Waterboy Walton

Fundamental investing. Biotech.

[Bimal Desai @bimald]

The amount of useless jargon they use is mind-boggling. The wet-lab is a bunch of xyz robots operating on plates running viability screens. They are going to *solve* molecular discovery with AI instructing these robots and technicians. E.g. In the clip, AI instructs a tech to “pipette 100 uL into wells…” 🙄

You can find a thousand molecules to kill any pest - the hard part is finding one that is not toxic to animals and humans.

But I have to tip my hat that they snagged investors with this pitch. Blame the game, not the playah, I guess. #Theranosvibes

[Adam May @A_May_MD]

“The IL4/13 antibody will hit its primary endpoint in atopic dermatitis.”

[Waterboy Walton @WaterboyWalton]

I think I mostly agree, but I think one other thing we learned from the Syfovre/Izervay launches is that patient/caretaker motivation can be a problem if there isn't a discernible benefit at the individual patient level. I'm sure hitting on BCVA would help in that regard, but it's not going to be like wet AMD where patients can often tell relatively quickly whether the drug is benefitting them.

[Waterboy Walton @WaterboyWalton]

@odysseusito @ColeMacro @PunterJeff I think Matt understands this. But I don't think Jeff does. He's actually retarded, but his confidence fools people.

[Waterboy Walton @WaterboyWalton]

@ryQuant Preach.

[Waterboy Walton @WaterboyWalton]

@Pledditor Scamming and rent seeking all the way down. That's all these companies are.

[Claire, aka Midwestern Hedgie 🏳️‍⚧️ 🇱🇧 @MidwestHedgie]

this is AI. in reality, we made a fuckton of money being short this dude's stock while being long Bitcoin. it was an incredible easy arb trade, fueled by retail investors, who fell for Saylor's schtick.

[Michael Guimarin @Guimarin]

I have grown up in SV my entire life. I know many of the guys who built the computer revolution going back to the 1960s. For decades. Countless old guy back in the day stories I have sat and listened.

I say this with zero reservation, Chamath and his contemporaries consumed the culture of Silicon Valley to get rich.

Did they “pass it on”? Mentor? Build stuff for fun? Contribute to the community? No, nothing.

They did nothing but take. They are takers. And therefore are losers.

Chamath is a loser. And if you met him, you’d know that he knows it too.

[Waterboy Walton @WaterboyWalton]

This whole framing and the word "winning" is so odd to me. Are you trying to make money or are you participating in some moral crusade? I imagine a lot of $BTC and treasury company investors will say both, but the latter is going to cloud your judgment if you care about the former.

[Ravid Shwartz Ziv @ziv_ravid]

How Anthropic's new results post would read without the PR:

Claude orchestrated open-source protein design models, PXDesign, RFdiffusion, Genie, BoltzGen, from a 30k-token expert prompt and 12,500 H100-hours of compute, and designed binders against 14 of 15 targets. Hit rates of 22–35% against a 10–15% baseline, where some of those tools already report similar numbers on their own.

The orchestration is genuinely impressive. But the open-source models did most of the lifting, and they came from the Baker lab, Columbia, MIT, ByteDance Seed, and most of them were already wet-lab validated before Claude touched them.

Which also sets the ceiling. All these generators share a single PDB-shaped training distribution, so calling four of them doesn't diversify away the blind spot, since they fail together. The targets that worked are the well-studied ones.

So the valid claim is that an agent can now drive this stack competently in the regime where the stack already works.

Instead, we got this announcement:

[Melinda B. Chu @MelindaBChu1]

This is a grad student or Post-doc project. I put it at first-year grad student or college student project.

I thought they were new targets. These are primarily known targets AND Adaptyv Bio already knew how to synthesize them b/c they were known targets.

Why are we acting like this is a big accomplishment and actually curing diseases?

[Alex Kesin @alexkesin]

>be me, early 2000s
>grinding away at Genzyme's Cambridge site
>2011 rolls around
>Sanofi acquires us
>stonks.jpg
>get CVRs instead of a bonus
>milestones tied to Lemtrada sales, very achievable
>they are not achievable
>GCVRZ expires worthless, find out via email
>get laid off due to "restructuring"
>whatever.png
>join a cool new biotech startup two T stops away
>spend my days drugging kinases
>absolutely speedrun two drug approvals straight from Phase 1
>company is booming
>big pharma starts sniffing around like sharks
>massive buyout announced
>mfw it's Sanofi
>mfw I get laid off due to restructuring again

[Waterboy Walton @WaterboyWalton]

@ZynxBTC It's perfectly reasonable for $MSTR and other treasury companies to be excluded. These companies aren't performing any function that investors couldn't already perform themselves. They just introduce unnecessary overhead and rent-seeking into an index.

[Waterboy Walton @WaterboyWalton]

@_Adrian @Strategy De-leveraging decreases the risk associated with $STRC, right? So shouldn't buybacks lead to a higher price, all else equal?

[Waterboy Walton @WaterboyWalton]

Saying the quiet part out loud. @PunterJeff and the other scumbags at @Strive don't care if the common stock doesn't perform.

All that matters is...the size of their balance sheet? But what good is that if you're getting diluted to oblivion?

$ASST $STRC

[Martin Shkreli @MartinShkreli]

the $CAPR is a complete fraud

[STL Biotech @STL_Biotech]

This dude faked his entire CV, got two biopharma exec jobs from his sailboat as an international fugitive and im just working my day job like an idiot

[. @tosinmm_]

USMNT fans seeing that Folarin Balogun can play against Belgium

[Derrico Henrio @derrico_henrio]

Europoors seeing that we’ve started to care enough about soccer to start bribing FIFA