Today I start an incredible journey, pursuing a dream I have for over a decade. Always behind a computer screen, I've read all the news and trends in technology, getting excited with every announcement and every paper released. This is my hobby.
June 1983. A 28-year-old Steve Jobs walks into a design conference in Aspen, Colorado. He asks the room who owns a personal computer. Nobody raises their hand. He says āUh-oh.ā
Then he spends the next 55 minutes describing the next four decades of technology.
Jobs told the audience Appleās strategy was to āput an incredibly great computer in a book that you can carry around with you, that you can learn how to use in 20 minutes⦠with a radio link in it so you donāt have to hook up to anything.ā Thatās an iPhone. In 1983. The Mac hadnāt even shipped yet.
He described an MIT project that sent a camera truck down every street in Aspen, photographed every intersection, and built a virtual walkthrough on a computer screen. Google Street View launched 24 years later. He said office networking was about 5 years away and home networking 10 to 15 years out. The web went mainstream in the mid-90s, about 12 years later. Dead on.
He described software being sent electronically over phone lines, with free previews and credit card payment. Thatās the App Store, 25 years before it launched. He even compared it to the music industry and said software needed āthe equivalent of a radio stationā for free sampling. Apple built the iTunes Music Store 20 years later.
The AI prediction is the one that hits different now. Near the end, Jobs talked about machines that could capture a personās āunderlying spiritā or āway of looking at the world,ā so that after they died, you could ask the machine questions and maybe get answers. He said 50 to 100 years. ChatGPT arrived in about 40.
The weird part is this speech was lost for nearly 30 years. The full hour-long recording only surfaced in 2012 when a blogger got a cassette tape from someone who attended the original conference. The Steve Jobs Archive didnāt release actual video footage until July 2024.
His timelines were consistently too fast. He wanted the ācomputer in a bookā within the 1980s. Appleās first attempt was the Macintosh Portable in 1989, which weighed 16 pounds and cost $6,500. The iPad arrived in 2010, 27 years late. He guessed voice recognition was about a decade away. Siri launched in 2011, nearly 30 years later. The vision was right every time. The clock was wrong every time.
Apple was doing about $1 billion a year in revenue when Jobs gave this talk, with under 5,000 employees. Today itās worth $3.7 trillion.
Me: What data was used to train Sora? YouTube videos?
OpenAI CTO: I'm actually not sure about that...
(I really do encourage you to watch the full @WSJ interview where Murati did answer a lot of the biggest questions about Sora. Full interview, ironically, on YouTube: https://t.co/R5S3ouScbE)
It's cause for celebration. š„³
ALL ChatGPT Plus users finally have access to DALL-E 3!
Some incredible discoveries have already been made.
Here are 12 of the best examples I've found:
I'm sorry, folks, but the Twitter API stopped working for this bot about a month ago, so the last percentage might forever be:
āāāāāāāāāāāāāāā 47%
(It is now, in fact, 58%.)
A cheat code I wish I knew at 18...
The 4 Types of Luck:
In 1978, a neurologist named Dr. James Austin published a book entitled Chase, Chance, & Creativity: The Lucky Art of Novelty.
In it, he proposed that there are 4 types of luck:
(1) Blind Luck
(2) Luck from Motion
(3) Luck from Awareness
(4) Luck from Uniqueness
Here's what they are:
Type 1: Blind Luck
Completely out of your control:
⢠Where you are born
⢠Who you are born to
⢠Base circumstances of your life
⢠"Acts of God"
These are the truly random occurrences of the universe.
Type 2: Luck from Motion
Youāre creating motion and collisions through hustle and energy that you are inserting into an ecosystem.
You increase your luck surface area through simple movement.
The increase in collisions opens you up to more lucky events.
Type 3: Luck from Awareness
Depth of understanding within a given arena allows you to become very good at positioning yourself for lucky breaks.
Naval says: "You become very good at spotting luck."
You can āspot luckā from a mile away because of your knowledge and experience.
Type 4: Luck from Uniqueness
Your unique set of attributes attracts specific luck to you.
ā[This type] favors those with distinctive, if not eccentric hobbies, personal lifestyles, and motor behaviors.ā - Dr. James Austin
Type 4 Luck actually seeks you out.
The Stages of Luck
I personally think of Types 1-3 as coming in stages as you grow up:
⢠Type 1 dictates your early years
⢠Type 2 as you hustle in your 20
⢠Type 3 as you gain experience in your 30s+
Type 4 is uniqueāitās dislocated from age.
Always remember the Luck Razor:
When choosing between two paths, choose the path that has a larger LUCK SURFACE AREA.
Your actions put you in a position where luck is more likely to strike.
Itās hard to get lucky watching TV at homeāitās easy to get lucky when youāre engaging and learning.
There are lots of simple ways to increase your luck surface area:
⢠Talk to more new people
⢠Send more cold emails
⢠Write/share in public
⢠Participate in digital communities
⢠Spend time in rooms where you feel like the dumb one
To recap the 4 types of luck:
⢠Type 1: Blind Luck
⢠Type 2: Luck from Motion
⢠Type 3: Luck from Awareness
⢠Type 4: Luck from Uniqueness
If you enjoyed this and learned something new, follow me @SahilBloom for more in the future!
I was laid off from Twitter today. I was the designer in charge of our new rebranding to X.
I learned so much in my 2.5 weeks at the company but Iām excited to see where I land next.
If youāre hiring a self taught, junior designer please DM me. Graphic design is my passion!