The Stock Doc

I write my own stuff (not AI) and you should too.

[Barchart @Barchart]

JUST IN 🚨: Stock Market says Goodbye to Greed for the first time in almost 2 months 🫡

[Pythia Cap: Partially Conductive @PythiaR]

Sometimes I feel guilty for copying other's investment ideas, often off Twitter, but then I remember basically nobody's ideas are original and the money you make doesn't care where you got the idea.

[The Stock Doc @The_StockDoc]

@epictrades1 Did Jensen stutter? He said 1 TRILLION

[The Stock Doc @The_StockDoc]

Seems big for $ALAB

[Astera Labs @AsteraLabs]

We're advancing this with AI platform providers @AMD, @Arm, @Intel & @NVIDIA, plus Taiwan ODMs @GIGABYTE, Ingrasys (@Foxconn), @Inventec, @QuantaQCT & @Wiwynn.

[Astera Labs @AsteraLabs]

We're advancing this with AI platform providers @AMD, @Arm, @Intel & @NVIDIA, plus Taiwan ODMs @GIGABYTE, Ingrasys (@Foxconn), @Inventec, @QuantaQCT & @Wiwynn.

[Astera Labs @AsteraLabs]

Taiwan is where the global AI supply chain gets built, so we're going deeper.

Astera Labs is expanding our Taiwan operations + Cloud-Scale Interop Lab, bringing platform interop and validation right next to the silicon, systems & manufacturing partners. 🧵

[The Stock Doc @The_StockDoc]

@stockedgeN We got the ‘finish green’, what an intraday swing!

[The Stock Doc @The_StockDoc]

@JonahLupton Conviction is a hell of a drug

[Trade Whisperer @TradexWhisperer]

SK Hynix Chairman Chey Tae-won reaffirmed a persistent supply deficit of memory chips that could last until 2030, in Taipei on June 2.

SK Hynix plans to double its memory chip wafer capacity over the next five years (by 2031)

$DRAM $MU $SNDK

[The Stock Doc @The_StockDoc]

Top-ticked this flaming garbage heap

[The Stock Doc @The_StockDoc]

Someone talk me down from buying $SPCE puts on this garbage pump

[Jonah Lupton @JonahLupton]

After listening to the $CRDO earnings call for a second time this morning and reading through the transcript... when you think about the second half inflection... hyper-scaler customer base... adding more hyper-scalers (talks about 6 of them)... starting to add neo-clouds (could be 20% of total revenues in near future).. and a few more breadcrumbs... there's no way $CRDO does less than triple digit revenue growth in FY2027 which means eps will also be growing triple digits because margins are expanding... perhaps eps growing above 110% which means $CRDO got down to 25x NTM EPS at the AH lows... already up +19% from those lows... just upset I didn't get a chance to do more adds below $190 because I think $CRDO is a $300-350 stock in the next 12 months.

$CRDO also mentioned they have no plans to raise additional capital through an offering because they're already sitting on $1.4B of cash.

If the 6-7 hyperscalers are going to spend $800B+ on capex this year... perhaps going to $1.2B+ of capex next year... $CRDO will continue to be a big beneficiary because they have AECs, Retimers and Optics.

[The Stock Doc @The_StockDoc]

@stockedgeN After Jensen’s comments about Marvell today, it very well could

[The Stock Doc @The_StockDoc]

@fitz_thoughts @JonahLupton Fair point. But not new. That’s been a known, and it’s improving now with a fourth 10%+ customer and a road map to more diversification with Neoclouds etc

[The Stock Doc @The_StockDoc]

@RyshabTalks Really encouraging overall IMO. Some of my highlights:

[The Stock Doc @The_StockDoc]

Honestly, that $CRDO earnings call was super solid. CEO Bill Brennan gave us a clear roadmap for revenue ramp throughout the next 2 years.

Some of the main highlights:
- Credo expects mid-single digit sequential growth throughout FY27 H1 with an inflection in H2 bolstered by >$600M in optical revenue (that's >1 whole quarter of revenue they are currently generating without optical contribution)!
- independently each of the optics categories will grow over 80% YoY (Zero-flap optics, optical DSPs, and SiPho PICs)
- this one really surprised me: Neoclouds ($CRWV, $NBIS, $IREN, etc) are the "perfect customer" for Credo as they move very quickly with a huge emphasis on time-to-deployment, reliability, and network performance; they could end up >= 20% of total revenues (diversification in customer mix is expected throughout this fiscal year) and are not currently a big contributor (but they are in talks)
- the pluggable market in optics is significantly larger than that for AEC which is the current workhorse for CRDO revenue
- ZF Optics should have 3-digit ASPs with 2-digit for the other optical components
- FY28 will see growth of ALCs and OmniConnect "Weaver" that can contribute $2,000-3,000 revenue to Credo per GPU

I'm really bullish on $CRDO moving into coming quarters. This after-market sale is overblown, just like I said with Micron $MU. And what happened after that?

[The Stock Doc @The_StockDoc]

@drzelkyn Yeah, their roadmap to future growth is really well laid-out through the next 8 quarters. Great company

[The Stock Doc @The_StockDoc]

$CRDO earnings: some initial thoughts

[The Stock Doc @The_StockDoc]

Next Q, if they "only" hit their midpoint guide of 470M, it's up 111% YoY revenue. That's still insanely high growth, and on a tougher comp (they had 31% sequential revenue growth between these two quarters LY).

I think we have a very different definition of "TERRIBLE." Sure, it's a slowdown. But from insanely high revenue growth to less insanely high but still impressive growth.

They also expect significant production ramp for ZFO next quarter which is an entirely new revenue source.

I'm eagerly awaiting the earnings call, but nothing about this was terrible to me.

[The Stock Doc @The_StockDoc]

@Philip58761248 Thanks, I still have strong conviction in them over at least the next 2-3 years

[The Stock Doc @The_StockDoc]

Honestly, that $CRDO earnings call was super solid. CEO Bill Brennan gave us a clear roadmap for revenue ramp throughout the next 2 years.

Some of the main highlights:
- Credo expects mid-single digit sequential growth throughout FY27 H1 with an inflection in H2 bolstered by >$600M in optical revenue (that's >1 whole quarter of revenue they are currently generating without optical contribution)!
- independently each of the optics categories will grow over 80% YoY (Zero-flap optics, optical DSPs, and SiPho PICs)
- this one really surprised me: Neoclouds ($CRWV, $NBIS, $IREN, etc) are the "perfect customer" for Credo as they move very quickly with a huge emphasis on time-to-deployment, reliability, and network performance; they could end up >= 20% of total revenues (diversification in customer mix is expected throughout this fiscal year) and are not currently a big contributor (but they are in talks)
- the pluggable market in optics is significantly larger than that for AEC which is the current workhorse for CRDO revenue
- ZF Optics should have 3-digit ASPs with 2-digit for the other optical components
- FY28 will see growth of ALCs and OmniConnect "Weaver" that can contribute $2,000-3,000 revenue to Credo per GPU

I'm really bullish on $CRDO moving into coming quarters. This after-market sale is overblown, just like I said with Micron $MU. And what happened after that?

[The Stock Doc @The_StockDoc]

Spoiler alert: $MU went up 3x from the bottom of the post-earnings selloff.