WARNING: Longer post (but worth reading or bookmarking for later).
Your life has seasons.
Each one is unique. Characterized by its own distinct desires, struggles, opportunities, and identity.
But one reflection I've had recently is just how easy it is to completely disassociate with the present season.
To give all your time and energy toward a longing for some nostalgic memory of a prior season or an anticipation for some beautiful state of a future season.
You look back at the past and all you see is sunshine. Because it all worked out. You forget (or glaze over) the struggle you endured. You're here today. You made it. You're alive. You're doing fine.
You look forward at the future and dream on what could be. You'll have so much more. More freedom. More purpose. More health. More deep connection. More everything.
The past is beautiful and the future feels limitless. So, logically, you slowly start to treat everything about the present as the bridge. A dash connecting your past and your future. A gap to be crossed as quickly as possible.
Everything you do today is in anticipation of some eventual end state.
I'm doing this now, so that I can have that later.
Unfortunately, the danger of that dissociation with the present is significant. You may spend your entire life living for a future that has a decidedly mirage-like property. You inch closer, but when it's right in front of you, it disappears and reappears on the horizon.
You may spend your entire life skipping through the present, deferring your presence, your joy, and your very humanity to a future that never comes.
In a classic French fable, a young boy is gifted with a magic ball of golden thread. He's told that if he simply pulls on the thread, time will leap forward. The catch, of course, is that once it's pulled, it can never be put back.
The young boy takes advantage of the newfound powers. Each time he's faced with a boring day at school, a frustrating set of chores, or a scolding from his parents, he pulls the thread, skipping through to the good parts.
As an adult, he continues, leaping through mundane struggles in his marriage, the friction of having a newborn, and the boredom at work. He finds himself pulling on the thread more and more, avoiding even the most minor inconveniences of his life.
But when he wakes up one day and sees an old man looking back at him in the mirror, he's filled with regret. He realizes in that moment that as he chose to skip through the boredom, struggles, and friction, so too did he miss the real texture of being alive.
How often do we all do the same? How easily do we default into this disassociation? Disconnecting from the present in anticipation of some future.
A mentor recently asked me this:
"Where are you going and why are you in such a rush?"
It hit me hard.
And to be honest, I haven't stopped replaying those words since he said them.
Why are you in such a rush?
The world wants you to rush into everything. Rushed decisions. Rushed conversations. Rushed relationships. Rushed timelines.
In doing so, you slowly relinquish your agency. You give up your claim on your own life. Surrender authorship to a pen that was never even yours.
In a world that wants you to rush, the ultimate act of rebellion is presence.
Be in the season you're in. Don't romanticize the past, don't fantasize the future. Be here. Be now. Be in this. All of its texture, depth, and struggle. All of its joy, tension, and pain. Sit with the uncertainty. Become friends with it. Fall in love with it.
Because every single thing you do today is something your younger self dreamed of and something your older self will wish they could go back and do.
The good old days are happening, right now.
And the next time you find yourself skipping through the present, remember these words:
Where are you going and why are you in such a rush?
If anyone tells you that in order to be successful in trading you need to make some unknown discovery on your own... This is a lie!!
- I learned about volatility contraction and progressive exposure from Mark. @markminervini.
- I learned about momentum bursts and Episodic pivots from Pradeep @PradeepBonde
- I learned about the importance of creating a model book for myself with 100s of past examples. As well as the idea of focusing on higher ADR stocks from Kristjan @Qullamaggie
- I learned about stage analysis from Stan @StanWeinstein13
- I learned how to read and interpret COT data from Jason @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt
- I learned the right side of the V concept and proper bet sizing on A+ opportunities from Lance @TheOneLanceB
- I learned to think a little more contrarian from watching @TheShortBear
- I learned about the flat base breakout and value in leading groups from @PatrickWalker56
- I learned about the HVC/HVE edge from @AmeetRai
- I learned about trading more aggressively during high momentum periods from @DanZanger
- I learned about the Undercut and rally or Double top short sale setups from Gil Morales @gilmoandco
- I learned how to think about creating and implementing systems from @Peoplewish
- I learned the failed follow through setup on an intraday timeframe from @InvestorsLive
- I learned about the importance of prior day channels from @danshep55
- I learned about support and resistance gaps for entries from @NickDrendel
- I learned about using the 50sma as a guide to measure extensions from @jfsrev
- I learned about creating a daily trading plan from Marcel Link.
- I learned about the CANSLIM methodology from Bill O'neal
I'm sure there are many I missed but the point is:
Trading knowledge is passed down from one generation to the next. But it is up to us, the trader, to implement what we have learned in a safe manner while we put together all the pieces for ourself.
We live in a time where you DO NOT need to make up some magical elixir for trading in order to be successful.
All the people mentioned above have found an exploitable edge in the market, and like myself relentlessly execute that edge over and over.
I am personally grateful for all of the educators I've had along my journey; which is part of the reason I so willingly share any bit of knowledge I acquire along the way. The same way they all graciously imparted knowledge on me.
A few years back I knew some important and powerful people who would remind me over and over again- “nothing is as it seems, and nobody is who they say they are”.
FCK it. Here's all the sauce.
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I specifically stayed away from this one for a few reasons…
First is that is a fresh, young IPO. I’ve found that the best parabolic shorts often take place on stocks that have been trending at all time highs for many months or quarters and very well known. It only broke above its IPO high on earnings 12 days ago…
Second, the markets just went through a vicious and steep -25% correction, followed by one of the most significant capitulations we have seen in quite some time. I’ve found that the stage of the broad market plays a significant role in the best of the best parabolic shorts (and parabolic shorts aren’t even worth your time unless 5-star imo). If go back and study some of the best of last year you will noticed that they often align with short-medium term peaks or late stage moves in the market/sector.
1. $SMCI & $NVDA (Feb-Mar 2024) - $SMH had been running hot at all times highs for 2-3 months, putting in a +50% move without even testing the 50d moving average. $SMCI / $NVDA blew off and the $SMH entered a -18% correction into April.
2. $NVDA (June 2024) - Semis came out of that correction and a few of the leaders went on another big run. $SMH became even more extended above the 200d moving average than it was in March. After $NVDA blew off, the Nasdaq made a new high for a couple days before ultimately entering a -16% correction into the August 5th panic.
3. $TSLA & $MSTR (Nov-Dec 2024) These were the two momentum, liquid leaders in the few weeks post election. Their parabolic tops ultimately marked a euphoric peak on the broad market that still stands today. The $MSTR blow off basically topped $IWM (which was the risk-on index post election) and $TSLA took place 2 days before the current ATH on the Nasdaq.
Point is, the best parabolic shorts come during the very late stages of a market up-cycle. During those late stages participants are greedy and have been riding a long profit. Stocks become extremely overcrowded and run out of demand. Currently, we are still climbing our way out of a correction. There remains many doubters and under exposure. We haven’t even made a new all time high on the indexes. Not the time I would expect much follow through on a parabolic short, especially on a fresh IPO.
With that being said, $CRWV is beginning to check a few boxes for my criteria. It has not touched the daily 9ema for 16 consecutive sessions and it’s really separating itself from the 20ema. It also had its biggest percentage gain of the entire run today. It appears to be in the “parabolic burst” stage, which is a term I use to define the last leg before a climax peak/bottom.
I would only make an exception to trying this short if we saw 2 things:
1. Another gap up tomorrow (unfilled) with continued range/volume expansion and a close near the high.
2. A final gap up on Thursday.
This would ideally lead to a higher open, closing lower. There is also heavy options activity in this name and those unwinds in these types of gamma driven moves often take place on Thursday or Friday (See $NVDA 2x, $SMCI, $MSTR) all took place on either a Thursday or Friday.
Another added layer of conviction would be that many shorts have been crushed on this already from being too early and likely have given up. If I tried this it would only be a day trade. Will likely post beforehand if going to.
Also, go study the 3-4 days before the parabolic tops on $NVDA $SMCI $MSTR $TSLA and familiarize yourself with the behavior. Those are “parabolic bursts”. The Nasdaq also put in a parabolic burst on 4/3-4/7, but to the downside. Hope this helps some folks.