@respeculator@YellowLabLife If you’re positioning for met coal price upside surely Warrior is a much better place to be? If coal price doubles Qld Gov takes half of that for SMR
@respeculator I’m a bit of a Capricorn bear. They’ve been trying to make it work for long enough even before water issues - at $3/lb it was $4/lb would work and now it seems to need $5/lb. Agree on the long term option play but their balance sheet may not be best placed to house that
@BuBarrelBull@Mark_IKN Yep I think so. My prediction is GLEN won’t exist in its current form within 24 months, too much smoke. Maybe they do try do something with Vale Base Metals next.. not many merger trees left to shake..
@ArrakisGlobal Sadly this last point captures one reason for big M&A… easiest way to get generalist dollars is just to be the biggest via mergers rather than doing all the hard work. Combined Rio-Glen gets a bigger share of passive ETF flows too.. sweetener rather than key driver though
@BuBarrelBull@Mark_IKN They definitely don’t want to spin coal without bulking up RumpCo, because it’d just be value destructive. Longer term, I think many GLEN shareholders who would love to own coal standalone… 2nd major merger considered in 24 months tells you something + assessed Anglo (so 3rd..)
@BuBarrelBull@Mark_IKN Glencore like to think of themselves as best of the best, and they are in many senses. But if they got rid of coal without adding scale then from a size perspective they wind up closer to Anglo and Teck than BHP and RIO, which was always unpalatable to them