Sean Hogarty

+options/-regret/++joy... Makes Dad jokes

[Palmer Luckey @PalmerLuckey]

One funk to bring them all, and in the disco bind them.

[Sean Hogarty @VacaBoca]

@DiscountChuck Missed seeing you all! Great pic :)

[DJ @congressdj]

If you care about your loved ones, ensure they drive a Tesla.

[X Freeze @XFreeze]

People completely miss the most important thing about Tesla FSD

It’s not just about convenience. It’s not a "cool self-parking trick."

It’s about the fact that car crashes are the #1 killer of healthy people aged 5-29 globally and one company has gathered over 10 billion miles of real-world data to actually solve it

Look at the recent data: Tesla just became the FIRST vehicle to pass NHTSA's new ADAS safety tests. Not the first EV. The first vehicle. Period.

The reality is harsh but simple. Countries that approve FSD get safer roads overnight. Countries that delay will literally watch their citizens die in preventable crashes while bureaucrats sit in meeting rooms debating "safety."

The "safety" argument against FSD is officially dead

[Sean Hogarty @VacaBoca]

@DiscountChuck Loved hearing it about it, Chuck

[Sean Hogarty @VacaBoca]

@congressdj Definitely... Not a Performance, but the Juniper LR w/acceleration boost makes overtakes and windy roads pretty nice :)

[Whole Mars Catalog @wholemars]

One thing you have to know following Tesla is that there is a massive amount of anti-Tesla propaganda and FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) pushed by powerful and well connected people. This isn't true of most companies, so it can catch people off guard if they're not aware of it.

There are a lot of people who desperately want Tesla to fail. Short sellers, the oil industry, the car dealership lobby, the unions, people on the left, people on the right, people who hate Elon... you name it.

That's why I started covering the company seven years ago. I just saw so much information pushed by TSLAQ (the Tesla short sellers) that was either completely false or twisted the facts in an egregious way. Tesla's valuation was $30 billion back then, and TSLAQ claimed it was going to go bankrupt. I thought they had a bright future. But neither the bulls nor the bears could have predicted it turning into the trillion dollar AI giant it is today.

When I started calling out the Tesla short sellers for their smear campaign against Tesla, they turned the smear campaign on me. They falsely claimed that I was a pedophile, that I had child pornography, filed false police reports against me, doxxed me, and they've been suing me and Elon for the last 6+ years. You have no idea what these people are capable of and how much they work together to manipulate public perception.

Think about it. Why is there so much effort put into making you hate Tesla, a company that makes electric cars that keep the air in your community clean? Utility scale batteries that help bring our grid to the 21st century? Why do we need to hate safe, fun, and fast cars with cutting edge AI built in? Why is so much effort put into fighting Tesla and not the oil companies, the legacy automakers, the healthcare companies, or so many other industries that rip people off?

Question what you hear, dig a little deeper, and do your own research. Just take a test drive and experience the products for yourself and the propaganda starts to fall apart pretty quickly.

[Neil Owen @CyberNeil]

After 6,000+ miles, FSD has officially warped my brain. I now inherently trust FSD more than my own perception.

Today, when my @cybertruck made a couple unexpected moves during a 350-mile trip, I asked myself “What does FSD see that I’m missing?” instead of questioning “Why did it do that?” Both times it was reacting to things before I was aware of them.

Thanks, @Tesla_AI — Awesome work!

[Chuck Staton @DiscountChuck]

🎥💪🌈

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

This 2003 lecture from Elon Musk at Stanford University is an absolute gem

The vision he had for what the internet and SpaceX would become all eventually came true

Just goes to show how far ahead of his time he really was

[Sean Hogarty @VacaBoca]

Right?

[Stephen Gris @StephenGris]

Watching “Fletch” for the first time - how did this theme not get as big as Axel F?

https://t.co/bRJOD1w2WI

[X Freeze @XFreeze]

The greatest miscalculation the legacy auto industry ever made was doubting Elon's approach to Full Self-Driving

For years, Wall Street aggressively shorted Tesla, and the legacy auto industry laughed. They confidently declared that Elon Musk’s approach to autonomy would fail

Today, they are realizing they are completely stuck

Here is how Elon solved the toughest problem in tech:

The First Principles Approach:

Elon admitted that FSD turned out to be exponentially harder than anyone expected. Because to solve self-driving, you aren't just writing code.....you basically have to recreate human biology in digital form

Think about it: The entire global road system is designed to work for humans. We drive using optical sensors (our eyes) and a biological neural net (our brain)

The Vision-Only Breakthrough:

While legacy auto relied on expensive crutches like LiDAR, pre-mapped routes, and hard-coded rules, Elon looked at the real world. He knew that if an AI couldn't make decisions entirely on its own, it would eventually encounter edge cases and freeze

Tesla took a path everyone deemed impossible: Vision-only, end-to-end neural networks

The result was insane

The industry that said "it will never work" is now scrambling. They completely misunderstood the problem, and now they are stuck a decade behind. Tesla has achieved what the rest of the automotive world couldn't even comprehend

Today, most people using Tesla FSD are blown away by the way it makes a decision just like a human would

All achieved with pure vision

[Devin Olsen @DevinOlsenn]

I do not drive anymore.
Tesla Self-Driving does over 99% of my driving, and the only disengaging I do is for small nav issues and parking preferences (which I assume will get resolved in 14.3).
How is the world not freaking out about FSD? I cannot believe how good it has gotten, yet I still don’t hear anyone outside of “our bubble” talking about it.

[Sean Hogarty @VacaBoca]

@The_SecretStash

[Stats @redsoxstats]

This shot from NFL Films is unbelievable

[phil beisel @pbeisel]

FSD and the Misunderstanding of “Reasoning”

There has been a stadium-sized misunderstanding around “reasoning” as the solution to the long tail of autonomous driving scenarios.

This misunderstanding was pushed front and center by Jensen Huang’s recent CES comments about Alpamayo. I don’t think Jensen meant “reasoning” as a literal bolt-on module, but the way it was presented strongly suggests that adding reasoning, however implemented, solves the hardest remaining autonomy problems.

“Alpamayo brings reasoning to autonomous vehicles, allowing them to think through rare scenarios, drive safely in complex environments, and explain their driving decisions—it’s the foundation for safe, scalable autonomy.” — Jensen Huang, CES 2026

The implication is that the long tail is primarily a reasoning deficit: that current systems lack the ability to “think through” rare or complex situations, and that introducing reasoning closes that gap.

That framing is still misleading.

There is a common notion that Tesla’s FSD advantage is mainly fleet data collection— that FSD improves by seeing more scenarios, while competitors can approach parity by incorporating stronger reasoning models. In this view, Tesla has data, others have reasoning, and the two converge.

But FSD v14 is a reasoning engine.

Reasoning in autonomous driving is not merely symbolic logic, chain-of-thought, or abstract problem solving layered on top of perception. It is the learned ability to select safe, legal, and socially correct trajectories in a constrained, adversarial, and deeply human environment.

That reasoning is not programmed. It is learned, through imitation and reinforcement.

It emerges from encoding billions of real driving scenarios into a neural system that internalizes how actions lead to outcomes. Given live sensory input, the system reasons by projecting futures based on an enormous learned prior of real-world driving behavior. The “thinking” is embedded in the weights of the model, not expressed as explicit steps.

This is why data is not merely additive—it is foundational. Driving is not governed by clean physical laws alone; it is governed by conventions, edge cases, and unwritten social rules. You cannot reason about that domain without first learning it at scale.

Tesla’s FSD is already a general-purpose driving intelligence. It does not need a new reasoning layer to handle rare scenarios, it generalizes across them because the reasoning emerges from the data itself.

Reasoning does not replace the long tail.
The long tail creates the reasoning.

[David Moss @DavidMoss]

I am proud to announce that I have successfully completed the world’s first USA coast to coast fully autonomous drive!

I left the Tesla Diner in Los Angeles 2 days & 20 hours ago, and now have ended in Myrtle Beach, SC (2,732.4 miles)

This was accomplished with Tesla FSD V14.2 with absolutely 0 disengagements of any kind even for all parking including at Tesla Superchargers.

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

NEWS: @DavidMoss has just set a new record by officially surpassing 10,000 consecutive miles on Tesla FSD (Supervised) V14 with no interventions. True 100% FSD usage.

He’s currently on track today to be the first person to complete a coast-to-coast drive (LA → FL) entirely on FSD, without a single intervention🔥

[Robert Scoble @Scobleizer]

Finally the press is getting what I've been saying here for years.

The @waymo customers tell me the future. They tell me over and over again:

1. I'm never buying another car.
2. I'm never driving again.
3. I'm never taking an Uber again.

Next year this all will be obvious to everyone.

I, and others, took so much shit for trying to warn people about Tesla's lead for years. I had one post about how Tesla was leading and how our driving technology was changing years ago get tens of thousands of haters here on X.

They said things like "I love to drive." Or "you need LiDARs." Or "Elon is evil." My own brother still believes these three things, despite me giving him a ride in my robot for hours.

Next year everyone will change, I'm seeing signs of it everywhere since I talk with the Tesla community so often.

But in three years what we believe about transportation will be dramatically different than it is today.

By the way, the haters just disappear. They very rarely apologize for being wrong.

It's something I've noticed hundreds of times in my career. Remember a million people protested the news feed when Zuckerberg first turned that on.

All the traditional automakers killed their projects. VW even has its name on the building where @waymo started at Stanford University and then refused to put AI computers and cameras in all of its cars, saying its customers didn't want them. Same at Mercedes, Ford, and others.

GM bought Cruise, but refused to switch to a camera-only vehicle and then gave up after it had an ethical lapse and didn't report an accident properly. But I told everyone here they were headed in the wrong direction years before they gave up. And so many gave me shit for that.

Well, next year the world will change and all the Tesla haters can just go pound sand.

It, alone, is the only one bringing life-saving technology to everyone. I have two in my garage already. Waymo still isn't on my street and when it does come (any day now, they already announced it) it'll have a product that doesn't have as good an experience as Tesla has in its Robotaxi.

"But there are still drivers in Tesla," the haters now are saying.

But by the end of next year (I predict by April) that no longer will be true.

And then we will be in a new world.

Even the press is starting to wake up to that now.