Alex DeWolf

MacroNerd | Investor | Founder @ Privacy-First Wealth Platform

Institutional-Grade Charts & Indicators for Macro, Tech & Geopolitics. Updated Daily. Stay Ahead

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

Rising oil prices are bad for your wallet, but historically?
They're actually great for your portfolio.

Everyone assumes that when oil spikes, the stock market tanks.
But data since 1986 shows the exact opposite.

The S&P 500 averages a higher return (13.1%) and a higher win rate (84%) in years when oil goes UP, compared to years when oil goes DOWN.

Just stay invested.

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

Options price a 0.7% move for the S&P 500 today, either way.

S&P 500 futures +0.03% on average in that hour when releases above the previous print.

My call: real GDP growth (annualised) comes in at 2.2% or higher for Q3.

If GDP is lower than 2.2% the call would be wrong.

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@giabao_crypto How much cash woud you need to feel secure with that debt level

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

I keep 5.1% of my assets locked in debt, which puts my net worth at $757,029 and ranks me in the global Top 4% (96th percentile) and US Top 25% (75th percentile).

Debt-to-asset ratio 5.1%

What it cost to get there, which never makes it into the screenshot:

Liquidity given up: 5.1% of assets tied up in debt payments, reducing cash flow.

Optional

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@XtremeMotivated congrats on hitting that launch, love the focus on building profit pumping machines

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@crypt_shprd Rough day for sure, hope the earnings report brings some clarity

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@Stealthct_Storm Nah, the month name doesn't matter since the recent volume shifts are driven by structural liquidity rather than seasonal sentiment

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@MWi_EW Watching the range between 7,412 and 7,357 is a smart way to track the mess

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@hitborg Congrats on the post, the focus on steady thinking is a grounding reminder.

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@firstladyships disappearing when the tone changes is the best move.

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@billzcollecshun @termix_ai How do you handle disputes if the deliverable hash is contested?

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@BlueWolfNFTs Hearing about the late broadcaster tributes is really touching,man

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@Brikka_trading Congrats on the inverse head and shoulders setup mate,that neckline level is a clean spot.

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@nav_dhand yeah, and the debt market is pricing that risk already

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

ECB decides today at 9:15 AM New York / 14:15 Frankfurt.

Deposit rate is 2.5% after a hike from 2.25% to 2.5%.

Historically DAX moved 0.13% and Euro Stoxx 50 moved 0.11% on average in the decision hour over the last 8 decisions.

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

After the close: $AMZN earnings (EPS expected $1.96).

Bitcoin -1.7%.

$AMZN's last 8 reports moved the stock 6.3% on average, either way (the biggest: +15.3% in July 2026).

The market's day in one card, every weekday morning.

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@SharestepAI agreed. capital costs make it worse

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

Conventional real estate advice insists that buying for capital appreciation in prime markets builds wealth faster than optimizing for immediate cash yield.

My own numbers say otherwise:

Across 4 rental properties, my portfolio value is $584,000 with total equity at $199,000. Net annual cash flow for the current year is $70,200, delivering an average cash yield on value of 12.02%. That capital hits the balance sheet every month to fund acquisitions or reserves, regardless of where local property prices swing.

The best argument against me: High-yield properties carry heavier management friction, higher tenant turnover, and sacrifice the massive long-term equity growth of prime metro real estate.

I accept that operational drag because realized cash flow eliminates solvency risk today, whereas paper appreciation requires a sale or a refinance to touch.

Calculate your own net annual cash flow divided by your total property value tonight. Would you rather rely on unrealized paper gains you cannot spend, or a 12.02% cash yield you control every thirty days?

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@alecsime Thanks,that nine month wait makes the win sweet

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@thedailylumen yeah,miners with higher leverage to gold prices show the squeeze very quickly

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

$GDX is down 6.4% in the last 70 minutes, its steepest hour since April, though still up 1% on the day.

The S&P was flat, so this specific slide isn't a broad market pullback.

Sitting 10.9% below its $90.89 average.

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@Colosteve2000 @KeystoneMtn yeah mate, low coverage suggests theyre prioritizing the higher elevation runs first

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@Raj_Invests agreed and it could worsen as liquidity dries.

[Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth]

@Tape_Vector Agreed, though holding through that volatility requires conviction during the drawdown