$HIMS holders had some pretty tough weeks.
Even after positive Peptide news and a strong earnings report, the stock dumped and put investors through some painful days.
Weak hands were shaken out, frustration peaked and sentiment became absolutely miserable - especially last week after earnings.
To me, that looked like classic bottoming behavior.
The reversal is now underway.
To $40 we go.
Thanks for playing.
My conversation on @SquawkCNBC covered everything from how we make accessing care more affordable to how AI is transforming healthcare, and why data is the most powerful tool we have for putting people in charge of their own health.
But more than anything, we discussed how dramatically different experiences can be on a platform that knows you well enough to help you act long before you're in a crisis.
When healthcare feels like concierge medicine without costing like it, that’s when real transformation starts. Great to chat with you, @andrewrsorkin.
https://t.co/062aRxKCnB
🚨 $HIMS CEO ANDREW DUDUM ON THE FTC LAWSUIT
Dudum: "We've worked for many years with the FTC to walk them through [our digital ecosystem]. And I think ultimately they wanted more of a headline than a real agreement here."
Sorkin: "We saw it early on with Uber. When you're trying to transform something, there are companies that will oftentimes either break established rules because they don't think the rules are the right rules, but they're still breaking rules. Is it different in the healthcare space? And should it be?"
Dudum: "It is different. I do not think you break rules in the healthcare space. I think you need to understand the rules, and I think you need to push to the boundaries you can on behalf of consumers."
"Because so much of healthcare is built in every way to financially drive value for everyone but consumers. And so I think that is a role we take, where we are active disruptors. We take that head on and we're willing to do it, but it is always when we believe it's in the best interest of people and their access."
MY COMPLETE THOUGHTS ON $HIMS Q2 EARNINGS (PART 1):
After going through the report and earnings call, I think this was a MUCH more interesting quarter than the initial stock reaction suggests.
Was it perfect? Absolutely not.
But when I look at the numbers that matter most to my long-term thesis, I actually liked a lot of what I saw… and I am even more bullish on the longterm story.
Let’s start with the two most important operating metrics:
1) Subscribers increased 19% Y/Y to 2.89M.
2) Monthly revenue per subscriber increased to a RECORD $92.
That second number is extremely important. ARPU was $74 just one year ago.
That’s roughly 24% growth Y/Y and means $HIMS is not only growing the number of people using the platform… it is generating substantially more revenue from each subscriber.
This is exactly what I’ve wanted to see as the business expands into higher-value personalized care.
And when you combine subscriber growth with higher monetization, you get the next number:
Revenue increased to roughly $738M, up 35% Y/Y.
More importantly, growth REACCELERATED significantly from the 4% Y/Y growth reported in Q1.
One of the biggest questions coming into this quarter was what the underlying growth profile of $HIMS would look like following the GLP-1 transition.
We’re starting to get that answer…
International was another major positive.
International revenue increased from $78M in Q1 to $131M in Q2.
That’s roughly 68% Q/Q growth.
And management now expects international revenue to reach approximately $600M for the FULL YEAR.
If they hit that, roughly $391M would need to come during Q3 and Q4 alone.
The Eucalyptus acquisition obviously contributed significantly here… including to subscriber growth… so I’m not pretending all of this was organic.
But that’s exactly why $HIMS acquired the business.
They now have an international platform they can use to accelerate expansion outside the U.S., and we’re already beginning to see what that can look like.
Then we get to guidance.
Management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to 3.1B-$3.3B.
At the midpoint, that’s 3.2B.
That’s important because despite everything that has happened around GLP-1s this year, management is now expecting MORE revenue than it did earlier in the year.
So from a top-line perspective:
- Subscribers +19%.
- ARPU +24%.
- Revenue +35%.
- International accelerating.
- Full-year revenue guidance raised.
Those are the numbers I liked.
Now let’s talk about what I DIDN’T like… because there were legitimate weaknesses.
The headline EPS number was ugly.
$HIMS reported a loss of $0.37/share and the stock initially fell toward $30 because of it.
But I don’t think that headline EPS number tells the entire story of the quarter.
A substantial portion of the GAAP loss came from acquisition-related accounting, including the remeasurement of Eucalyptus-related contingent consideration.
That doesn’t mean we should completely ignore the loss. Profitability absolutely weakened. Margins are under pressure. $HIMS is spending aggressively and the company is clearly prioritizing investment over maximizing near-term earnings.
That is the tradeoff investors have to accept right now.
This isn’t currently the clean, rapidly expanding-margin story that $HIMS was becoming previously.
2026 is turning into an investment/transition year.
But here’s the distinction I’m making:
If profitability was deteriorating because subscriber growth was collapsing, ARPU was falling and revenue expectations were being cut…
I’d be extremely concerned.
That’s not what happened.
Instead, $HIMS is experiencing near-term profitability pressure while subscribers are growing, ARPU is hitting records, revenue is growing 35%, international is scaling and management is RAISING its revenue outlook.
Those are two completely different situations.
And that’s why despite understanding the selloff, this quarter did not break the long-term thesis at all.
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Para conseguirlo hay que gestionar más de 10 millones de dólares bajo copia, mantener un historial consistente, un perfil de riesgo controlado y cumplir los exigentes requisitos del programa.
Nunca imaginé que llegaría hasta aquí cuando empecé compartiendo mi cartera 😇
Gracias a las más de 1.400 personas que habéis decidido confiar en mí y a todo el que me sigue día a día!
Esta estrella negra también es vuestra.
Ahora toca seguir haciendo lo mismo que nos ha traído hasta aquí: analizar empresas, gestionar el riesgo y pensar siempre en el largo plazo. 🚀
Tambien gracias a @eToroES por darme las máximas herramientas para poder ser cada día mejor inversor!