Tim Joslin 🇺🇦

Economics, politics, geopolitics, climate change, chess. Independent thinker blogging at .

Likes, follows, even RTs, don't imply endorsement.

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

@Met4CastUK @MetJam_ No, Spring 2026 didn't break the previous record by a wide margin - 2024 did. There are 3 blobs close together in the top right of @MetJam_'s graph, representing 2024, 2025 and 2026. Cf.:
https://t.co/ucclIQj0tB

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

@peacockreports The other recent warmer springs (2007, 2011, 2017 etc) and the steeply rising mean spring temperature since around 1980 also suggest a change in climate.

https://t.co/p4Hrng1rvo

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

Spring 2026 was the hottest in entire Central England Temperature (CET) record from 1659.
2nd hottest? 2025.
3rd hottest? 2024!
Graph with 5, 11 and 21 year running means, also all records:
https://t.co/ucclIQj0tB

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

Spring 2026 was the hottest in entire Central England Temperature (CET) record from 1659.
2nd hottest? 2025.
3rd hottest? 2024!
Graph with 5, 11 and 21 year running means, also all records:
https://t.co/ucclIQj0tB

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

@wanstead_meteo Same nationally:

https://t.co/2LkMdvntjt

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

At 35.1C, 26th May 2026 has been hotter than it has been in the UK on any date until 31(!) days later (26th June 1976 was hotter); at one point 1st July 2015 was hotter than until 33(!!) days later.

Heatwaves are hotter now!

https://t.co/Bweh83uqgq

https://t.co/KDXnfUSNTH

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

@nw3weather Nothing from 1976?

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

@PaulBlight6 Not just a new UK record for May, but the hottest until 31(!) days later (26th June 1976 was hotter).

https://t.co/2LkMdvntjt

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

At 35.1C, 26th May 2026 has been hotter than it has been in the UK on any date until 31(!) days later (26th June 1976 was hotter); at one point 1st July 2015 was hotter than until 33(!!) days later.

Heatwaves are hotter now!

https://t.co/Bweh83uqgq

https://t.co/KDXnfUSNTH

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

At 35.1C, 26th May 2026 has been hotter than it has been in the UK on any date until 31(!) days later (26th June 1976 was hotter); at one point 1st July 2015 was hotter than until 33(!!) days later.

Heatwaves are hotter now!

https://t.co/Bweh83uqgq

https://t.co/KDXnfUSNTH

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

Had to write about the ridiculous heat and update my list of UK highest temperature date records (hottest so early in the year):

https://t.co/taJuFKEbmS

Moral: prepare for worse!

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

Had to write about the ridiculous heat and update my list of UK highest temperature date records (hottest so early in the year):

https://t.co/taJuFKEbmS

Moral: prepare for worse!

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

@SaulStaniforth Water privatisation has been a complete screw up. But whether the industry is nationalised now or not won't change the fact that we need to spend a shitload of cash (via bills) cleaning up the rivers, modernising the system, improving resilience etc.

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

@NicholasTyrone I think the margin of victory is also very important, i.e. how well Reform do, assuming they come second. A narrow win might derail Burnham's leadership bid.

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

It's 'cos he's trying to shaft Andy, Lisa. Honestly!

https://t.co/sYgT3qzdIl

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

Sorry, GE!

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

Did the NEC carry out a risk analysis before capitulating? Andy might lose, so ~1/3 chance we get a month of distraction + gov't (and business) inaction and Reform is better off; 50:50 he's worse than SKS, even Trusses it or is forced into an early GM for legitimacy... 1/2

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

@forwardnotback I also don't think Labour are in a good place if Andy only wins narrowly.

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

@forwardnotback Good point

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

@RupaHuq @AndyBurnhamGM @UKLabour By that logic we could have a leadership election every week at the whim of a few swing voters on the NEC. Operation Andy is panic and absurdly risky.

https://t.co/HD9zr4xyp9

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

Did the NEC carry out a risk analysis before capitulating? Andy might lose, so ~1/3 chance we get a month of distraction + gov't (and business) inaction and Reform is better off; 50:50 he's worse than SKS, even Trusses it or is forced into an early GM for legitimacy... 1/2

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

So say (generously) a 1/3 chance we end up with a "better" PM - at the cost, after a leadership election, of several months of inaction.

But even then Andy will be in a Reform marginal and compromised on (at least) his EU and immigration positions. 2/2

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

@benjaminbutter Come on, mate! Streeting needs Burnham to trigger a leadership election - which he (Streeting) thinks he (Streeting) can win - because he (Streeting) hasn't got 81 MP votes and Burnham most probably has. Capisce?

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

If Attenborough wasn't busy celebrating his 100th we could have had a hushed voiceover:

"The dominant male has seen off his challenger. For now. But another pretender is waiting in the wings. He must first earn the right to take on the pack leader..."

https://t.co/Qaxhv6bwxY

[Robert Peston @Peston]

I think we can safely assume that the next truly compelling episode in Labour’s real-time soap opera, entitled “Get Starmer”, will be the by-election in Makerfield.

Subject to Labour’s ruling NEC allowing Andy Burnham to stand there - and Downing St says the prime minister has dropped his objections, so permission will be given - Burnham’s sotto voce campaign slogan will be unusual.

It will be “Vote Burnham to sack Starmer.”

This is both Burnham and Starmer genuinely rolling the dice.

That’s not just because Burnham is way more popular than Starmer among Labour members and trade union leaders, and probably more popular among MPs too.

It’s because Burnham and his fans characterise him as the answer to Farage and Reform. And on the basis of last week’s local election results, Makerfield is now a Reform heartland, having previously been part of the Labour Red Wall.

So if Burnham loses, maybe he’s not the answer to all Labour’s woes, and Starmer survives - possibly even to fight the next election (though his critics believe Streeting and Rayner would precipitate a leadership election even after a Burnham defeat).

But if Burnham wins, Starmer should book the removal vans as soon as the Makerfield count is over. Because those members, MPs and trade union leaders would carry Burnham shoulder-high into Number 10, and Starmer would be binned.

So Starmer seems to be in the uncomfortable position of being a bystander in the events that will shape his own destiny.

And as for the country, there are weeks more of destabilising uncertainty about who is really in charge, or will be running this place just weeks from now.

Makerfield will make history, one way or another.

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

Starmer should continue to deliver the 2024 manifesto. The party should meanwhile prepare it's 2029 manifesto - e.g. EU CU and SM - and around Conference 2028 choose who - Starmer, Burnham, Streeting, Carn or ? - should lead it into that election. 2/2

[Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 @TimMJoslin]

Excuse me if I'm being thick, but isn't Wes simply acknowledging that the Labour consensus is that now - 2026 - is not the time to change leader and that his position is therefore untenable? 1/2

https://t.co/kCBVOsHTqo

[Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak]

Streeting stops short of saying there has to be a contest now - says needs to be a broad 'battle of ideas' - but would be dishonourable for him to stay in govt given he lost faith in PM's leadership