David R

Science-minded, JFK (aspirational, "traditional" liberal?)
Bayesian.
Interested in being less wrong about stuff.

[David R @TheRealDHR]

@RPritikin9459 @david_eng_mba It will flow (rotate) back in..

[David R @TheRealDHR]

Great state-of-the-art (science) review on peptides..👍

[David R @TheRealDHR]

@mattkratter Grok?:
https://t.co/zGLLSTm1nj

[David R @TheRealDHR]

@dotkrueger Grok?
https://t.co/zGLLSTm1nj

[David R @TheRealDHR]

@dotkrueger 👍

[David R @TheRealDHR]

@AlexesNakamoto Wouldn't be too hard on Zcash.
Likely has durable a niche.
No where near the network of BTC, of course.
A side-bet, maybe..
Recent closure of SEC investigation is relevent.

[David R @TheRealDHR]

@JoshuaDHCM Yep
Read "Millionaire Next Door"..
https://t.co/6YYCz1bMVy

[David @david_eng_mba]

$BTC: -16% downside. +255% modeled upside.

Spot: $74K
Modeled floor: $62K
5-year modeled floor: $262K

Downside to floor: -16%
Upside to 5Y floor: +255%

Spot/floor: 1.19×
Floor CAGR: ~33%/yr

Decision: accumulate

Why?

Because the model is not pricing “low risk.”

It is pricing asymmetric risk.

The risk is waiting while the floor compounds.

#DYOR

[David R @TheRealDHR]

@A5T3R0lD Nice space👍

[David @david_eng_mba]

Missing Bitcoin’s best 10 days turned +90% into -25%.

2020–2025 data:
Buy & hold median annual return: +90%
Miss the best 5 days: ~78 percentage points of damage
Miss the best 10 days: -25% median return
Total damage: ~115 percentage points

[David R @TheRealDHR]

@TakatotoSanoshi @dotkrueger I "imagined" that chart?

[David R @TheRealDHR]

@TakatotoSanoshi @dotkrueger Wrong
You are being fooled by short term noise
Look at the rising floor

[David R @TheRealDHR]

Who bought American Bitcoin @ $175.00?
MAGA supporters? Ouch..
(currently trading about 1.00, > 99% loss of value)

[David R @TheRealDHR]

A reasonable odds bet?:
The IBIT dump was some OG's Bitcoiners who had moved a chunk of their self-custodied BTC into IBIT.
They are now breaking some capital loose to scale into private acquisition purchases of SpaceX / Open AI before their IPO's.
Sure, this may affect BTC spot price short term - but then, after the IPOs (& retail FOMO), they will take their capital and profits and move much of it back into Bitcoin, which will then rip.
Perfectly played.. 👍

[David R @TheRealDHR]

@dotkrueger Silver lining?
A better thesis?:
Individual AI plays are a complete crapshoot
(the eventual winners will all be "obvious" in retrospect)
Bitcoin has much lower risk - greater Sharpe ratio.
Bitcoin is the safer play.

[David R @TheRealDHR]

@HistoryBoomer OK, but is there a common "Black culture"?
Nigerians, Congolese, West Indians, ADOS, Somalians, etc?

(agree that American ideals are not dependant on skin pigment levels)

[David R @TheRealDHR]

WTF?
https://t.co/dA56syOAvp

[David R @TheRealDHR]

@aakashgupta Or it is genetically mediated behavior (not learned)

[AA ⚡️ @AAStack]

My G

[David R @TheRealDHR]

@dotkrueger Nice analysis from @david_eng_mba
The Power-law is NOT just retrofitted.
90 day action is mostly noise
True signal is revealed over years.
https://t.co/QI6SRgrzVN

[David @david_eng_mba]

The strongest evidence $BTC's Power Law is real is not the ~96% R²

It fails where noise should win.

Then wins where structure should matter.

The fit is strong:

R² = 0.961
Exponent ≈ 5.67
But that is not the proof.

Anything can fit the past.

The real test is out-of-sample.

Leak-free walk-forward vs random walk:

At every date, the model only sees data available at that date.

90d: -97.3%
180d: -3.2%
1Y: +49.1%
2Y: +76.5%

Median across the defensible window, 90d–2Y:

+23% OOS R²

At 90 days, it gets destroyed.

At 180 days, it is noise.

At 1 year, it cuts squared error roughly in half.

At 2 years, it cuts squared error by more than three-quarters.

That is not what a fake curve-fit usually looks like.

That is the signature of a long-duration adoption curve.

Short term:
liquidity, leverage, headlines, forced selling.

Long term:
fixed supply, adoption, network effects.

Residuals pass the sanity test too:

ADF p = 0.021

Deviations from trend have historically mean-reverted instead of wandering away.

Not a perfect law.

Not a trading signal.

A scale-invariant adoption structure that only shows up when time beats noise.

90 days is chaos.

1+ years is signal.

@mcuban @saylor @BenCowen88 @MicroStrategy @IndiaBitcoinMan @garycardone007 @GaryCardone
#Bitcoin #BTC #QuantResearch

[David R @TheRealDHR]

@WSJ 1) Resistance training is key
2) Newer peptides are better