xero

I love fixed income and 🇭🇰

Yesterday’s consensus trades are today’s disasters.

[xero @TradingandMore]

1/ thread on what happened in bond markets this week

By now most people know that liquidity in financial markets this week, especially in the second part of the week, has been terrible across assets. Even super liquid UST saw liquidity dried up at some point. It’s important to

[xero @TradingandMore]

@PolymarketFC 1/10

[xero @TradingandMore]

@bneiluj @Maverick_Equity

[xero @TradingandMore]

@TheHullTrader @zerohedge Fed has cut rates on 29 Oct with effective date 30 Oct. That 23 bps drop in SOFR is mainly reflecting that cut.

[xero @TradingandMore]

@WaterstarRunner is there a link for this?

[Sunchartist @sunchartist]

Onshore CNY liquidity stress appears in Hong Kong HIBOR FIXING
Overnight Spikes 252 bps

Overnight│4.14286%│+252.595 bps
1-Week│3.24381%│+129.583 bps
1-Month│3.4981%│+50.822 bps
3-Month│3.79405%│+7.548 bps
6-Month│4.10768%│+0.994 bps
12-Month│4.26161%│+0.036 bps

[xero @TradingandMore]

what a destruction of value.

[xero @TradingandMore]

10Y JGBs trading below 25 bps again.

[xero @TradingandMore]

MOVE bond vol index easily taking out the Covid highs.

[xero @TradingandMore]

*US SAYS SVB DEPOSITORS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO ALL MONEY MONDAY

[xero @TradingandMore]

*FED WEIGHS EASING ACCESS TO DISCOUNT WINDOW TO BACKSTOP BANKS

[xero @TradingandMore]

Fed funds future pricing as of Friday's close.
33 bps hike priced for the next meeting, terminal rate at 5.285% and around 50 bps cuts priced in the later part of 2023 early 2024.

[xero @TradingandMore]

@KirkSimon9 Also tending towards 25 bps now, but two big data release still to come before the meeting.

Also, we get the BOJ wildcard today.

[xero @TradingandMore]

It's getting interesting out there. Just when you thought 50 bps is a done deal, US banks are having the biggest sell-off in 2years+.

[xero @TradingandMore]

Ouch, ISM prices paid data is not looking like peak inflation.

[xero @TradingandMore]

After 959 days, finally.

*HONG KONG TO END MANDATORY MASK WEARING ON WEDNESDAY

[xero @TradingandMore]

o/n HIBOR up 184 bps to 3.07% from 1.23%.

[xero @TradingandMore]

After 16 consecutive months of decline, housing prices in China remained stable over the past month.

[xero @TradingandMore]

Fed Funds futures are pricing a peak of 4.90% by June and -1.5 cuts just 6 months later brining policy rate down to 4.2%.

[xero @TradingandMore]

Always good to look back what has been forecasted in terms of Fed hikes by the street last year.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Fed calls this week

• JP Morgan (Fri): 5 hikes this year (Mar, May), 3 next year
• BofA (Fri): 7 this year (every meeting), 4 next year
• Morgan Stanley (Thurs): 4 this year (Mar, Jun)
• Deutsche Bank (Wed): 5 this year (Mar, May, Jun), 3 next year

All hikes are ¼ pt

[CN Wire @Sino_Market]

⚡JUST IN
#China January official #PMI
Manufacturing PMI 50.1 [Est.49.8 Prev.47.0]
Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.4 [Est.52.0 Prev.41.6]
Composite PMI 52.9 [Prev.42.6]
#manufacturing #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
1/ Thread
*Manufacturing PMI highest since Sept.