Weather Updates

Amateur forecaster | providing updates on UK severe weather, Flooding and Atlantic tropical activity | Feel free to message me any questions!☀️🌦️⛈️

[Weather Updates @Weather_Nathan]

My January Stats📈

Temp🌡️
~Max: 11.2°c
~Min: -5.9°c

Rainfall🌧️
~Total: 79.6mm
~Average: 42.3mm
~Overall: 188% of average

2026 Brief Summary

Temp🌡️
~Max: 11.2°c (12th Jan)
~Min: -5.9°c (6th Jan)

Rainfall🌧️
~Total: 79.6mm
~Average (Jan - Jan):42.3mm
~Overall 188% of average

[Met Office @metoffice]

A spell of warmer and more settled weather is expected to develop across the UK later this week, with temperatures likely to reach the high 20s Celsius in some areas.

Read all the detail: https://t.co/OEiwf3MgeX

[Marco Petagna @Petagna]

More hot and settled weather in coming...

https://t.co/qpkEDPJQoa

[Met4Cast - UK Weather @Met4CastUK]

SECOND HALF OF JUNE

A planetary wave 5 pattern is beginning to emerge on the ECMWF monthly models. This is characterised by a very slow-moving, nearly static wave configuration across the Northern Hemisphere. Because these patterns tend to be highly persistent and prone to repeating, there is a heightened potential for extreme heatwaves developing beneath strong heat domes.

The expectation of a cooler, more unsettled first half of June has largely come to fruition although the anticipated mid-Atlantic ridge has failed to materialise. This appears to be largely due to a stronger influence from the MJO in Phase 8 than was originally expected. Earlier forecasts suggested a quicker decay into a weak or incoherent signal, but the persistence of Phase 8 forcing has prevented high pressure from retrogressing into the mid-Atlantic.

Instead, high pressure is now more likely to build across the UK or into western and central Europe, rather than to the west.

Essentially the broader pattern expected for June has shifted eastwards by a few thousand miles.

So, what does this mean going forward?

The second half of June is now favoured to become more settled, with the potential for some notably warm or hot spells. The GWO is expected to move back towards Niño attractor phases which indicates a rise in AAM after a (small) drop off in tendency, this rising again from a higher base state than the previous rise.

Rising AAM = greater likelihood of settled or hot weather, factor in the likely wave 5 hemispherical pattern and the potential for extreme heatwaves across Europe & perhaps the UK is heightened vs normal. This will also further anchor the development of a very strong El Nino.

SUMMARY:

There is a growing likelihood of high pressure building over or to the east of the UK with low pressure out in the Atlantic, this brings the potential for settled or hot weather, particularly across parts of Europe but perhaps the UK too, i.e the potential for hot weather during the second half of June is growing.

[Weather Updates @Weather_Nathan]

@wxcharts @wxcharts Not sure if it’s just me but having issues with your website. Nothing loading

[Met Office @metoffice]

It's been an unseasonably windy day in parts of southern England with gales, especially in coastal regions 🌬️

The Needles on the Isle of Wight is an exceptionally exposed site but gusts of 50-60 mph are still unusual for June. Winds will continue easing this evening📉

[Met Office @metoffice]

⚠️ Yellow weather warning issued ⚠️

Strong winds across south and southwest England

Saturday 09:00 – 19:00

Latest info 👉 https://t.co/QwDLMfRBfs

Stay #WeatherAware⚠️

[CycloforumsPR @CycloforumsPR]

[Perspectiva Tropical Pacifico Oriental 5 PM]
Mar adentro del sur y suroeste de México (EP91):

Una amplia área de baja presión localizada a unos cientos de millas al suroeste de Zihuatanejo, México, está produciendo una gran área de aguaceros y
tormentas eléctricas. Las condiciones ambientales parecen propicias para el desarrollo de este sistema, y es probable que se forme una depresión tropical a última hora de este fin de semana o a principios
de la próxima semana. Se pronostica que la perturbación se desplazará hacia el noreste y luego hacia el norte cerca de la costa del sur de
México durante los próximos días.

Los intereses en el sur de México deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema. Independientemente del desarrollo, es posible que caigan fuertes lluvias en porciones del sur de México hasta principios de la próxima semana.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta las próximas 48 horas...media...60%.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta los próximos 7 días...alta...70%.

En alta mar de Centroamérica:

Aguaceros desorganizados y tormentas eléctricas ubicadas en las costas de Centroamérica están asociadas con una vaguada de baja presión. Las condiciones ambientales parecen propicias para el desarrollo gradual de este sistema mientras se mueve
lentamente hacia el norte hacia la costa de Centroamérica, y una depresión tropical podría formarse a finales de este fin de semana o a
principios de la próxima semana si el sistema permanece en alta mar.

Independientemente del desarrollo, es posible que caigan fuertes lluvias en partes de Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador y Guatemala hasta principios de la próxima semana.

* Probabilidad de formación hasta las próximas 48 horas...media...40%.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta los próximos 7 días...media...60%.
LMR

[Met Office @metoffice]

A split in the pollen levels today with low in the north but high in the south

Tomorrow sees counts dropping to low for most places with pockets of moderate in the far south

[Met Office @metoffice]

Happy Pride Month 2026 🌈

At the Met Office, we’re proud to be an inclusive employer where everyone should feel able to be themselves at work. Diversity strengthens our people, our work and the communities we serve. Allyship matters, and we all have a role in helping create a culture of belonging.

Wishing our LGBTQ+ colleagues and wider community a happy Pride Month.

[Paul Blight @PaulBlight6]

I'm not one to post long range GFS charts as I'm sure most of you know.

But this one is interesting, more so that its even been produced by the model even if it doesn't end up being accurate. .

There is a large cut off upper level high over the Davis Straight , across Greenland and Iceland. This type of set up with a relatively zonal jet below the cut off across 40-43N is highly unusual for Mid June. That Jet is a long long way south of where it should be for that time of year.
an effective stream of moisture from the Sub Tropics into the mid Atlantic Maritimes such as Azores, then NE towards the UK.

The solution is itself for June would be highly unusual. but the fact the models are in very much broad disagreement tells us something quite interesting we are in quite an unpredictable phase at this time. But this run and this solution would be very very unusual.

Not a Forecast, just an observation of a model.

[MetJam @MetJam_]

An estimated 22,596 km² of the UK exceeded the previous May record of 32.8ºC, based on HadUK-Grid provisional data released today, with a peak temperature of 35.12ºC. By comparison, the July 2022 heatwave had an estimated 28,658 km² exceed the old record of 38.7ºC.

[James Peacock @peacockreports]

Forecast uncertainty for Europe currently takes off ~12th June, with a bifurcation of ECMWF ensemble runs.

Just over half the set builds a high over western Europe during 12th-15th, while the the rest instead drop a slow-moving low over western or central Europe.

[UK Weather Updates @UKWX_]

Tonight's and tomorrow's low pressure system to our SW. Will bring a period of strong winds in W/SW through tonight and tomorrow AM, 50-60mph in exposed coastal parts.

Low expected to weaken as it moves through.

[Met Office @metoffice]

Making plans for Friday or the weekend? Here's the quick forecast ⤵️

Friday: Drier weather with lighter winds as high pressure builds in ⛅

Friday night into Saturday: Turning unsettled as low pressure arrives, bringing stronger winds, especially in the southwest 🌬️

[The Weather Channel @weatherchannel]

BREAKING: Tropical Storm Amanda has formed, marking the first named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Tune in to The Weather Channel for expert analysis and updates.

[Met4Cast - UK Weather @Met4CastUK]

Quite the Marine Heatwave across the Mediterranean and around parts of northwest Europe at the moment.

Sea surface temperatures are 5°C above average in some spots.

[Met Office @metoffice]

What weather conditions should we expect during the next 10 days? 🌦️

It will remain changeable and cool until next week with rain and gusty winds at times. But later next week, it may turn warmer and drier.

Watch our latest 10-day trend with Alex ⤵️

🧵 1/2

[CheeseAndPickleSandwich @CheeseAndPickl4]

Thunderstorm, rain and hail this afternoon in Nuneaton

[Met Office @metoffice]

With low pressure close by, the shower theme continues into tomorrow

These merging to give longer spells of rain at times, before showers become less frequent on Friday 🌦️

[Met Office @metoffice]

We are all set to see some rain this coming week

Parts of the north and west of the UK could see some significant totals, especially over the hills 🌧️