Fellow for Latin America Studies @CFR_org. PhD @PUPolitics. Fulbright Colombia/Peru/Guatemala 2022. Columnist @AmerQuarterly. Own opinions, RTs ≠ Endorsements.
My latest for the NYT: "You Can Kill a Democracy Without a Dictator."
On what's happening in Peru and in large parts of Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil.
Read here: https://t.co/Ck4ivz1J0S
@NickBurns Sánchez could play that role - or less likely, oppose congress & engage in a stand-off. Unclear how that ends.
Keiko will actually run things. At least co-equal, if not the boss, but not a hostage.
Pick your poison.
Trump's Colombia comments this week make his lack of an endorsement of Keiko Fujimori in Peru even more pronounced. Why not?
Maybe Trump's Peru endorsement drops soon, but even then, given how active he's been in other LatAm elections, the Peru silence up to now is odd.
"It's as if Racionais MC's sing about the Brazil that was transformed by Lula's first and second governments. And Emicida sings about the Brazil that needs to be transformed today."
https://t.co/ayAERIftxM
Genuinely horrifying report by the brave @KarolNorona: in 2025, 3 inmates died every day in Ecuador.
And unlike in El Salvador, harsh prisons are *not* meaningfully reducing criminal violence, because so many gang members still cycle out or evade capture.
https://t.co/8mr2DdJBSF
@Stephentwoodman This is a crazy line from the story...
University of Guadalajara studies found higher rates of disappearances in areas with street markets and a predominance of Android phones. In contrast, wealthy neighborhoods, with more iPhones and swimming pools, report few, if any cases.
..knew 4yrs ago, & the one I have read & had countless conversations about from 40 years ago, Guatemala is a better place.
More on the mix of hope & frustration I encountered soon.
Just returned from Guatemala for the first time in 3 years
I'll have a piece out soon on what I saw and heard - specifically on the deep disagreements among social democrats on whether Arévalo played his cards right
But here is why I lean optimistic about the country regardless
..& stigma associated w/ political participation, specifically in left/social democratic politics, among young people (both urban & rural) that I met.
Economic inequality, racism, huge infrastructure & public services shortfalls all persist, but compared to the country I...
In March I wrote about Petro's remarkable polling rebound for Americas Quarterly.
So why did it fail to translate into a stronger showing for Iván Cepeda in yesterday's election, & why does Colombia look poised to turn hard right?
A few thoughts... 🧵
https://t.co/6l3yBLmAmn
..Has left behind some messes to clean up, but most likely it won't be the left that has to handle them; it will be de la Espriella.
The left might return to office in 2030 glad that it didn't have to oversee the intervening four years, provided they're rocky ones.
...Presidents/parties looked at first like strength. But it meant they needed to wrestle with the unintended and undesired consequences of their first term policies & corruption.
When they couldn't solve these problems, they bore clear responsibility, & paid dearly.
Petro..