Portfolio Manager at SilverCape • Speculation is my ikigai • USIC '24 & '25 (+522%).
No posts should be misconstrued as financial advice. My only account.📈
7 years in and I can safely say I've done something right to have @RichardMoglen and the @TraderLion team kindly grace me with an interview! 😆
It's a long one but hopefully my review of 2025 can bring you back to pivotal moments that made it such a special year! 📈
https://t.co/voizbLtKf7
For the first time in 5 months, I think I can say I've had the most fun trading in a while.
Spending the downtime creating all these new trading tools with AI to improve my workflow efficiency, having the LLMs aid my research, and then putting it all into practice is extremely gratifying.
Am hoping the better days are ahead re: this market now!
You think you're a trader? The market will show you who you really are.
Every mistake you make is impossible to hide, it's right there in your P&L.
Own every loss. Dissect it. Turn every painful trade into a lesson that makes you stronger.
Losing is just tuition in the school of success.
The only way to truly fail is to quit before you learn what you came for.
Everyone is going to talk about the “no deal” between the United States and Iran.
Let me be blunt.
The news does not matter. It’s the reaction to the news that does.
Know your setups. Know your entry tactics. Position size properly and use progressive exposure.
K.I.S.S.
This time last year I was noting that a bottom is imminent (on record in writing)
While not the same setup now bc no flash bear w/capitulation, I wrote on Saturday (link below) that all the signs of a durable low are likely present.
Now tomorrow we likely get a multi index FTD -> if you were underinvested on this day in 2025, you missed nothing. Even if 2026 isn’t the same setup, this should kick off a new trending environment.
https://t.co/bouvOH3VNF
"The most important aspect of trading is behavior modification, without doubt, is the key to trading success -- not only in how we think but also how we act in certain situations.
We must adapt to changing situations over which we have no control."
Apr 7 Daily Review: Strong Price Action and Positive After-Hours News
The market gapped down on geopolitical uncertainty but displayed notable resilience, closing near session highs. Despite the initial weakness, the tape made it impossible to maintain a bearish bias as $PL reclaimed its R2G level from a -6% deficit. After-hours news provided a further catalyst, pushing the /NQ to break above its primary downtrend line.
In the crypto space, both $BTC and $ETH continue to construct higher lows, a constructive setup that historically precedes equity market bottoms. Conversely, /CL dropped over 10%, forming a potential double-top structure that warrants caution.
"The worse a situation becomes, the less it takes to turn it around, and the bigger the upside." - George Soros
it is less than 24 hours to an immediate headline risk; hard to price, harder to trade. but a negative fundamental outcome is a great test of whether the market can sustain the strength from the past 4 sessions, and has already bottomed from March 30th low.
"Why should I have the touch in Hong Kong, Calcutta, Saigon and Stockholm, and lose it when I was within half a mile of Wall Street? What was the difference? There was no easy solution to the problem and for a long time I was baffled. Then one day, as I sat in the Plaza Hotel afraid to make a telephone call, I suddenly realized something. When I was abroad, I visited no board rooms, talked to no one, received no telephone calls, watched no ticker. The solution was whispering to me but at first I could not credit it. It was so surprising, so simple and yet so extraordinary that I could hardly believe it. It was: My ears were my enemy. It dawned on me like a revelation that when I was traveling abroad I had been able to assess the market, or rather the few stocks in which I was interested, calmly, neutrally, without interruption or rumor, completely without emotion and ego. I had operated simply on the basis of my daily telegram, which gave me my perspective. It showed me the way my stocks were behaving. There were no other influences, because I did not see or hear anything else. In New York it was nothing like that. There were interruptions, rumors, panics, contradictory information, all floating into my ear. As a result of this my emotions became involved with the stocks — and the cold, clinical approach had gone." - Nicholas Darvas, How I Made $2 Million In The Stock Market
The difference between 2022 and Now.
I have done some homework too and studied the "Big Movers" of 2021, especially those "Liquid Leaders" whose annual highs occurred in the second half of the year. I found that they often peaked earlier than the indices and headed south all the way; when the indices rebounded, their rallies were very weak.
Now, things are very different. Looking at the "Big Movers" of 2025 and comparing stocks that also reached their annual highs in the second half of the year, you can see that the Memory, Optics, and Space groups are holding up very well. The index has only rebounded for two or three days, yet LITE and CIEN have already hit all-time highs, Memory is near all-time highs, and the gains in Space are also very strong.
Fun community on here that shouldn't be discounted.
Wanted to play around with a Perplexity Computer dashboard despite being tech illiterate, the homie @ConnorJBates_ motivated me and then these groups from @Clement_Ang17 were quite helfpul too.
This layout took literally 10 minutes with 4-5 prompts, very helpful.
https://t.co/Rd2K1zJCfx