Colin King

All value. No advice | Stock Newsletter | all write-ups | HoldCo

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

Occasionally I’ll find companies that don’t add back practical items like intangible amortization

And in super rare cases you find companies pegging to straight GAAP results

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

Only 25% of S&P 500 companies "add-back" stock based comp to non-GAAP earnings?

This feels way too low...

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

@MySubClub3 So true!

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

Only 25% of S&P 500 companies "add-back" stock based comp to non-GAAP earnings?

This feels way too low...

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

@KairosPraxis I’m reading it as 75% include it in non GAAP earnings which is surprising

Not every company is trying to “play games” with EPS ya know

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

@JohnHuber72 Holding my breath til $TFSL 2nd step conversion…

Maybe @gatorcapital can convince them

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

@kingdomcapadv More hurdles to own it pre-spin honestly (taxable, huge cap return, etc.)

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

RE: $CPB

When/how do earnings stabilize?

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

@calvinfroedge Earnings trends are ugly... when/how does this stabilize?

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

May articles on VDL:

1) Case study on stub share investments
2) Top 4 event-driven ideas I’m buying ($)
3) Zoetis $ZTS — beaten down
4) Enviri $NVRI — stub/spin ($)
5) Magnum $MICC — spin

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

@calvinfroedge Earnings trends are ugly... when/how does this stabilize?

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

@Noalgos I believe so… super early and super light volume, need to give this some time to play out

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

New Enviri (NVRI) when-issued trading at ~$15.50 = ~$5.20 per pre-spin share (1:3 ratio)

Depending on your net debt measure, that’s 5.3-5.8x EV/EBITDA

I believe EBITDA will grow 10-20% annually from 2026-2028

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

$NVRI

$15/sh distribution and a few days of when-issued trading for NewEnviri

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

A case study from a stub investment in symmetry medical back in 2014…

Every single one of these stub situations is worth a look when they come around.

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

Case study queued up for tomorrow…

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

Case study queued up for tomorrow…

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

@when_to_fold_em Cuz it’d be a 50-60% IRR asset with cash flows I could use for other stuff

Seems worth the brain damage to figure it out!

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

Have an inbound acquisition I’m looking at… trying to gauge AI risk

Very niche market research, contracted revenue, most work regulatory driven

Survey, data analysis, report/presentation are key aspects of the work product

Is this toast?

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

@snapcallcapital Probably doubly so if customers are government / municipal groups?

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

@ClarkSquareCap Combo of public + proprietary data are inputs

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

@DOMOCAPITAL My gut says no but I’m a dinosaur

Seeking feedback from the hive mind here!

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

@tx2424 One segment is fairly stable earnings

Second segment is losing money which should start improving in 2027-2028 (for many reasons)

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

@rtclark 100%

I’m using a “normalized” net debt figure which is prob overly conservative

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

$NVRI now $19.50 ($6.50 on pre-spin share count)

My maths:

1) 88m pre-spin share count / 29m post-spin (1:3 ratio)

2) Net debt range $280m (2x EBITDA) to $365m (assumes gross debt = net debt)

3) 2026 EBITDA guide = $140m / 6-6.5x

4) 2028 EBITDA est. (mine) = $190m / 4.5-5x

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

New Enviri (NVRI) when-issued trading at ~$15.50 = ~$5.20 per pre-spin share (1:3 ratio)

Depending on your net debt measure, that’s 5.3-5.8x EV/EBITDA

I believe EBITDA will grow 10-20% annually from 2026-2028

[Colin King @valuedontlie]

Just wrote up 4 of these ($NVRI was one of them)

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

My goal in any given year is to find ~10 high-conviction catalyst situations (I say situations and not trades because the same idea can be expressed 15 different ways) where the risk/reward is asymmetric, downside is capped, and the hit rate (catalyst unfolds as initially underwritten) is materially above a coin flip…