Every correction follows the same playbook btw
1. First u feel it in ur own trades. Stops hit frequently. Progress gets difficult.
2. Then while ur equity curve is down and stocks are down 50%+ everybody tweets “why is everyone being rediculous the indexes are only 3% off highs”
3. Finally you get the posts saying breadth is increasing the market is so healthy, except they forget to mention the stocks going up aren’t growth they are defensive stocks like energy and a bull market needs GROWTH stocks.
Boom…. correction hits… but how indexes were near highs and breadth was improving??
Curate who you follow
Vibe-trading digital oil is like vibe-hedging in treasuries during Hormuz risk-off. Both share one house of cards that works on paper.
Difference: oil at least has Dated Brent. Treasuries? Vibes all the way down.
EUCRBRDT Index GP <GO>
Asked someone from the industry whether foreign investors are still interested in allocating to India. The TLDR:
Interest has pretty much died out. India is seen as geopolitically exposed, especially to an oil shock. There are no real AI plays. Valuations are rich. And the rupee situation doesn't help.
On top of that, investors who were sitting on gains have taken money off the table and are now looking at markets like Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Europe etc instead.
He also pointed out that our LTCG/STCG structure and the increase in STT have made India less attractive compared to other markets that are seeing inflows.
If we need to attract FPIs back, and we do, fixing this feels like pretty low-hanging fruit.
TRUMP AGREES TO SUSPEND BOMBING & STRIKES ON IRAN FOR TWO WEEKS IN A DOUBLE-SIDED CEASEFIRE; SAYS 10-POINT IRANIAN PROPOSAL IS WORKABLE BASIS FOR NEGOTIATIONS
TRUMP SAYS ALMOST ALL POINTS OF CONTENTION AGREED UPON BETWEEN US & IRAN; CLAIMS DEFINITIVE LONGTERM PEACE DEAL VERY FAR ALONG & TWO-WEEK PERIOD WILL ALLOW AGREEMENT TO BE FINALIZED
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I vividly remember in the beginning of '23, before the roaring bull market kicked off and $SPY needed a couple more months of consolidation + a final higher low to form, $NVDA just took off.
We joked, no matter what happens, $NVDA will rise. Little did we know at the time this initial relative strength it was showing would be the start of a 1000%+ move over the next 30 months.
This reminds me so much of the current $FSLY action, just goes up every single day no matter what ayatollah is calling the shots.
If market is stable, $FSLY is probably $40+ right now. Can only imagine where this thing is headed over the next 30 months. 💡
I haven’t had a serious drawdown since the 1980s—just a few single-digit down years in over three decades. How? A deep respect for risk and unconditional patience.
A few key rules:
1. Always cut losses short - no big losses. no exceptions!
2. Only trade large on the heels of smaller trades working
3. Always trade progressively smaller when
trades aren't working
4. Never average down
5. Never let a good-size gain turn into a loss
6. No forced trades - no style drift
We have been advising caution. Tape action beneath the surface is worse than the indexes appear. For the most part, breakouts are not following through and too many reversals to justify aggressive trading. Patience is a virtue and cash is a position.
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If I were new to trading, I would have thrown in the towel with this price action. As I've said since October, the biggest damage happens when indexes kind of trend but deterioration, fast rotation, and small pockets of opportunity exist. Things are easy in clear downtrends or momentum uptrends.
These are the periods when you truly internalize that defense is the priority in trading and find ways to reinforce it.
Offense should always be justified by great defense, no matter the regime. Trading, sports, war....it all works the same.
Don't be demoralized if you've made many mistakes. We've all lived and learned through them. It takes time. And that's why screen time can't be taught or passed on