73.8% Completion Percentage
- 8.2 YPA
- 9 TDs
- 2 INTs
- 77.9 PFF Grade
- 1.6% TWP
- 112.7 Passer Rating

Vs Seahawks & Jaguars:

- 55.2% Completion Percentage
- 5.0 YPA
- 2 TDs
- 3 INTs
- 49.3 PFF Grade
- 6.5% TWP
- 62.1 Passer Rating

Have to be better against better opponents but this also goes hand & hand with improving run game.

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

Davis Mills talking with @jharrisfootball & @TexansVoice about where the Texans offense is compared to last year:

“I think this time of year right now we are light years ahead of where we were last year. It’s always nice going into year 2 of an offense instead of having to fully install the entire thing for the first time.”

He also mentioned Nick Caley working with the QB room and CJ Stroud to install things that he likes to run from the past.

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

CJ Stroud’s Big Time Throw % over his first 3 seasons via @PFF:

2023 - 4.3%
2024 - 4.1%
2025 - 3.3%

- Stroud before concussion was at just a 3.1% which put him 28th out of 39 qualified QBs.

- In the final 5 regular season games (weeks 14-18), that number went up to 4.4%.

Once Stroud returned from his concussion the team opened up more of the playbook & wasn’t as reliant on quick game.

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

Where does Woody Marks fit in the Texans offense for 2026?

With David Montgomery in the building as the leak back, Houston will likely get create with ways to use Marks in their offense and even possibly special teams:

https://t.co/gZ9TYMasah

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

Jayden Higgins had too many opportunities on throws down the field go to waste due to either bad balls, miscommunications or other things.

Could be in for a big 2026 season if the QBs & him clean up these.

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

Some star WRs Y/RR over the last 3 seasons via @PFF:

Puka Nacua - 3.19
Nico Collins - 2.75
A.J. Brown - 2.48
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 2.47
Justin Jefferson - 2.38
Ja’Marr Chase - 2.23
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 2.22

Collins has just been ridiculously good & consistent for Houston.

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

Pretty good here from C.J. Stroud throwing 20+ yards in clean pockets with some missed opportunities due to bad WR/TE play or just misses from Stroud.

He’s a damn good thrower of the football when in rhythm but he’s too easy to knock out of that rhythm as of now.

Hopefully an improved run game can help that heavily.

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

CJ Stroud EPA/DB targeting different alignments in 2025 via @NextGenStats:

Wide: +0.12 (21st)
Tight: +0.20 (18th)
Slot: +0.35 (8th)
Backfield: +0.08 (8th)

Much different from 2024 where Stroud was 12th in EPA/DB targeting wide targets & not top 20 in any other category. Year 2 Higgins with the return of Tank Dell & better protection should help that improve in 2026.

[Jacob @JacobBarzilla]

The Texans offense led all teams in quick first-read completions last year via PFF, they were 26 completions ahead of 2nd place in the LA Rams.

Houston’s offensive staff did a nice job creating surroundings for Stroud & co. that gave easy answers & help stay ahead of the chains which led to a much more efficient Stroud & pass game from 2024.