TraderBot888

Tard-fi market maker posting shit trading ideas on Twitter.

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

Am long too but don't think these recent AI developments with muse etc. are that great for gold. Gold had its massive run from oct to jan where nasdaq/mag7 basically bearishly chopped and capital had nowhere else to hide. If ai bullishness is renewed then yields keep going higher which is bearish both bonds and gold. People would rather hold naz in that case. Hopefully im just being gay and this is a bottom

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

@lazyvillager1 great trade wp

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

have not looked into extended or risex properly so cant comment.

Regarding var, think the bullposts are mostly influencers trying to pump their own bags. I am basically permabearish on anything that is not a CLOB. This is a long term view ofc, in the short term supply/demand/flow dynamics trump everything

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

Almost a month later and my plan hasn't really changed. General bias is still that it will be hard for us to break out and rocket to new highs with mid-terms looming so close, but I've decided to not derisk the range highs because I feel that it is bad r/r to sell and attempt to buy 10% lower when my 1Y+ targets are significantly higher.

Mid-terms are historically volatile periods and any systematic derisking during these periods should be viewed as gifts for great entries, especially since BTC will probably be used as a proxy asset for trading election odds. My personal plan is to convert a percentage of my spot into calls if a dip in mid-October is given, plus I want to establish some proper spot positions in a select few altcoins, especially LIT.

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

Was sidelined for the bottom candle and have started to build partial spot pos back. Bought about 1/4 of my intended size at around 76k avg. Feels horrible knowing we were trading at low 60s just a week ago but I still believe this area should be good r/r in the grand scheme of things. If anything, the fact that this move was such a crazy lockout and we are pulling back from almost 80k vs. pulling back from say low 70s to mid 60s gives me higher confidence that this is the start of a new bull market. I'm about 85% confident that the bottom is in, barring some kind of FTX level fraud that I think is unwise to bet on.

If you agree with my probability that the bottom is in and have a target of ATH, full Kelly suggests leverage but full Kelly is obviously a degenerate (and doesn't take into account borrowing costs among other things). I will be doing far less size also because I am about 50% port Gold (chased Gold quite hard after missing the BTC lockout rip) after rotating all my equity exposure and Gold and BTC are likely going to be quite correlated moving forward.

Think the last hurdle is mid-terms and it is quite probable that we get a dip on that, especially with how aggressive the Democrats have been in their anti-crypto stance. But my plan there is to bid the rest of my intended spot size at low/mid 70s if given, and even rotate some spot into long dated calls if the levels make sense and look for a higher low setup, rather than sit on the sidelines waiting for this dip that may or may not come.

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

@thoughtsAreMin1 Have not looked into this, any suggestions?

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

No doubt that is a headwind. My bias comes more so as a user of the platform, was late to the party but started trading on it ~2 weeks ago and am already using it more than HL. As someone with a HFT background I am bullish on its fee choice model and think it results in greater liquidity and volumes over the long run. Current mcap also makes it an appealing higher beta bet compared to some of the larger caps or BTC where upside is probably capped. Still risky though for sure

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

@Evan_ss6 Your article would've been some insane timing if this all plays out so soon

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

@Wild_Randomness amazing how this thing manages to make new lows every 4 seconds

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

Have been twapping more during this consolidation over the past week and mostly have my desired spot size. Not the entry I was hoping for but oh well we ride. Still think a sharp dip from mid term fears is a good spot to load up on longer dated calls

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

Was sidelined for the bottom candle and have started to build partial spot pos back. Bought about 1/4 of my intended size at around 76k avg. Feels horrible knowing we were trading at low 60s just a week ago but I still believe this area should be good r/r in the grand scheme of things. If anything, the fact that this move was such a crazy lockout and we are pulling back from almost 80k vs. pulling back from say low 70s to mid 60s gives me higher confidence that this is the start of a new bull market. I'm about 85% confident that the bottom is in, barring some kind of FTX level fraud that I think is unwise to bet on.

If you agree with my probability that the bottom is in and have a target of ATH, full Kelly suggests leverage but full Kelly is obviously a degenerate (and doesn't take into account borrowing costs among other things). I will be doing far less size also because I am about 50% port Gold (chased Gold quite hard after missing the BTC lockout rip) after rotating all my equity exposure and Gold and BTC are likely going to be quite correlated moving forward.

Think the last hurdle is mid-terms and it is quite probable that we get a dip on that, especially with how aggressive the Democrats have been in their anti-crypto stance. But my plan there is to bid the rest of my intended spot size at low/mid 70s if given, and even rotate some spot into long dated calls if the levels make sense and look for a higher low setup, rather than sit on the sidelines waiting for this dip that may or may not come.

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

@lazyvillager1 Guess we have different feeds then because my entire timeline is filled with people saying 1k+ anytime and zec is the equivalent of btc in 2019 etc. etc.

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

@lBattleRhino Agree great to see stuff like this. Meanwhile for every one of these guys there's 15 gaylords retweeting some small spot purchase tweet from May for clout while conveniently leaving out their last 2 months of bearposts

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

@zeroxkyle Miss @Tyler_Neville_ used to think he was just a long ape but guy has a lot of valuable insights and learned heaps from him. That concentric circles of adoption bit was a great one that made a lot of sense

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

@skyquake_1 Fugg it just notional matched, have 3 brain cells anyway no point overthinking

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

@skyquake_1 Seems like going in with a stop above that 50% premium wick targetting a reversion to 15-20% premium or something is not the most retarded trade around, question is how are you treating the delta?

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

@lazyvillager1 glad youre back, hope youve been well mr giver

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

1. Get bored
2. Consider a trade you don't really believe in
3. Put the SL closer and TP arbitrarily higher to convince yourself it's good r/r
4. Go in and stop out or manually hack out within 24 hours

Find that my best trades are always no hard stops but just sized in because I have high conviction on direction, never on the r/r component

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

Exited 1020, thanks for playing

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

Exited 1020, thanks for playing

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

Longed Kospi again ~ 880 for much larger size, earlier thesis from the this tweet thread is still in play, but the country has just been marked down by an additional 10%. Obviously got lucky with this vibes-based early-session exit.

Chart looks and smells like total capitulation to me, and with the entire country of Korea being marked down 20% in 3 days I think a lot of the FOMC risk has already been frontrun. Am looking for the low from ~2 hours ago to hold especially considering it was a refill of the wick after volatility halt, but I am just going to hold this thing into FOMC and maybe even swing it afterwards. Think we have good odds to get a violent relief rally over the next few weeks/months (check all the charts from 2000 for example).

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

Fun bounce from the lows which probably caught a lot of people by surprise given the shit Hynix earnings, but that's just what happens when things are this oversold going into such an event. Don't really like pushing my luck further into FOMC so exited around 980, also my entry which I thought would be a local bottom turned out to be quite shit in hindsight. Onto the next

[TraderBot888 @TraderBot888]

Trimming ~30% at 930 since I really oversized this one, holding the rest