MLB HR PLAY #2⚾️
Nick Kurtz O 0.5 HR
(+250 FD)
❤️ FOR ANOTHER PLAY
•The Big Amish is the model’s TOP projected hitter for today — Dimers Pro’s simulation gives Kurtz a 34.5% chance to go deep tonight, the highest of any hitter in baseball.  The algorithms love this spot
•He’s coming off a 471-foot moonshot — the new 2026 distance king in MLB, marking his 16th homer of the year and giving him a .976 OPS on the season.  This man is not cooling off
•His Statcast profile is elite — 94.1 mph avg exit velo, 57% hard-hit rate, and an 18.4% barrel rate.  He’s squaring up everything thrown his way
•Tonight he gets Jared Jones, who is fresh off Tommy John recovery — a 4.73 ERA across just 13.1 innings in three starts back from a major elbow injury.  Jones’ stuff is still rounding into form
•Jones’ Statcast numbers back it up — opponents have a .343 wOBA and .354 xwOBA against him this season, with a 46.2% hard-hit rate allowed.  He’s still getting hit hard as he works back to full strength — exactly the kind of arm Kurtz feasts on
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How many ways does Seiya Suzuki have to do damage off Michael Lorenzen tonight?
Three pitches grade 87 or higher:
- 92 vs Four-Seam (20%)
- 89 vs Sinker (16%)
- 87 vs Cutter (14%)
That's half of Lorenzen's mix, against a pitcher carrying a 7.54 ERA and a .345 average allowed. The HR Power number is modest at 29, so 2+ HRR at +18.8% value leans more on contact volume than raw pop here.
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Three batters show up twice in today's top 10 edges, and all three are worth a look 👀
Byron Buxton owns the No. 1 spot (2+ TBs, +120) and also lands at No. 3 for 2+ HRR. James Wood and Liam Hicks each appear for both their TB and HRR props too. When the model flags the same bat across two markets, the projection is leaning hard on that hitter.
Buxton's +120 is the rare plus-money price on a top edge.
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MLB HR PLAY OF THE DAY ⚾️
Juan Soto O 0.5 HR
(+320 FD)
❤️ FOR ANOTHER PLAY
•Soto already has a SAMPLE on Chase Burns this season and it didn’t go well for Burns — back on May 26, Soto ended Burns’ scoreless bid with a two-run homer to right field in the sixth inning.  He’s seen this stuff and gone yard off it before
•On the season Soto is hitting .293/.387/.561 with 15 home runs and 34 RBI, making him the most dangerous bat in the Mets’ lineup.  The power has been there all year
•Yes, Burns has been excellent — a 1.96 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 72 strikeouts across 64.1 innings, all top-4 in the NL.  But Soto is one of the few hitters who’s actually gotten to him this year
•That homer off Burns came in Soto’s first game back from a two-game absence due to illness — he carried a one-hit shutout into the sixth before Soto delivered.  Even when Burns is dealing, Soto finds a way to connect
•Soto has a long track record of going deep against Reds pitching specifically — multiple homers vs Cincinnati arms dating back to last season. At +320, betting on the guy who’s already taken Burns deep once this year is the right side
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MLB ⚾️ Lock #2 (June 15th)
Gleyber Torres o 1.5 HRR
(+105 MGM)
70 PERCENT HIT RATE 💎
❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING
Gleyber Torres has been on an absolute tear since returning from injury. In the month of June, he's hitting .350 with a 1.022 OPS and has looked like one of the hottest hitters in baseball. The underlying metrics support the production as well, as Torres owns a solid .257 expected batting average while continuing to pair an elite walk rate with a low strikeout rate.
Those plate discipline numbers are a big reason to like this prop. Torres consistently puts himself in position to contribute because he's constantly finding ways to reach base. Whether it's through hits or walks, he creates opportunities to score runs and drive in teammates.
The matchup against Kai-Wei Teng is favorable. Teng primarily attacks right-handed hitters with a fastball, sinker, and sweeper, and those are all pitches Torres has handled well this season. He's hitting .324 against sinkers and .300 against sweepers, while even his results against fastballs have been better than the batting average alone suggests thanks to a positive run value.
Teng has also been hittable recently, allowing seven hits in back-to-back outings. With the Detroit Tigers offense starting to get healthier around him, Torres should have multiple paths to cash this prop. If he continues getting on base at his current rate, there should be plenty of opportunities for him to score runs or contribute with RBIs along the way.
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