CanadianWatcher

I talk about Canada & other things I'm interested in.

[Polling Canada @CanadianPolling]

(Models Available For Subscribers)

Federal Polling:

LPC: 42% (-2)
CPC: 29% (-12)
NDP: 13% (+7)
BQ: 7% (+1)
GPC: 6% (+5)
PPC: 2% (+1)

Nanos / June 5, 2026 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone/Online

(% Change w 2025 Federal Election)

Visit @338Canada for polling details: https://t.co/7P3TANuvQr

[Philippe J. Fournier @338Canada]

📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Liaison Strategies:

🔴LPC 40%
🔵CPC 32%
🟠NDP 15%
⚜️BQ 7% (28% in QC)
🟢GPC 3%
🟣PPC 2%

→ https://t.co/Hdxk0URjO3

[Liaison Strategies, May 24-June 6, 2026, n=1,526]

#canpoli

[Philippe J. Fournier @338Canada]

📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Nanos Research:

🔴LPC 42%
🔵CPC 29%
🟠NDP 13%
⚜️BQ 7%
🟢GPC 6%
🟣PPC 2%

→ https://t.co/Nobbiqe4pk

[Nanos Research, May 15-June 5, 2026, n=1,023]

#canpoli

[CanadianWatcher @TheCDNWatch]

@kylejhutton @CDNprojections im also thinking AB's exercise will be the same (lose at scc)

[CanadianWatcher @TheCDNWatch]

@kylejhutton @CDNprojections fyi I googled it since it wasn't on wikipedia (under qc election) and they are trying to make some frankenstein map where they combine both proposals and add 2 seats... dk what the result will be since they lost at SCC already

[Philippe J. Fournier @338Canada]

📊Alberta separation poll from the Angus Reid Institute:

🔴67% Stay
🔵30% Leave

The debate over AB separation is not taking place between conservatives and progressives, it's occurring within Alberta's conservative movement itself. → https://t.co/j7iY7ifwse

[Philippe J. Fournier @338Canada]

📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Research Co.:

🔴LPC 46%
🔵CPC 31%
🟠NDP 11%
⚜️BQ 7% (27% in QC)
🟢GPC 3%
🟣PPC 1%

→ https://t.co/h6E1SVC7tU

[Research Co., May 6-8, 2026, n=1,003]

#canpoli

[David Coletto 🇨🇦 @DavidColetto]

NEW from Abacus Data: One year after the federal election, the opinion environment remains very positive for the Carney Liberals.

• Government approval hits a new high: 57%
• Liberals lead Conservatives by 10
• Carney net impression: +26
• 55% say his government is a genuine break from Trudeau years

Read more: https://t.co/oHuxXhwFzA

[Charestiste🇨🇦🍁 @RealAlbanianPat]

New Abacus Data poll

🔴LPC: 46% (+1%)
🔵CPC: 36% (-)
🟠NDP: 8% (-)
🔷BQ: 6% (-1%)
🟢GPC: 3% (+1%)
⚪OTH/PPC: 1% (-)

(+/- change from last Abacus poll)

[Polling Canada @CanadianPolling]

Polling Canada Federal Model Update:

🔴 LPC: 218 (+49)
🔵 CPC: 100 (-44)
⚜️ BQ: 19 (-3)
🟠 NDP: 5 (-2)
🟢 GPC: 1 (-)

(Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election)

- May 9, 2026 -

Full model article here: https://t.co/R1pZWrb5Qe

[Polling Canada @CanadianPolling]

Those Who Say They Would Vote For:

Canada:
LPC: 60%
CPC: 49%
NDP: 30%

Quebec:
LPC: 61%
CPC: 33%
NDP: 16%

Ontario:
LPC: 64%
CPC: 52%
NDP: 36%

British Columbia:
LPC: 61%
CPC: 47%
NDP: 40%

Abacus / May 6, 2026

[Philippe J. Fournier @338Canada]

338Canada🍁federal update | May 10, 2026

🔴LPC 221
----------------majority : 172 seats
🔵CPC 94
⚜️BQ 20
🟠NDP 6
🟢GPC 2

Details here ↓ https://t.co/hd0UAhvdB0

[Canada Projections🇨🇦 @CDNprojections]

Nova Scotia Electoral Model Update - May 6, 2026
https://t.co/yj0OJB3Slr

🟦39 (-4)
🟧14 (+5)
🟥2 (=)
⬛1 (=)

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY

(Change from the 2024 Election)

[Charestiste🇨🇦🍁 @RealAlbanianPat]

Latest Liaison Strategies Quebec poll modeled out

⚜️PQ: 76 seats (+73)
🔴PLQ: 46 seats (+25)
⚫PCQ: 3 seats (+3)
🔵CAQ: 0 seats (-90)
🟠QS: 0 seats (-11)

(+/- change from last election)

⚜️Parti Quebecois Majority Government

Feel free to ask for any ridings/circonscriptions

[Polling Canada @CanadianPolling]

British Columbia - Provincial Polling:

CPBC: 46%
NDP: 36%
GPBC: 13%

Angus Reid / April 28, 2026 / n=804

Check out - https://t.co/UzfyW3avBb

[Charestiste🇨🇦🍁 @RealAlbanianPat]

New Quebec Liaison Poll/Nouveau sondage Liaison au Québec

⚜️PQ: 32% (+17%)
🔴PLQ: 32% (+18%)
🔵CAQ: 16% (-25%)
⚫PCQ: 11% (-2%)
🟠QS: 7% (-8%)
⚪AUT: 2% (-)

(+/- change from last Quebec General Election)/
(+/- variation par rapport au dernier EG)

[Philippe J. Fournier @338Canada]

📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Nanos Research:

🔴LPC 45%
🔵CPC 32%
🟠NDP 11%
⚜️BQ 6%
🟢GPC 3%
🟣PPC 1%

→ https://t.co/59gXmWb7Tf

[Nanos Research, April 10-May 1, 2026, n=1,027]

#canpoli

[Philippe J. Fournier @338Canada]

📊B.C. provincial voting intentions from the Angus Reid Institute:

🔵CPBC 46%
🟠NDP 36%
🟢GPBC 13%

→ https://t.co/9Tv90qqlPu

[Angus Reid Institute, April 24-28, 2026, n=804]

#BCpoli

[Philippe J. Fournier @338Canada]

📊Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Liaison Strategies:

🔴LPC 45%
🔵CPC 33%
🟠NDP 9%
⚜️BQ 6% (26% in QC)
🟢GPC 2%
🟣PPC 2%

→ https://t.co/3YB9YgrVpr

[Liaison Strategies, April 20-May 2, 2026, n=1,000]

#canpoli

[Philippe J. Fournier @338Canada]

📊Latest 🇨🇦 federal polls from active firms in past 30 days:

🔴LPC +7, Angus Reid Institute
🔴LPC +9, Abacus Data
🔴LPC +11, Léger
🔴LPC +11, Liaison Strategies
🔴LPC +12, Ipsos
🔴LPC +13, Nanos Research
🔴LPC +14, EKOS

https://t.co/DxslcllLep