Tom Porter

Investment writer in asset management. Formerly @SPGMarketIntel & @Reuters. Opinions my own, considering them investment advice would be foolish.

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

⚠️ A noisy UK CPI report. Overall core CPI was on the hot side for Jan. But driven by goods (95th %tile for Jan), whilst services was soft (45th %tile). Worryingly inflation breadth was high for Jan (50% of basket running at >2.5% inflation). Doesn't support faster BoE cuts $GBP

[Alberto Gallo @macrocredit]

Two @bankofengland MPC members wanted a 50bp cut at the last meeting.

[Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky]

There’s a dramatic sound Reuters red snap suggesting a change of approach by the Chancellor to the Spring Statement.

But Reeves doesn’t actually say “new fiscal measures” and I’m told the approach is unchanged. It isn’t a fiscal event, which means there can’t be tax rises

[Tom Porter @TomPorterTF]

Not now California

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

CALIFORNIA REPORTS POSSIBLE BIRD FLU CASE IN CHILD WITH MILD SYMPTOMS, SAYS STATE HEALTH DEPARTMENT

[Mario Cavaggioni @CavaggioniMario]

UK PMIs

Manufacturing 50.3 (est 51.5, last 51.5)
Services 51.8 (est 52.4,last 52.6)
Composite 51.7 (est 52.5, last 52.6)

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

This year in a nutshell via @psarofagis

[Victoria Guida @vtg2]

Trump on the Fed chair: "Look I think it’s the greatest job in government. You show up to the office once a month, and you say let’s see, flip a coin, and everybody talks about you like you’re a god."

[Samuel Tombs @samueltombs]

The response rate for the first estimate of September payrolls was extraordinarily low, suggesting considerable scope for a downward revision:

[Katie Greifeld @kgreifeld]

*US SEPT. NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE 254,000 M/M; EST. +150K
*US SEPT. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%; EST. 4.2%

and a revision HIGHER!
*US SEPT. TWO-MONTH PAYROLL NET REVISION ADDS 72,000

[Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud]

🇺🇸 *US SEPT. ISM SERVICES PMI RISES TO 54.9 VS. 51.5; EST. 51.7 - BBG
*US ISM SERVICES PMI HIGHEST SINCE FEB. 2023

*TREASURY YIELDS EXTEND CLIMB AFTER ISM SERVICES TOPS ESTIMATE

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

JPM DESK:

“.. Over the past 40 years, the Fed has cut rates 12 times with the S&P 500 within 1% of an all-time highs. The market was higher a year later all 12 times with an average return of around 15%.” 🇺🇸

#FOMC

[Frederik Ducrozet @fwred]

🇺🇸 Fed pricing vs. previous easing cycles.

[Tom Porter @TomPorterTF]

I would simply cut by 37.5bp

[Reuters Business @ReutersBiz]

JPMorgan stock slumps as interest income warning rattles market https://t.co/Mkce4Snd8v

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

2s10s no longer inverted

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

⚠️ US vacancies-to-unemployment ratio looks to be in freefall right now. On its own... tips the balance of risks towards faster front-loaded cuts. Let's see what the Aug jobs report looks like $USD

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

Great answer from @AdamPosen https://t.co/55Vq9CHHxg

[Markets Insider @MktsInsider]

A small mining firm just saw its stock surge 91% after it discovered the world's 2nd-largest diamond https://t.co/aasm1nHahQ

[Robert Armstrong @rbrtrmstrng]

Risk assets are back, and then some.
https://t.co/7vmp264B3r

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

About 59,000 home-purchase agreements were canceled in July, which equals 15.8% of homes that went under contract that month ... highest percentage of any July on record per ⁦@Redfin⁩