Borderless Value

mostly global micro / small caps. experienced trader & PM, running my own capital. Valuations based on DCF and monte carlo, not hopes and dreams. Not advice!

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

@Tangible_Bruce Any names you want to share? Looking to do some valuations on Japanese names.

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

Full write up with every assumption and all sources we used:

https://t.co/40kLcJGQ9e

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

Three straight years of falling revenue and a SEK 34 million loss in 2025. Underneath that:
• zero debt,
• SEK 16.1 million of net cash, and
• a recurring revenue base that has started to turn up.

New valuation opinion: NEPA on Nasdaq First North Stockholm $NEPA, $NEPA.SS, the marketing analytics firm behind the brand tracking of some very large consumer names.

What you get at the current share price of SEK 20.10:
• Market value about SEK 158 million
• Enterprise value about SEK 142 million, roughly 0.64 times 2025 sales of SEK 222.6 million
• A gross margin near 75% on a majority subscription revenue base
• Annual recurring revenue bottomed at SEK 121 million in mid 2025, back to SEK 136 million

But the return to profit is cost driven, headcount is down about a quarter and reported revenue is still falling. The bull case needs the revenue turn to show up in the reported numbers. The next read is the Q2 report expected on 14 August.

Our seeded Monte Carlo simulation centres fair value at SEK 21.70 per share, about 8% above the current share price, with 72% of runs above it.

Modestly undervalued, not a bargain, yes we publish those verdicts too, not everything is cheap!

Full analysis with every assumptions and sources in the reply below.

I hold no position in Nepa. Not investment advice, just a valuation opinion. Do your own research.

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

Full write up and the our model as an excel workbook, for free on substack https://t.co/Dr8qyLNPuo

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

A reminder on the cheapest profitable contractor we have covered. Build King https://t.co/FQQoVcCHk9 builds Hong Kong's roads, housing and hospitals, earns money every year and holds about HK$2.07 a share of net cash against a HK$1.38 share price. The cash in its own bank account is worth about 50% more than the entire company, so the construction business, with a fully booked two year order book of HK$30.8 billion, is priced below zero.

It is cheap for reasons worth naming. Margins are thin, cyclical and still sliding, the 2025 profit growth was a cleanup of prior year charges and parent company Wai Kee controls about 58% of the shares. We price all three, normalise the earnings down and haircut the cash for the working capital a contractor genuinely needs. Fair value still comes out near HK$3.40, about 146% above the current share price.

While you wait, the company pays a dividend near 12% including this year's special, about 8% on the ordinary payments alone. A controlled contractor that actually pays out is a different proposition from one that hoards.

I hold a position. Not advice.

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

Growth was never the doubt with $NIO though, but profit is right? It is getting there, but still not fully.

Sales volume is up big every Q and the stock is red because every quarter still ends in a GAAP loss, so the market refuses to pay for growth it is still funding I think.

On a very positive note: the day a GAAP profit prints and holds, the re-rating can be fast, because the volume base will already be built.

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

Agreed, the math is absurd: at 0.4x EBITDA the market is calling the cash dead.

The main problem is that cash like this only moves when the controller (GungHo) decides or when they put in a lowball offer for the stock.. I do not think that anyone is questioning if cash is there though.

I do believe that the record date of 30th of June will be followed up by an actual dividend... first time they are doing this. But in good South Korean governance fashion they seem to execute the dividend in the worst way possible; without any communication to shareholders.

It still amazes me how this company seems to do everything right internally but with a total lack of respect to shareholders (minority shareholders at least).

So let's wait and see on that dividend $GRVY

as always; not advice!

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

Full write up, readable for free on substack: https://t.co/CsorskHdhJ

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

Far East Consortium $35.HK is a Hong Kong property, hotels and gaming conglomerate that trades at about a fifth of its book value. Its hotels and car parks earn money, but a HK$20 billion debt load and a HK$835 million interest bill sink the group to a loss, on top of that it pays no dividend.

A shite company then? Our fair value is HK$2.46 against a HK$0.69 share price. A deep discount and a risky one.

As always, not advice. DYODD!

Link to substack post in the first reply.

Since quite a lot of you are clicking the links, please consider subscribing, liking or reposting if you like the article. Would be very much appreciated!

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

$SOHU article is freely readable on our substack, link:

https://t.co/KSlUxnxTKV

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

A reminder on one of the cheapest balance sheets we have written about so far.

https://t.co/73eN9oIhhM $SOHU holds about US$1.2 billion of cash and investments, roughly US$44.76 an ADS, with zero debt, against a share price around US$13. So the market pays under 30 cents for every dollar of cash and it values the profitable games business, Changyou, at less than nothing (okay there are some other issues).

The catch is governance, not so much the location of the cash. A founder has controlled Sohu for 25 years and has never paid a dividend. Much of the cash is held offshore, the proceeds of the 2021 Sogou sale to Tencent, so it is accessible. It just never comes back to investors, al least not through dividends.

The one thing that does return cash is a buyback, which has retired about a quarter of the shares since 2023. That is the whole thesis: if it keeps going the discount will probably close, if it stops the cash stays whereever the founder wants it. We credit only 40% of the net cash for that governance risk and leave Changyou's ongoing profit as upside we do not even model.

Even then we reach a fair value near US$19 an ADS, well above the current share price.

Full write up is in the link below. and remember;

Not advice, ever! DYODD

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

@atelicinvest hahaha, made me spill my coffee 🤣

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

@HappyInvestor7 @ClarkSquareCap @Reignots Korean governance at its finest…!

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

@Reignots @ClarkSquareCap Is the signal function not just as important as the actual size of the div pay-out? It is a clear signal to the bear case level (at which the stock currently trades imo).

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

You can find the article on substack:
https://t.co/gozv1bzqsn

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

Build King $240.HK, a profitable Hong Kong contractor, trades at HK$1.40 while holding about HK$2.07 a share of net cash, more than its entire market value.

The construction business, with a fully booked two year order book, is priced below zero. On top of that, the company pays a dividend near 12%.

Our fair value is about HK$3.40.

Not advice, DYODD!

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

@atelicinvest Could not have said it better.

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

Ha, you basically wrote the bull case I was too polite to fully commit to. 😄

You are right that owner earnings is the truer lens, not the adjusted EBITDA the company likes to wave around, and on that measure $MYPS is a thin margin laggard next to Huuuge and DoubleDown today.

But those two did not reach 30 plus percent margins by magic, they cut hard and stopped feeding the machine. MYPS has the exact same lever left untouched: a 27% headcount cut already underway and a stack of capitalised game development they could throttle tomorrow. Pull it, and your 4x owner earnings and 0.25x sales math gets you to a dollar plus without breaking a sweat, with full margin convergence taking it past 1.5.

I parked the number at 0.98 mostly because I would not underwrite management actually pulling it off and well, you said it best: this is a crew that chases whatever is hot. Let’s see where it goes from here.

And indeed the reverse split takes the delisting worry off the table.

Great to read your thorough reply and exactly the kind of feedback that makes writing these worth doing and why you have to love fintwit ehh fin-x😉

Thanks again man!

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

@89Olle thanks for sharing🙏

[Borderless Value @ValueBorderless]

PlayStudios ($MYPS): even after a 26% jump, still about 50% upside to our fair value.

A debt free mobile games maker trading near the cash in its own bank account. The founder has reinstated a US$40 million buyback, about half the market value, and the direct to consumer channel, which skips the app store cut, grew about 150% last quarter.

Our fair value, after correction, is about US$0.98. A bargain, though not a safe one.

Credit to @eenfag52809 for pushing us on the direct to consumer shift we had ignored a bit (too much).

Link is in the first reply

Not advice, DYODD.