Bitcoin Succeeded
Bitcoin was the first asset that gave an entire generation a chance to speculate, take risk, and potentially create life changing wealth.
But markets evolve.
Today, AI is creating hundreds of new opportunities. Data centers, chips, software, robotics, infrastructure. Real businesses with real products, real customers, and real cash flows. Some of them will be 10x or 20x investments over the next decade.
Unlike Peter Schiff, who has long dismissed Bitcoin, I think it’s here to stay. But I also don’t fully agree with Michael Saylor’s view that it’s going to the moon or continue producing 30% annualized returns indefinitely.
I don’t think Bitcoin is dead. Far from it.
I think Bitcoin succeeded.
When an asset goes from a speculative bet to something owned by institutions, ETFs, pension funds, corporations, and even governments, the upside naturally compresses. That’s not failure. That’s success.
Can it reach $120,000 at some point? Absolutely. Maybe even $150,000 in a few years.
What I question is whether it can still deliver the kind of returns that made it legendary. From here, I suspect long term returns look more like 10% to 15% annually than 10x gains.
Ten years ago, if you wanted asymmetric upside, Bitcoin was one of the only games in town.
Today, a young investor looking for a 10x has an entire AI ecosystem to choose from: real assets with real growth and, eventually, real cash flow.
Bitcoin changed finance forever. It opened the door.
Now a new generation is walking through different ones.
Why will Bitcoin RALLY - and then CRASH?
Bitcoin is a USD (DXY)-story. When DXY drops - BTC rallies.
And the DXY is a EURUSD-story. This pair defines the direction of DXY (being 57.6% of the DXY-basket).
BTC has rallied into the spikes in the EURUSD since the beginning of BTC.
See - the long-term chart EURUSD is very clear.
One more SPIKE into the Wedge - before strong reversal and Crash in this pair.
Translated into BTC. Strong rally/bounce - before BTC gets absolutely Crushed under the weight of the USD wrecking Ball as the Deflationary Bust develops.
That is the reason for my BTC Outlook.
Bitcoin possess NO FUNDAMENTAL VALE what-so-ever!
Now watch the BTC Rally setting off soon!
In February as this #ETF was breaking out of is sideways consolidation, we have captured one of the higher weights in the basket $CSX. Both breakouts took place around the same level.
Let's see which stocks will be the driver of a possible breakout on $IQQI this time? Working on it.
The power of active management in mining stocks ⛏️
Anyone can chase GDX's +196.98% and digest 38% volatility along the way. Bon appétit.
We'll take +151.22% with a 22% vol and let the Sharpe (1.91) & Sortino (2.61) do the talking.
In mining, surviving the drawdowns is the strategy. 🥇
“SILVER AND GOLD’S NEXT MOVE IS GOING TO FOOL 90% OF INVESTORS”
“THE METALS ARE SETTING UP TO MAKE FALSE NEW LOWS THAT WILL SUCK IN BEARISH PLAYERS.”
“WE MIGHT SEE SOME CAPITULATION OVER THE DAYS AND WEEKS AHEAD THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THAT BIG SUMMER REBOUND.”
Credit to @TheDailyGold who nailed the exact path of the correction these last few months so far.
Bitcoin - I'm sorry to be rude again, but to everyone who has previously confidently stated that the bottom is in and the correction is over...what kind of Mickey Mouse analysis are you using? Did you forget to use log scale and weight of evidence, or do you really just not care?
How many years before the next bull market cycle in Silver? The past two averaged 22 years.
Be bold -- reply with your prediction.
The next bull market is _______X_______ years away?
Yesterday's technology-led selloff did not occur in a vacuum. Several developing narratives are beginning to converge, creating the first meaningful challenge to AI leadership in months.
The selling pressure culminated in a decisive distribution day on the Nasdaq, as the technology-heavy index closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time since reclaiming it on April 8. Volume expanded from the prior session and finished above average, signaling meaningful institutional selling rather than routine profit-taking.
Market leadership narrowed noticeably as capital rotated toward more defensive sectors. Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities attracted relative strength, while Technology stocks bore the brunt of the selling pressure.
Bull markets do not die because of of old age. The chart above shows that the 1998 case (dot plot in the far upper right corner), which has drawn a lot of comparisons to the current bull, lasted the longest and registered the highest return of any bull market since 1928. In total, five prior bull markets lasted longer than the current one and eight posted higher returns.
One similarity to the late 1990s is valuation. By most measures, stocks look overextended. The total stock market capitalization relative to GDI is at a record high, and very close to the reading reached at the 2000 peak.
Until the market shows signs of renewed strength, investors should remain selectively cautious. Protect capital, avoid lagging names, and reduce exposure in positions that violate stop levels or show clear signs of price violations. Extended stocks showing decent profits should be back-stopped to protect gains.
https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn
Best performing classical chart pattern historically: #rectangle
Top 2 YTD: #rectangle
Rectangle also has the highest Type 1 breakouts. Breakout and rally and usually past the price objective.
If you are trying to simplify your chart pattern breakout trading, I don't see a better setup to start from.
I continue to add horizontal setups with several times tested boundaries. Several tests show that the level is recognized by market participants. Breakouts usually result in directional movement which we would like to capture.
From the latest #watchlist#TECHCHARTSMEMBERS
Access >> https://t.co/Joa5VEFsp3
SILVER - In January when it was $90 & about to hit $121, I said 'expect a volatile correction at some point this year'. My target is $400-$500 in the mid 2030's. So far, so good...
The upcoming (strong) BTC rally is going to be socially exhausting.
Get ready for:
Sudden Experts: Dinner party lectures on fiat collapse from people who can’t explain a blockchain.
Cringe Price levels: "Experts" taking victory laps and screaming ".
Laser-Eye Cults: Absolute tribalism where macroeconomic headwinds are just dismissed as FUD.
Protect your sanity!
I spent 3 days building a World Cup trading & research bot for Polymarket.
Right now, it's monitoring the Portugal game in real time.
Literally nobody else has access to this intel.
It's tracking real-time trading/arbitrage opportunities, whale/insider transactions, volume surges, and more.
All sourced from real prediction market data to help me make money.
I'll be using it for every single World Cup game. I'm about to print.
This is what an unfair edge actually looks like.
Honoured to be featured on the cover of FORBES MONEY Slovakia this month, with a 16-page interview inside.
The focus is the one call that matters right now: a recession is coming. It will not be caused by Trump or by war. It will be caused by the cycle itself, and it will be deeper than 2008.
That is not a headline-driven guess. It is a forecast. The difference matters. Macro is about the direction of the business cycle, driven by the momentum of hundreds of millions of consumers, not by discrete events. My Macro Navigation Framework is built to read that direction across three layers: the business cycle as the foundation, global liquidity as the amplifier, and Elliott Wave structure for timing.
The market is still denying the real state of the economy. And the largest financial bubble ever continues to expand. Euphoria is insane! The framework is not denying anything - it is reading the data as it is.
In the article I walk through where we are in the cycle, why the consensus keeps getting it wrong, and what the data is actually saying beneath the surface.
The dogma that crises cannot be predicted is the most expensive idea in investing - and not only for investors, but for central banks, governments and the public. And it is wrong!
They can be predicted. And more importantly, they should be. Knowing where you are in the cycle is everything.
Thank you to Forbes Slovakia for the platform. More on the framework to come.
#forbesslovensko #forbesmoney
Biggest mistake that $HYPE holders / speculators are making right now is that they are being too short term, and there is substantially more upside from here than everyone thinks.
1) Hyperliquid is the future of finance and is still just doing a speck of what real Tradfi volumes could be -- this will ramp dramatically once we get more regulatory clarity around the asset class
2) The real valuation for Hyperliquid is likely closer to its circulating market cap of $30 BN as opposed to $70 BN FDV
3) Hyperliquid is likely 3x to 4x more profitable than platforms like HOOD, IBKR etc.. -- If Hyperliquid did 30% of IBKR volumes it could get to the same valuation of $160 BN (5x from here) assuming the same multiple
4) @chameleon_jeff is not a scammer and actually wants to build a generational product unlike many of the other projects in the industry.
Much HIGHER.
Most traders are focused on the wrong stocks at the wrong time. They discover market leaders after the move has already happened.
The biggest winners in the market often share similar characteristics before they make their biggest moves.
My proprietary Behavioral Analytics were built as an early detection system to identify true market leadership, using insights derived from more than a century of market history and my personal database.
Put the Minervini process on your desktop—and the probabilities in your favor.
Minervini Markets 360
https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn
I still find it interesting that several Gold & Silver mining stocks are very close to their horizontal boundaries preparing for possible breakouts and yet Gold and Silver are flirting with their 200-day averages.
I think I will be interested to take the signals on miners.