Tom Russell-Mésenge

Cybersecurity Strategy Consultant. Channel Swimmer 🤽‍♂️🥊 🇫🇷🇬🇧 Wargaming and MTG card enjoyer. #COYL Views my own not my employer’s.

[Tom Russell-Mésenge @TomPRM]

2026 is going to be a great year for Britain

[Tom Russell-Mésenge @TomPRM]

2025 is going to be a great year for Britain

[JD Vance @JDVance]

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.

So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."

Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.

There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.

But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.

Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:

1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel

Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)

In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.

The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.

If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.

But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.

I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

[David Betz @DavidBe31099196]

During the last Tory government I was invited by a defence minister, it doesn’t matter which one, all goofs, to speak in his office about their then strategy and defence review, it doesn’t matter which one, all crap. I was flattered though. I brought along a copy of Imperial Military Geography, I think 1935 edition, my point being that you must decide the war for which you are preparing and then take stock of your resources and that is exactly what the people who won WW2 did.

I said that you must not assume that some other power was going to deliver capability you needed but did not possess organically. That included assumptions about the USA and other powers. A nation state like Britain had to start from an honest calculation of its resources and capabilities relative to its interests and capabilities.

As of 2026 this seems pretty obvious. At the time, the minister’s political advisor sat at his shoulder rolling his eyes at practically everything I said like I was an escapee from a lunatic asylum. The minister, a political man, shook my hand warmly and I’ve never spoken to a minister again.

The moral of the story is not that the minister and his advisor was stupid. They were blind, but it’s a kind of blindness that afflicts smart people who are too smart by half so that they never question their assumptions because they’re too convinced of what they think they know.

[Tom Russell-Mésenge @TomPRM]

When boardgame listicles go wrong https://t.co/zQIJaMukFP

[Tom Russell-Mésenge @TomPRM]

@toyologist #boardgames #gaming #games #recommended

[Tom Russell-Mésenge @TomPRM]

When boardgame listicles go wrong https://t.co/zQIJaMukFP

[Iain Mansfield @IGMansfield]

Every civil servant worth his salt believes he could move to the private sector and earn 50% more.

I certainly thought so - yet my experience was rather more humbling.

A piece on how success shouts its name to the world, but failure is invisible.

https://t.co/5a1EhSHcJN

[Tom Russell-Mésenge @TomPRM]

Thanks @thepchapin - looking forward to reading! #nextlevelmagic

[くまたろう @EleshNorn47]

歴代スタンダード禁止

[Tom Russell-Mésenge @TomPRM]

@bnzchr You can always trust the Swiss-Germans to get it right.

[Anton Hofmiller @bnzchr]

Gianni Infantino’s vulgar, grasping, Italian-Swiss corruption really does make one long for the halcyon days of Sepp Blatter and his elegant, refined, German-Swiss corruption.

[Tom Russell-Mésenge @TomPRM]

@Discoplomacy This doesn’t strike me as that much cash in the grand scheme of things

[Paul Embery @PaulEmbery]

A brilliantly accurate dissection of England’s self-destruction. Every word is spot on.

[François Valentin @Valen10Francois]

Time to support our Norman colony 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

[Tom Russell-Mésenge @TomPRM]

@freddiesayers @NewStatesman Even the crooked photo

[Tom Russell-Mésenge @TomPRM]

@Rubicon_Press Do you not ship to the UK?

[Ætheling of The North 🌹🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🇩🇪 @DarkSoulz449AD]

Pov: You're a Dane who just landed in Northumbria thinking there's more monks to kill and rob, then you encounter a 6'8 Anglo shithouse.

[Tom Russell-Mésenge @TomPRM]

@BasicMountain Your boys took one hell of a beating.

[Tom Russell-Mésenge @TomPRM]

@apprentice8980 @Madz_Grant Maddy is the main reason to listen, if only to add some candour instead of the insipid Tory revisionist personified.

[Tom Russell-Mésenge @TomPRM]

@Sierkovitz I couldn’t do it to myself to have several Ninja turtle jittes, bought a few copies of the list version for £8-9.