ZARkiwi

Christian Conservative

[ZARkiwi @ZARkiwi]

https://t.co/PzxEpX8Upk

[Grain of Salt @GrainofSaltSF]

I’m on!

[ZARkiwi @ZARkiwi]

@layeredstacks Maybe the market is saying it wants more yield for the increased risk of a lower cash reserve. Either way, great entry point here, even better for STRK.

[ZARkiwi @ZARkiwi]

@A5T3R0lD So? Did you buy a shit load?

[ZARkiwi @ZARkiwi]

@rektfencer 🤣🤣🤡 blatant lying like this are great bottom signals.

[ZARkiwi @ZARkiwi]

@dotkrueger @GaryCardone is correct. It's not an $MSTR or $STRC issue when btc drops 4.8% in 30min. Don't agree that people should wait here to buy G. Most don't have enough BTC like you.

[ZARkiwi @ZARkiwi]

@PeterSchiff And if he doesn't and finds another way? Will you publicly apologise and call yourself a retard?

[ZARkiwi @ZARkiwi]

@_Adrian 💯

[ZARkiwi @ZARkiwi]

@_Adrian Ambulance chasers will chase. This was to be expected. Wouldn't be a surprise for Strategy.

[ZARkiwi @ZARkiwi]

@mattkratter @McJohnaldson You turned out to actually be a rather emotional irrational guy. Sad.

[ZARkiwi @ZARkiwi]

@Algorilla_ @TheSamsPodcast Bookmark this.

[ZARkiwi @ZARkiwi]

@mattkratter Absolutely. Even better now with a 0.5% lift likely. 👌

[ZARkiwi @ZARkiwi]

@mattkratter @john_giovanni_ That's just your opinion.

[BRITAIN IS BROKEN 🇬🇧 @BROKENBRITAIN0]

Remember the video that was circulating yesterday of the African migrant masturbating on a public beach in front of young children?

Well, here is the aftermath 🤛 💥

Enjoy 😁

[Adrian Morris @_Adrian]

$BTC | $MSTR: Welcome to the Gulag friends. It'll be OK.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

I ran a BRUTAL 3-year MSTR stress test.

Not the cute kind.

The “Bitcoin crashes 55% from here, mNAV collapses below 0.50x, capital markets are closed, cash gets burned, BTC has to be sold to pay the senior stack, and everyone on X is filming their victory lap in the clown mirror” kind.

Starting point:

BTC: $59,135
MSTR: $87.64
Total BTC: 847,363
Cash: $1.4B
CEBE: 138,161 sats/share
Claim ratio: 41.5%

Then the model nukes BTC to $26,611 by month 6.

The senior stack does exactly what fixed-dollar claims do when collateral crashes.

It explodes in BTC terms.

Senior claims go from 351,567 BTC to 819,073 BTC.

Claim ratio spikes from 41.5% to 96.7%.

Common equity BTC collapses from 495,796 BTC to 28,290 BTC.

CEBE gets annihilated:

138,161 sats/share → 7,884 sats/share.

MSTR stock gets modeled from $87.64 to $1.01.

That is the horror movie.

Would the stock price actually go this low in that scenario? I doubt it. 2022 had NEGATIVE -14,000+ of common equity sats exposure and the stock never dropped below $10.

But here is where the bear case gets uncomfortable.

The model assumes:

Zero new BTC buys. Zero common issuance.

$167.7M/month of obligations.

Cash gone by month 9.

BTC sales begin after cash is exhausted.

Over 3 years, MSTR sells 115,727 BTC to keep servicing the stack.

That is real damage.

But it still ends with 731,636 BTC.

Final state:

BTC: $48,498
MSTR: $51.86
mNAV: 1.40x
Common equity BTC: 274,093
CEBE: 76,380 sats/share
Claim ratio: 62.5%

MSTR survives.

The common gets dragged through flaming glass for 18 months, but it survives.

The real risk is not “instant bankruptcy" like all the FUD spreaders are telling you.

The real risk is CEBE compression while fixed-dollar senior claims temporarily consume almost the entire Bitcoin stack in BTC-equivalent terms.

Survival is not comfort.

But death spiral?

This model says no.

[ZARkiwi @ZARkiwi]

@MartiniGuyYT No. You are lying. It's an add for a law suit. Ambulance chasing.

[The Wolf Of All Streets @scottmelker]

This is not an “investigation.”

It is a law firm running an ad for a class action suit that anyone can file against… anyone.

[Grain of Salt @GrainofSaltSF]

I'm On.
https://t.co/4qbYU68xgQ

[Grain of Salt @GrainofSaltSF]

I'm on!!!

[ZARkiwi @ZARkiwi]

@dominickolas1 @GrainofSaltSF Never thought Mike was hiding. His other name was a motorcycle reference. He's a petrol head 👌