Tortoise Capital

Master of Coin, Supreme Lord of Capital, High Chancellor of Elite Finance, Commander of Derivatives, Conqueror of Markets, and Protector of the Realm

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

Everything is either long or short vol, once you see optionality you can't unsee it.

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

@BickerinBrattle @elonmusk I mean at what price he would be willing to sell his shares. How much one would have to pay for a successful hostile takeover.

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

Quadrillioners shouldn't exist

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

@PolemicTMM That's great until they impose a wealth tax

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

Looks like @matt_levine nailed it by predicting a perfect 20% first day pop

[Matt Levine @matt_levine]

There is no such thing as too much when it comes to one of the most ambitious newsletters that’s ever existed. https://t.co/oFzCKBTP4v

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

@DanNeidle Short term probably VAT. Medium/long term and more lasting, probably corporation tax. I would go for the latter, plus remove all the silly tapering of allowances to avoid distortions.

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

@6_Figure_Invest Zero or positive spot-vol correlation is not typical for indices, particularly SPX, but it's not a first, it has happened several times before. A bit surprising that it caused so much damage.

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

@PolemicTMM or alternatively split a city into two parts with two separate policies, and build a wall between them

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

@RooBear4 @Thesecretinves2 @saylor If your broker does their job correctly (filing a form with the IRS after the company confirms the ROC status) this withholding will be refunded in the beginning of next year.

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

@Thesecretinves2 @saylor If investing via a limited company, the default treatment of dividends as ordinary and not ROC is better, as dividends are tax free. Also, the US treatment as ROC means no withholding tax from the IRS (which would be irrevocably lost), so it's the best of both worlds.

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

I'm old enough to remember a Bloomberg event for oil market outlook (less than a month ago!), where consensus was expecting average Brent crude prices for the year around $60.
Even the answer options were bearish biased, with only one answer for >$65.
How things change!

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

HOW OIL COULD SURGE TO $200 AND BEYOND

@tracyalloway and I talk with @Rory_Johnston -- typically one of the least-alarmist people in oil -- about how the longer the Straight of Hormuz is shut, the greater the likelihood of an almost unimaginable disaster https://t.co/Qk7q5PZpk9

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

@matt_levine Great as always Matt. One comment on binary options: if they replace 0dte options, they will increase volatility around the unchanged mark but reduce it for large moves, as once the market is confirmed up or down, the MM hedging is done so no more market impact.

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

@TheStalwart it just did a doubling actually

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

@rcolvile There's an easy solution: set face value at £1m per ticket with a 99%+ discount for online purchases. Supply and demand continue to decide p* with a cap at £1m.

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

@PT_Analyst @Hawkeye_74 On top of that, stocks earnings rise with inflation so a fair comparison is with index linked gilts, not nominal ones

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

@Councillorsuzie @TfL It's an admission of defeat but tbh it's much better than people going through the barriers anyway and causing delays to fare paying customers in the process.

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

Headline about Google to invest 5bn caught my attention, as 5bn is rounding error for megacap companies AI investment these days. Hadn't noticed the £ sign upfront and the full headline (... in UK). Now it makes sense, although still sad that £5bn investment for UK is newsworthy.

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

@tc1415 The broader point is correct, but the particular swap advocated here wouldn't have made a difference. Long dated index linked gilts were trading at negative yields at the time and have moved more or less in sync with nominal gilts since then.

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

@grok @TheSecretAcct @grenville_1 @grok what's the NPV of tube drivers pay + benefits and how does it compare to the £20B cost estimate to replace them?

[Tortoise Capital @TortoiseCapital]

@TheSecretAcct It will be a great trade to short that fixed supply currency and wait for the eventual increase of its supply