Father, husband, son, lawyer, investor, student. "It is not necessary to make them see the light. It is only necessary to make them feel the heat". -R. Reagan.
@BlacklionCTA Similar anecdotal evidence in Chicago. Restaurant for Christmas Eve - last year packed, had to wait 30min past reservation - this year every single timeslot still available. OTOH, UPS and Amazon keep delaying my deliveries, ostensibly because they’re so busy 🤷♂️
@SahilBloom@CiovaccoCapital Apologies for what may be a stupid question, but is the ��expectation” line correct? It seems to show taking more action results in zero additional clarity. Maybe it should be vertical - e.g. the expectation is that you will somehow gain clarity with zero additional action?
@NickWoolos Does “work” include non-monetary-paying activities like child care, elder care, laundry, cooking, cleaning, etc? Because if it does NOT, then I suspect there are several million stay-at-home spouses who’d like a word with you.
@TXMCtrades@profplum99 The mix is meaningfully underweight duration because it is a "market cap weighted" mix. Mike explained this starting around the 1:10 (hour ten) mark when he was on Excess Returns back in July.
@bespokeinvest@profplum99 this thread is screaming for your "whatever could it be?" reply.
On a serious note: Does this suggest that an inelasticity arbitrage play (e.g. long big / short small) might be better constructed as an INTRA-INDEX arbitrage as opposed to, say, long MAG7 / short IWM?
@blondesnmoney Been there. Done that. Have the scars. Best advice for times like these: consider them confirmation of your unique ability to pick 20-baggers early.
@mark_ungewitter It seems from the chart you posted like at least the INITIAL non-confirming setups resolve DOWNWARDS (which results in other setups, the latter ones of which resolve upwards). Any thoughts on using setups that do NOT confirm (or at least the initial ones) as a warning sign?
@Globalflows I love being in PR. Amazing coffee (try 787 Coffee if there’s one near where you’re staying) and one of the few places in the US where you’re one hour AHEAD of the markets.
@dampedspring I’ve read* that the vomiting is strictly mental - it is your brain, not your stomach/intestines, making you vomit. Which technically* means you can will yourself not to. It’s all in your head.
Hmm that seems to make your analogy even more apt.
(*not an MD, not medical advice)
@Barchart The downtrend LINE was broken. The DOWNTREND itself has not because the current closing high is still below the immediately preceding closing high ($265) - lower highs mean the downtrend remains in place. Yes, I know: semantics.
@TimmerFidelity Should the X-axis just be "months" since whatever starting point was used for each data set? (because none of the lines appear to end at what is labeled "Jul-24"). Also TSLA would've been a valuable addition IMHO. Thank you for your beautiful and thought-provoking charts!
@jasongoepfert Are there no incidents prior to 1995 or was the look back period set to 30 years? If the former, then that’s really noteworthy. If the latter, then it should be noted that the selected period is predominated by two of the greatest secular bull markets of all time.