Donald Trump said he was considering “winding down” US military efforts against Iran, saying that the US was close to achieving its objectives, per Bloomberg
Buffett: “What do you think the end will be?”
Munger: “Bad.”
In 2005, exactly 20 years ago, Buffett and Munger talked about the consequences of US structural trade deficits.
Warren Buffett predicted:
“Ownership by the rest of the world, of [the US], would be seen as a form of taxation 20 years from now by the people who reside here.” 👀
@KobeissiLetter Banks reassess their base case back to recession from the reassessed base case of no recession from the reassessed base case of recession from the assessed base case of SP6600 Q1 26’
10yr 4.5%
30yr 4.9%
Japan down 5.2%
S&P down 2%
probability of me going to sleep over watching the global financial system collapse in real time 0%
@EpsilonTheory Jerome Powell gets to sleep comfy at night while I crawl into fetal position and watch the 10Y rise to levels that make me consider quitting my job before I get laid off
This is what structural stress looks like. When basis trades unwind this violently, it’s not about macro narratives—it’s about risk limits, margin calls, and liquidity gaps.
These aren’t decisions made by people—they’re made by models under pressure. And they always move faster than the headlines.
@compound248 I have leveraged FinTwit as my main source of market news/insights for awhile now... am dissapointed in myself that I have only now come across your content. Great stuff
"Anecdotally, 20x appears to be a good approximation of leverage typically used in these trades"
Luckily, we live in a world where a 5% loss is inconceivable