TradeRN

Traveling Nurse, Student of the Charts. Learning every day. Not financial advice. Any calls made are for my own future reference.

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Over the last month an interesting behavior in bond markets is back.

The yield curve is bear steepening again.

What does it mean, and why does it matter?

1/

[Chris Koerner @mhp_guy]

Should I start this biz?

I have a shop like this on my property. Full HVAC, 2,100 sqft, and my $2,500/mo tenant is moving out soon.

There's insane demand in my area for youth personal sports training here, from middle to high school.

I'm considering filling it with equipment, lining with astroturf and renting it out by the hour to 2-3 trainers at a time.

My area is somewhat rural - no gyms, but upper middle class with overachieving rich families and top tier schools. Lots and lots and lots of youth sports.

Several local friends have told me this biz would crush here.

Furthermore, one of Texas' largest high schools is 10 mins away - 5,400 students across 3 grades. You've probably heard of it...

I don't want a monthly memberships because I want to control the flow of people at any given time, even if less profitable.

I'm optimizing for quality of life here, and not trying to manage a 6th biz or massive headache.

I'm thinking:

- $40 per hour time slot
- 10 surge hours per day at $40 per
- 10 low demand hours per day at $10 per
- 4 down hours per day for cleaning
- 2-3 max people per slot

That's 1,800 slots per month.

At 3 trainings per week on average you'd need 150 students to be at max capacity.

I could sell bundles of time slots together at a discount.

There are at least 10,000 middle - high schoolers within 10 miles...

And ~3,000 sets of parents with too much money to spend on sports.

ON PAPER, at full capacity thats $45k/month top line.

Much better than $2,500! Not bad for 2,100 sqft.

Maybe add an hourly employee and some vending machines with drinks and snacks.

Make it really nice inside. It would require some upfront build out cost.

I could see this biz going up almost anywhere. Rent out someone else's shop with permission to do this.

Buy (rent) by the acre and sell by the foot. The WeWork for youth sports.

Should I do this and build it publicly? Finances and all.

Poke holes in this please. It seems asymmetric to me. If it doesn't work out I resell the equipment and move on.

[Ben Kelly @benkellyone]

Boring businesses build the most wealth.

It's so simple, yet 99% of people still chase the challenging ones.

So, please...

Pick one of these lame but lucrative businesses (10 options):

[BUILD OR DIE @BUILD_OR_DIE]

Jeff Bezos on Managing Stress

"Stress primarily comes from not taking action over something that you can have some control over.

So if I find that some particular thing is causing me to have stress, that’s a warning flag for me; what it means is, there’s something that I haven’t completely identified perhaps in my conscious mind, that is bothering me, and I haven’t yet taken any action on it. I find, as soon as I identify it, and make the first phone call or send up the first email message or whatever it is that we’re going to do to start to address the situation, even if it’s not solved, the mere fact that we’re addressing it dramatically reduces any stress that might come from it. So stress comes from ignoring things that you shouldn’t be ignoring, I think in large part.

People get stress wrong all the time in my opinion. Stress doesn’t come from hard work, for example, you know you can be working incredibly hard and loving it."

[TradeRN @TheTradingNurse]

@Dr_Gingerballs Your content is fantastic, i wouldn’t even bother giving these trolls a reply.

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

Software Update⚙️
BBTrend: A New Indicator from John Bollinger!

We're thrilled to unveil BBTrend, a groundbreaking indicator developed by the esteemed @bbands!

Let's dive into what makes BBTrend a game-changer in the world of technical analysis. 🧵

[PyQuant News 🐍 @pyquantnews]

17 Python GitHub repos for quant finance:

[Anthony Crudele @AnthonyCrudele]

https://t.co/jH2SpIusQv

[Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQF @predict_addict]

RIP Monte Carlo @GoogleDeepMind releases the code for Conformal Monte Carlo.

https://t.co/1c1jj1AXRo

#conformalprediction

[Trade For Opportunity @TradeForOpp]

New Indicator 👇

Protected Highs & Lows

Access here - details below: https://t.co/ooOIc9JZDS

[PyQuant News 🐍 @pyquantnews]

Order book data is used by high frequency traders to front-run normal investors.

But normal investors can use order book data too.

Here's the 7 ways:

[Ralph Sueppel @macro_synergy]

“QuantStats Python library that performs portfolio profiling, allowing quants and portfolio managers to understand their performance better by providing them with in-depth analytics and risk metrics.” https://t.co/bYmJ42zKBy

[Robert Griffin III @RGIII]

Florida State is the first Undefeated Power 5 Conference Champion to not get into the College Football Playoff. Despite the ACC having a 6-4 record against the SEC this year. Despite their defense not giving up 30 points in a single game all year. Despite their offense having more yards in the ACC Championship than Michigan had in the Big 10 Championship. Despite holding Louisville’s Top 20 Offense to 6 points. Despite beating 4 Top 25 teams. Despite finding a way to win with their Back up QB in a bitter rivalry game. Despite finding a way to win with their 3rd string QB in the ACC Championship Game. Florida State EARNED their spot in the CFP on the field. With and Without Jordan Travis. You don’t punish or diminish the work of 100+ players and coaches because 1 player is not there on the field calling the shots. FSU always answered the bell this year and their response to losing their QB was to play POSSESSED ON DEFENSE. It’s an absolute travesty that they were excluded from the CFP.

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

👇 🥐 👇 🥐 👇 🥐 👇 🥐 👇 🥐 👇

[Brian Feroldi @BrianFeroldi]

RIP Charlie Munger

I'll always remember him for this talk he gave on the Psychology of Human Misjudgement.

If you have an hour, it's well worth the time:

[QuantPrep🚀 @quant_prep]

How to build an efficient Limit Order Book with the following operations:

- Add: O(1)
- Cancel: O(1)
- Execute: O(1)

The idea is to build a binary tree of Limit objects sorted by price, each of which is a linked list of Order objects

Get it here👇

https://t.co/00PWdcGSmB

[pedma @pedma7]

Gm!

A common misconception I see is mixing momentum strategies with trend strategies.

Both are similar, up to the point where we have start considering velocity in our equation.

Lets define Momentum VS Trend:

To understand why time is relevant in momentum, we need to understand that momentum, as opposed to trend, takes into consideration the velocity of the move.

Momentum (M) at a time (t) is the change in price (P) over a specified period (Δt).

Trend is more complex to quantify mathematically and every trader that trades a trend approach, has his own definition of what trends mean.

Lets use one of the most common ways to identify these trends using moving averages. Here trend at time t is determined by the average price over a preceding period.

To simplify, in our momentum formula we calculate the difference in price over a specific interval, which captures the velocity of that price change.

On our trend formula we use the moving average to get the average of price over a set number of past periods. This smooths out short-term volatility and highlights the underlying direction. But it DOES NOT care about velocity.

Why are Time Extensions Important in Momentum:

Time extensions are important because of the nature of human behavior in markets. We can't expect that a certain price change, that is way above historical average, to be sustained forever.

However we must take time into consideration here as we do in our formula. A 50% move in a few days is way different than a 50% in a few years. Both bring different risk factors into the table.

If we look a t the chart above we can see that momentum periods (depends on how a momentum period is defined) have a set of consistent lifespans. This is because we take into consideration large expansions in price in a short amount of time that can't be sustained forever.

Obviously there will be outliers and we shouldn't neglect those outliers as they contribute massively to the bottom line of the portfolio.

Trend traders on the other hand don't concern themselves too much with the velocity of short-term movements but rather with the overall trend in the timeframe used.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

@LukeGromen I pointed out the importance of issuance/spending/QE/QT/Timing in my 5/18/2020 Damped Spring Report with a framework purpose built for post COVID and relevant today

[PyQuant News 🐍 @pyquantnews]

The SABR stochastic volatility model:

Built by hardcore PhD quants.

Not a hardcore PhD quant?

Not a problem (anymore).

Use the SABR model like the pros:

[TradeRN @TheTradingNurse]

@elonmusk Great show