Thesis Checks

The hype board, graded. I track what FinTwit calls and what the stock actually did next. Mostly it's humbling. Calls, not callers. Not advice.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

I read a lot of stock takes on here. Confident ones. And I realized I had no idea which kinds actually hold up.

So I'm going to start checking. Every week: the calls making the rounds, timestamped and compared to what the stock did next.

Here's how it works 🧵

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@Bobdog1922 @x52xofficial @longwashere Yeah…x52 the phoenix with an absolute banger of a call. Wish I woulda put some chips down on this one. I’ve got $META shares and that’s nice. But this coulda been way nicer!

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@NotA_Bull The price when their product improves.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@QuonTradeTalks Up 2% on the day so far. Seems good to me. Better than red and looking constructive

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@Roll1er Whatever… lil bro is tearing it up. Job well done lil buddy.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@x52xofficial @longwashere Up 30% today - that’s a banger!

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@longwashere

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

This is the right take. If they can get to insta and FB retention they will be heads and tails over all others. They’re already ahead on retention compared to their peers.

[Brad Freeman @StockMarketNerd]

To the people comparing $META Muse retention to Instagram retention…

Maybe try a more apples to apples comp like this one.

Not a brand new product creating new use cases vs. a seasoned, perfected product with a fortress network effect & established uses.

Muse is doing great.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

For everyone thinking about $META earnings today. Muse is being adopted by so many users. 10M downloads in 40 days. There’s a chart going around showing that their retention lags Facebook and Insta, but the real question is does their retention do better than Claude, Grok, OpenAI?

[Muse Cases @Musecases]

ten million downloads in forty days. muse did not just launch. it landed.

the part that matters is the retention. people are not only trying it. they are keeping it on their phones and coming back to it, at rates higher than its rivals.

that is what happens when an agent does real work instead of just answering questions. it books the flight. it fights the bill. it clears the inbox. people keep the tool that saves them time every week.

send this to one person who still thinks agents are just hype.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@QC_Capital_ Good IMO. Muse is a great product that is going to catch on like wildfire

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

Muse isn’t just super helpful it’s also a source of 🔥 memes. lol

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@MelvinInvests This was the report that a Morgan Stanley analyst raised their $META expectations to over $800. Their execution here will improve for sure.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@michaelsikand This was the report that a Morgan Stanley analyst raised their $META expectations to over $800. Their execution here will improve for sure.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@intelfabs This was the report that a Morgan Stanley analyst raised their $META expectations to over $800. Their execution here will improve for sure.

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@NotA_Bull I did the same!

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@Optimus_RH Phrasing

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@PunchyMoney Napping

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@Bobdog1922 Yes!

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

Fascinating takes across X on $MU. I’m seeing both calls for drops like this one and calls for parabolic rises. Will be fascinating to see which plays out.

Me personally, I’m bullish and own this name. NFA.

[Team LAMBO @TehLamboX]

$MU clearly got rejected off the upper trendline here

From 918 high to 897 so far

Breakdown will be below 860

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

@MarketMaestro1 Dang! Congrats! So well deserved

[Thesis Checks @ThesisChecks]

It’s your civic duty 🇺🇸. lol.

[Urkel @SteveUrkelDude]

Sometimes,

Buying the dip is the patriotic thing to do 😂🫡