Marcus Larsson

#OOTT

[Marcus Larsson @TrendofEarnings]

Still no geopolitical premium priced into the WTI market. My model, which only uses inventory data, estimates fair value around 90$/barrel. #oott

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

Given a history of chronically underestimating demand growth...perhaps not as particularly worrying of a headline as it might suggest...

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

Before we all freak out with oil inventories growing by 15MM week-over-week, imports were up 1MM Bbl/d and exports were down 1.6MM Bbl/d...2.6 x 7 = 18.2MM Bbl swing. Real-time satellite data shows global inventory surplus still falling. Let's see what next week brings...

[Marcus Larsson @TrendofEarnings]

@MagnusMacro If you are using windows, install it via Anaconda. Look into popular libaries like pandas, numpy, matplotlib, sci-kit learn, statsmodels, keras, beatiful soup etc. Kaggle is a fun learning resource.

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

Stop all the discussion on inflationary risks after the NFP report.

We still need a MASSIVE rebound in employment before it even makes sense to discuss upside risks to core inflation.

How to trade inflation -> https://t.co/BX9fgfyh9B

[𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞 @EffMktHype]

The only thing i have to say about this chart is....

[The Long View @HayekAndKeynes]

... and yet Japanese 10y bonds still yield 0%, it's currency has ~doubled vs most EM countries and has no real change vs other DM economies...

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

D E F L A T I O N

Weekly editorial -> https://t.co/hIlP91XYpx

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

Anyone still saying that it will take years for oil demand to (largely) recover simply isn't looking at the data. Time for the perma-bears to throw in the towel...this too is passing

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

🇺🇸 Current oil price points at -40% CapEx. Ouch!

No wonder Trump wants to bailout the sector.

[Marcus Larsson @TrendofEarnings]

@EnergyCredit1 I have a model forecasting the rig count (no lagged dependent variable). My current forecast for 8 weeks out is 384. Statistics aside, I think we are going lower than that.

[Marcus Larsson @TrendofEarnings]

@AndreasSteno I think it is 100% 🤔

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

Apple is now releasing mobility trend data from its Maps app. It tracks the #COVID19 impact on walking, driving and transit activities. Below graph shows Denmark https://t.co/raUP4Qk656

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

Too much money chasing too few assets should lead to a bizarre positive ketchup effect in to 2021... But I think we will head lower before then..

https://t.co/wnEnl8KBAt

[Marcus Larsson @TrendofEarnings]

@Ole_S_Hansen @business That's not how it works. More contago is bearish.

[Marcus Larsson @TrendofEarnings]

@moose287 @NicoLongShort If I remember correctly, floating storage require ~$10 contango spread to be profitable.

[Marcus Larsson @TrendofEarnings]

@AlyYahfoufy @petermckeever @matplotlib Plotly fan checking in

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Energy high-yield credit spreads just reached record levels with WTI prices at 18-year lows.

An incredibly bullish setup.

[Morten Lund @meremortenlund]

🇺🇸 Another good leading indicator falling off a cliff

[Martin Enlund ⚡️🦆🚁 @enlundm]

🇯🇵👺 #USDJPY currently buoyed by quarter-end & fiscal year-end, but watch out below come April! Plunging US real rates likely to start weighing on the pair very soon. $JPY