Westbrook Level

Mostly talking to myself.

I don’t have any followers. I tweet and retweet things I find useful and things I want to think about.

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

I bought back in in the night. Chart here- https://t.co/0njFlCVDob

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

@somethinfierce @brian_armstrong @grok You could understand it if you didn’t have long covid from not getting the vaccine.

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

@ecofreedom @TimmerFidelity https://t.co/qbTmhK6SK6 this curve looks weird right now like the end of Dec. 2018. Usually whales sell as price goes up instead of down.

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

@Grayscale @dogecoin Please pump this next after Zcash. We need some fun and noobs back in crypto.

[Ashwin @metashwin]

Bitcoin has just endured a sharp ~20% correction, falling from its all-time high of $126,000 in early October to around $100,000 in early November 2025. While many point to leveraged liquidations, LTH whales selling, fading ETF inflows, or recession jitters, the core driver appears to be a severe dollar liquidity squeeze—evidenced by the dramatic widening of the SOFR-IORB spread to over 30 basis points in late October.

This wasn’t just a crypto event. The SOFR-IORB spread serves as a critical barometer for liquidity stress in the banking system: when SOFR (the market rate for secured overnight borrowing) trades persistently above IORB (the risk-free rate the Fed pays banks on reserves), it signals that collateralized cash is in short supply, forcing institutions to pay a premium for funding amid reserve distribution imbalances.

Global money markets flashed red: the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) ballooned toward $1 trillion during the ongoing government shutdown, effectively hoarding liquidity that would otherwise circulate in the private sector. Combine that with the Fed’s ongoing Quantitative Tightening (QT)—draining reserves at a pace of up to $95B/month—and you get a textbook risk-off environment where high-beta assets like Bitcoin get crushed first.

But the tide is turning. Several major liquidity tailwinds are converging between now and December:

1. Fed Officially Ends QT on December 1, 2025
The balance sheet runoff stops. No more forced reserve drainage. This is a stealth pivot toward neutral-to-easing conditions, historically one of the strongest catalysts for risk asset rebounds—including Bitcoin’s 150% surge after the 2023 QT pause.

2. Federal Government Reopening (Expected by Mid-November)
Once Congress passes a continuing resolution or full budget, the TGA will begin flushing ~$1 trillion in sequestered cash back into the economy and banking system. That’s a massive liquidity injection—think of it as unplanned QE via fiscal flow—directly easing money market stress and helping to narrow the SOFR-IORB spread.

3. Supreme Court Ruling Against Broad Trump Tariffs (Likely Late November)
Oral arguments were held November 5. Legal analysts expect a decision by late November or early December. A ruling limiting or striking down tariffs imposed under IEEPA authority would defuse trade war escalation fears, reduce inflationary pressure, and free up billions in corporate cash flow currently frozen in supply chain hedging. Even a partial win calms markets and supports risk appetite.

Bottom line:
The current dip isn’t structural—it’s a liquidity-driven flush in a macro setup that’s about to flip. Watch for confirmation signals:
- SOFR-IORB spread narrowing and stabilizing below 10 basis points
- SOFR dropping below 3.8%
- TGA balance declining post-shutdown
- Repo facility usage fading

If these align, $120,000+ retest by year-end is very much in play. This could be the final shakeout before the next leg up.
Accumulate the dip. Liquidity is coming.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Macro #Liquidity

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

@0xbags all we need

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

@Icebergy Please God.

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

@swansonbenson0 few

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

@cobie We are all gonna make it.

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

@stephenjhall @EricBalchunas Don’t you think he knows the difference? Stop gatekeeping.

[glassnode @glassnode]

Since March 11, #Bitcoin's Accumulation Trend Score has risen above 0.1, indicating some buying during the recent downtrend. While distribution remains dominant, this shift suggests early signs of accumulation.

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

@xmgnr Welcome back.

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

@WuBlockchain My AVAX bags awakening from death.

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

@stogolp Bitcoin getting irrationally toppy again.

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

@ericjuta @askginadotai Nice one!

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

@0xG00gly flesh wound

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

@Brentsketit Imagine the smell.

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

@threesigmaxyz @DegenSpartan would have loved this.

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

https://t.co/c8XAYDHF2Q

[Westbrook Level @Westbrook_Level]

@WuBlockchain 1) What