$BTC
One thing I've noticed from years of backtesting Bitcoin is just how reliable weekly RSI divergence has become for identifying when a cycle top is approaching.
In both the 2021 and 2025 cycle, RSI began making macro lower highs while price continued pushing to fresh highs.
Momentum was fading relatively aggressively, even as we saw price grinding higher to reach new all-time highs.
By the time the third RSI drive completed, the divergence with price was quite significant, and both cycles were followed by sizeable corrections within a short period of time.
2017 was the slight outlier, largely because Bitcoin was still in a very early stage of adoption, with enough momentum behind it to push roughly 100x over a few years.
But we've started to see over the last few cycles, that once RSI starts diverging on the weekly, the probability that the cycle is entering its final stages begins increasing.
Your job now is to remember it for the next cycle.
i've gone through quite a few journals the past few years
[ what didn't work ]:
- taking over 2 to 3 trades per day
- back to back entries (re-entering after a loser)
- trading too many pairs (spreading themselves thin)
- random sizing
- only using market orders (they’d always be offside anyways)
- executing using timeframes below 5m
- not having daily structure (some morning routine)
- adding to a losing position (quite obvious)
- entering before knowing where they would exit
[ what was working ]:
- limiting trading to certain session hours (new york/close)
- planning specific levels (not zones) before each session
- sizing in accordance to regime (example: 5d vs 60d atr)
- increasing initial trade size once already in profit
- focusing on price action from their avg trade time
- trading majors (btc,eth) nothing smaller than solana
- aiming for a 45% + win rate (low-mid win % in general)
[ why they were messing up ]:
- trading pnl graph (thinking of past results)
- not accounting for probabilities resetting
- social media impact on their execution
- spreading thin across pairs to avoid boredom
- inability to not mess with an open position
- not stepping away from the desk frequent enough
- outcome focused mindset over input focused
[ actions they used to fix ]:
- collected data (having data = conviction)
- reviewing after every trade (creates time delay)
- turn off the pnl completely
- adopting a 3 question checklist before entering
- removing all trading apps from phone
- strictly limiting time on socials (lookup "brick - social")
none of this is to say there’s a right or wrong way to trade.
i'm 100% certain there are people trading 20 trades per day making money, and people trading 15 different pairs too.
i just wanted to share my personal observations from people I have worked with.
This is probably my most important post.
The FED stole your future and there is no going back
"The system is rigged. The deep state does not want us to be free. The American dream is dead."
Statements like these conjure images of deep pessimism, a worldview where you have no agency, where you are merely a puppet dancing for malignant powers you cannot see or touch. We are not people who live in that camp. But sometimes, certain data points are so damning that they leave us no choice but to admit: something is seriously wrong, and it needs to be laid out in the open.
Every time I visit India now, I find people agitated. Even those in the top 10% of the income bracket, earning anywhere from ₹50 lakhs to a crore per year, feel like they are running on a treadmill that keeps accelerating. No matter how fast they move, it is never enough. At the ground level, the situation is far worse. It is the same story everywhere. In Canada, both partners in a household work full time and still fall short each month. In Australia, young professionals earn well and own nothing. In Germany, the middle class quietly shrinks. The geography changes. The exhaustion does not.
And the origins of this mess are not in New Delhi or Ottawa or Berlin. They are in Washington D.C. All of us are paying the price for a policy disaster handed down from ivory towers, by people most of us never elected and, frankly, never even saw.
Consider this: the U.S. money supply (M2) grew by 40% in just 2 years
*The Federal Reserve United States Money Supply M2*
January 1, 2020: $15.4 trillion
January 1, 2022: $21.6 trillion
A staggering ~40% increase
As of Mar-26, $ 22.6 Tn
( so they never reversed the increased money supply although Covid got over)
Unprecedented in the history of the Federal Reserve post-World War 2 era. (Source: FRED) This massive injection of liquidity created asset bubbles across the economy. Wages stayed stagnant. Those who owned capital benefited enormously. Everyone else got the inflation.
Most people have not yet identified the cause of their frustration, but they have begun to feel its effects viscerally. And that feeling, that the system simply cannot deliver on their aspirations, has become the quiet tailwind driving a very dangerous behavioural shift.
The more people sense that conventional paths are closed off, the more they reach for asymmetric bets, even knowing the odds are stacked heavily against them. The explosion of betting apps and prediction markets, Kalshi, Polymarket, Dream11 and their many cousins, are not trends. They are symptoms of a broken economy. The feverish rise in F&O trading and the massive uptick in exchange volumes are different expressions of the same underlying truth: when people stop trusting the system to reward honest effort, they start gambling on outcomes instead.
New article is now LIVE!
I break down exactly how to tell when you should be buying $CVX over $CRV and vice versa based on both their prices at any given time.
After reading the article below you'll be able to determine this yourself, at any given time, without my (or anyone else's) assistance.
Likes/shares/comments appreciated as always, enjoy! 👇
New edu video is live on @teamspitfire69 YouTube.
Fibonacci Retracement & Trend-Based Extension
Combine fibs with what we previously learned about market structure, liquidity and confluence and this is how we build sniper AOIs and entries.🎯📉📈
https://t.co/3Xn8tHCXtZ
Researchers trained a humanoid robot to play tennis using only 5 hours of motion capture data
The robot can now sustain multi-shot rallies with human players, hitting balls traveling >15 m/s with a ~90% success rate
AlphaGo for every sport is coming
Little fibonacci cheat sheet.
fibonacci works best when you draw it in the direction of the trend.
sounds obvious — most people still get it wrong.
bullish trend + bullish fib = higher probability
bearish trend + bearish fib = higher probability
bullish trend + bearish fib = lower probability
bearish trend + bullish fib = lower probability
nothing is completely wrong or completely right in trading. this is about probabilities, not certainties.
stack the odds in your favour.