Unknown Capital

money tree planter

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

S&P 500 Thoughts ($spy $voo $googl $meta $amzn $nvda $mu)

The market is aggressively capitalizing an accounting illusion where everyone overearns simultaneously: Hyperscalers are spending serious cash on AI CapEx, which doesn’t hit net income for years (costs later, tomorrow). At the same time, suppliers are extracting peak-cycle 75% gross margins (revenue, right now, today).

This loop resolves into 1 of 2 scenarios:

1. CapEx stays elevated and the lagging D&A wave finally catches up to grind down Big Tech's income statement. Possibly, new capacity normalizes supplier margins

2. CapEx pulls back, collapsing supplier revenue and margins. Big Tech cash flow improves, while D&A continued climbing

Buying broad beta here means paying top-of-cycle multiples for a catch-22 that accounting timing mismatch will inevitably correct

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

Alphabet’s capital-light monopoly is becoming a capital-intensive oligopoly… Along the way, this transition transfers substantial value from Alphabet shareholders to chip suppliers, customers, and consumers.

Price drives narrative. Seeing former skeptics credit $GOOGL way too early in this transition

@michaeljburry @realroseceline

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

@BigIdeasCapital @221Brew @B__Digs Good pt on biz services. Would be a great combo either way

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

@BigIdeasCapital @garyHeff @221Brew @B__Digs You think it goes that way? I’d think somewhat more likely Charter eventually takes over Comcast… bigger network ($CHTR + COX) and the better operator

Expect any deal would result in Roberts/ $CMCSA rolling into the new pro forma entity… so gets to similar end point

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

@JoeCandito12 Agree with this point broadly, though should still work well below $300 (~15% pf cash yield). Cox + deleveraging should also help expand market cap eventually, after reducing the worst downside from the leveraged cap stack

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

@SouthernValue95 @StockPrinter Believe we’ve entered steal territory on $CHTR

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

@WaltLightShed Lends some credibility to $CHTR comments on FWA (VZ/TMUS slowing) and gross adds in mobile, no?

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

@WaltLightShed Seems plausible, given increasing 2-product penetration. But agree weak disclosure

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

@KeelResearch It has indeed moved

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

@Stanley_invest @leevalueroach Getting more reasonable on GAAP. If you credit $2 of intangible amort, you’re at like 18x

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

@realroseceline Curious any updated thoughts with a dramatically changed valuation and more AI-specific concerns

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

@WillBiddy_ Yes, it would be 6.5%

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

@JuanRodrig07 Damn, now all that good ads momentum is lost!

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

You’re drilling into his bonus incentive accurately, but you’re overweighting that PSU portion ($0-62.5mm, depending on price)

Separate from PSU, he’s starting with $20mm make-whole day one, $16.5mm additionally for 2026, with another $11mm in 2027

Even if the company sells for $40bn, he keep nearly $50mm

More is better, agree, but his wealth creation is already baked

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

I think there’s been enough time for them to generate some KPIs. Silence is very deafening for a company that otherwise finds many excuses to suggest how great things are trending (e.g. BNPL + Venmo)

Willing for something to materialize, but the probability of something special is shrinking

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

It’s not ridiculous. It counts for 💩 in terms of revenue / earnings

Your 2nd line is correct. If they started selling lemonade, it would be a similar impact to PnL

It’s not like ads is some secret profit center… EPS will decline this year despite lower share count, and whatever “high growth” exists here

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

@JuanRodrig07 @EarningsMatter I found it telling that Jamie Miller’s $3mm “retention” was paid in cash

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

@realroseceline @robleclerc Capital gains? In Snap???

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

@andrewcoye Thanks for sending! Much appreciated, Andrew

[Unknown Capital @Unknown_Capital]

Caution: Cash flow geyser square ahead!

$CHTR