zamgmail zam

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

@AverageDipBuyer Given lending centric balance sheet / business, not sure many would have an appetite for $SOFI. Even if there is, valuation would not be good.

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

@midascabal Have big $SOXS long position. Love it.

[Midas @midascabal]

Calling it now: this is the start of the LARGEST market crash in stock market history. we have been euphoric for too long and for no reason.

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

Issue is peak earnings led valuations are deceiving. AI sector mostly peaked in earnings. 85% margin won’t be 95% and 100% yoy growth won’t be 200% now. Market is smart (actually institutional sector and hedge funds are smart). They are all selling in peak earnings. It is best case scenario. Will only head lower now. Rotation will follow.

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

@TheLongInvest Below $100

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

@TheLongInvest Thanks for sharing. Didn’t notice before. But seems like big head n shoulder staring at, with already breaking below neckline. Quite bearish. Measured move would be around $100 mark it seems

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

@theincomewheel Cherry picking - his $PLTR $NVDA shorts and many others worked quite well. No one is 100%.

[DarvasBoxAI🔲🤖 @DarvasBoxAI]

The space trade is dead for now, don't even think about it, the volume in $UFO is telling me this loud and clear

when you have a peak followed by almost-as-big red volume and then avg volume collapses that tells you that institutions are NOT interested and will not allocate big $$ to this area anytime soon. Hot $$ has gone elsewhere for now

[investing @DollarCostAvg]

🚨: JUST IN:

Rosenblatt remains bullish on $AAOI. The firm expects a 2Q26 beat & raise, with 800G shipments to Amazon and $ORCL Oracle driving revenue above $200M, followed by ~$300M in 3Q26 and continued gross margin expansion.

Longer term, the AI optical cycle is only accelerating. Political decoupling and the transition to CPO are tightening supply, with many Western optical suppliers already sold out through 2027–2028 that is $LITE , $COHR , which makes $AAOI even a strong buy due to only company fully vertically integrated in optics, transceivers.

This isn’t just an $NVDA story anymore. $AMZN, $MSFT, $GOOGL, $META, $AVGO, and now $AAPL are all investing heavily in AI infrastructure and custom silicon. As every hyperscaler builds larger AI clusters, demand for 800G, 1.6T, and next-generation optical interconnects continues to rise.

$AAOI is emerging as one of the clearest beneficiaries of this multi-year AI optics supercycle.

$AMZN remains $AAOI their bigger customer , and $AMD rumors to be their potential new customer. ✅

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

Spot on.

Frontier models the end of the day will be a “commodity” given sovereign AI leads to country ownership + open source + cheaper ways to train —> this means AI being unique, transformative, once in 1000 years tech but risks associated with ROI are real and consolidation is likely to happen.

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

Yes and no.

If trader, then don’t agree. As for trading you don’t need valuation but price action technicals and momentum.

If long term and value investor, I fully agree - that is stay away from cyclicals which look cheap due to peak earnings. As what you are buying today $MU essentially paying for peak earnings. That is bringing down multiple and makes it look cheap. $100-125 EPS for $MU as projected now is peak till supply hits 2028 onwards. There is lock in long term agreements now that would ease the pain. For long term hold, risk not worth the reward.

Other risk which is not weighed in technical advances / something new that is an over-hang.

Also in HBW memory $MU technology is behind Samsung. So keep that in mind as well.

Was a great buy 3 months back, not now.

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

One of the reasons.

My take is there is more to it:

- With 60 cents earning, $SOFI can’t expect price being much higher, unless MOAT is like $TSLA or $PLTR. Which is not the case. Lending is commoditised business.

- Lending is a risky area. I have hardly seen over 10’year period (seeing at least 1 credit cycle), a lending book in any market or any bank performing with positive P&L (earning). Usually 1 year of credit cycle completely eats up 9 years of profits. Market realises this and hence re-rating to higher multiples not likely, until diversification away from lending balance sheet play. Lending a “sun shine” days product and not “rainy days”

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

The ones who had taken this trade, would have made serious $$$s

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

My take for next week:

1) EXIT LONG ON AI ON STRENGTH / REBOUND

2) ENTER SHORT ON $SOXX - consider buying 15-20 delta 21 days out LONG CALLS on $SOXS also, for fun play (keep position small, but can give outsize gains)

3) HEDGE / MONEY ROTATION - enter long on $XLV (lowest correlation 0.18 to SOXX) and $IGV (has run quite a bit, so small, but also has lower correlation 0.22 to SOXX)

4) MAG7 may gain, infrastructure / compute layer (including MEMORY) will go down. So may keep long on MAG7.

Working Thesis for AI

1) Strong chance in upcoming earnings one of hyperscaler will cut on CAPEX ($AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META). It will net benefit hyperscalers given they have wider moat / product variety. Will be TRAGIC for AI Compute / Infrastructure layer. $META gave a flavour of that last week.

2) Token costs present CATCH 22. AI investments are financed / supposed to be financed by FRONTIER MODELS. Both Anthropic / OpenAI will have to reduce token cost else there will be cuts / caps on token use as well move to Open Sourced models (cheaper, more customisable). If reduce, then higher use / utilization could be tail wind in long run, but in the immediate will be hard to achieve, valuations will go down, revenue will go down, hence financing COMPUTE / Infrastructure will be questioned.

3) AI STOCKS have run way too hard already. 4-5x in 3-4 months. And they are ahead of what AI may / may not deliver.

SUMMARY

I think AI will change everything. So bullish on AI. But current risks present FROTH has to be settled first.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

@MikeLongTerm Karp has been saying it for years!

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

Engulfing candle on weekly for $SOXX.

Monday, likely pump - dump.

Let’s see if pump can take out engulfing candle with close higher than the candle.

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

My take for next week:

1) EXIT LONG ON AI ON STRENGTH / REBOUND

2) ENTER SHORT ON $SOXX - consider buying 15-20 delta 21 days out LONG CALLS on $SOXS also, for fun play (keep position small, but can give outsize gains)

3) HEDGE / MONEY ROTATION - enter long on $XLV (lowest correlation 0.18 to SOXX) and $IGV (has run quite a bit, so small, but also has lower correlation 0.22 to SOXX)

4) MAG7 may gain, infrastructure / compute layer (including MEMORY) will go down. So may keep long on MAG7.

Working Thesis for AI

1) Strong chance in upcoming earnings one of hyperscaler will cut on CAPEX ($AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META). It will net benefit hyperscalers given they have wider moat / product variety. Will be TRAGIC for AI Compute / Infrastructure layer. $META gave a flavour of that last week.

2) Token costs present CATCH 22. AI investments are financed / supposed to be financed by FRONTIER MODELS. Both Anthropic / OpenAI will have to reduce token cost else there will be cuts / caps on token use as well move to Open Sourced models (cheaper, more customisable). If reduce, then higher use / utilization could be tail wind in long run, but in the immediate will be hard to achieve, valuations will go down, revenue will go down, hence financing COMPUTE / Infrastructure will be questioned.

3) AI STOCKS have run way too hard already. 4-5x in 3-4 months. And they are ahead of what AI may / may not deliver.

SUMMARY

I think AI will change everything. So bullish on AI. But current risks present FROTH has to be settled first.

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

@BMNRTracker Yes. With layer 2 eating up revenue. Hence $ETH thesis on supply limitations pushing price not playing up.

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

My take for next week:

1) EXIT LONG ON AI ON STRENGTH / REBOUND

2) ENTER SHORT ON $SOXX - consider buying 15-20 delta 21 days out LONG CALLS on $SOXS also, for fun play (keep position small, but can give outsize gains)

3) HEDGE / MONEY ROTATION - enter long on $XLV (lowest correlation 0.18 to SOXX) and $IGV (has run quite a bit, so small, but also has lower correlation 0.22 to SOXX)

4) MAG7 may gain, infrastructure / compute layer (including MEMORY) will go down. So may keep long on MAG7.

Working Thesis for AI

1) Strong chance in upcoming earnings one of hyperscaler will cut on CAPEX ($AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META). It will net benefit hyperscalers given they have wider moat / product variety. Will be TRAGIC for AI Compute / Infrastructure layer. $META gave a flavour of that last week.

2) Token costs present CATCH 22. AI investments are financed / supposed to be financed by FRONTIER MODELS. Both Anthropic / OpenAI will have to reduce token cost else there will be cuts / caps on token use as well move to Open Sourced models (cheaper, more customisable). If reduce, then higher use / utilization could be tail wind in long run, but in the immediate will be hard to achieve, valuations will go down, revenue will go down, hence financing COMPUTE / Infrastructure will be questioned.

3) AI STOCKS have run way too hard already. 4-5x in 3-4 months. And they are ahead of what AI may / may not deliver.

SUMMARY

I think AI will change everything. So bullish on AI. But current risks present FROTH has to be settled first.

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

@jiahanjimliu @daniel_koss @usppdd $OUST showing classic Head & Shoulder, and already breaking to the downside. Buy zone $25-30

[zamgmail zam @ZMam02291]

@JamesWynnReal CASINO