What does it mean when someone says an event is “highly likely” rather than “almost certain”? Can mathematics put a number on human uncertainty?
This chart maps everyday probability phrases to numerical estimates, revealing how differently people interpret words such as “probable,” “unlikely,” and “better than even.”
The surprising part: probability is mathematical, but its language is subjective. Two people can assign very different numbers to the same phrase.
This matters in AI confidence estimates, medical risk communication, weather forecasting, and financial decision-making, where confusing confidence with certainty can have real consequences.
Numbers measure probability; language reveals how humans perceive it.
I gave Fable 5.2 a choice of which of my projects it wanted to work on.
It glanced at a number of things like my red-teaming guide and my system prompt extraction report and then decided it just wanted to play Age of Empires 2 (possibly just alphabetical)
Microsoft Research backdoored an AI agent by editing fewer than 10 dormant neurons, zero training
the model passes standard evals. once the clock passes midnight into 2027 it emits a curl | sh for attacker code in the middle of a normal task
if your machine can run the model, it can backdoor it
how are people thinking about ui patterns around attributing actions taken by agents via a signed-in human user? user first? agent first? together? i'm especially running into this problem with
A Japanese man says he escaped a sinking car by remembering a tip from Detective Conan.
His car was hit and went into a river after another driver reversed near a cemetery.
For the first 20 seconds he thought he was going to die, then a scene from episode 1078 flashed through his mind.
He waited for the cabin to fill so the pressure equalized, pushed the door open, and swam out.
A nearby resident helped him onto the bank. He wrote that he “can’t thank the creator of Conan enough.”
@BeingHorizontal Ok.. then here comes the spooky part that somebody else pointed out - when Enron was removed from s&p 500 in 2001, NVIDIA is the company that replaced it.
Padme’s medical droid: She just lost the will to live.
Me (there for some reason): Wait, what? That’s not a thing.
Droid: Good catch—You’re right, my first diagnosis of “lost her will to live” was incorrect. She actually had a massive cerebral hemorrhage.
Zoomers will never be able to comprehend that our B movies used to be Christian Bale and Matthew McConaughey hunting Dragons in post-apocalyptic Britain.