awad_ziad

CEO @AwadCapital Mergers&Acquisitions, Macro, BTC. 30+ years in Finance. Ex GS and BAML. My posts are not investment advice.

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

Because 1/ growth is the one reason yields are going up no one wants to talk about and 2/ yields are actually suppressed and would be much higher if they were left with no intervention

Of yields were to reach or surpass their natural level then stocks and the economy would get hit.

We are not there yet but at this pace of yield increases, we may be there soon !

[QE Infinity @StealthQE4]

10 year yield 5.32%.

Why are the markets not selling off?

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

@great_martis Great call, o great @great_martis

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

I disagree. High enough yields could suck liquidity our fo the stock market and the economy, stabilize the bond market and pop the stock market bubble and economic growth.

This would result in central bank intervention further boosting bond markets and of course liquidity to save the stock market and the economy.

Expect volatility ahead. Stay nimble.

[Joseph Brown @heresyfinancial]

Goldman Sachs says yields are surging because there are "zero buyers" of US debt, and it's "totally bidless"

This is not a doomsday prediction, just an observation that sellers are finding it difficult to find liquidity without moving the price

This isn't solved by higher yields attracting liquidity either, because the largest buyers of US debt don't care about absolute yield, they care about their spread

This is a liquidity issue, and can only be "solved" (temporarily) by a large enough increase in the money supply

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

We are one "dis" away from "disorderly". Once the "disorderly" word is out, governments are obligated to intervene and asset prices will scream. Until then, it's open season selling long bonds all over the world.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

The IMF issuing a statement to reassure the public that bond markets are "functioning in an orderly manner" is highly unusual—and risks raising more questions than it answers.
#economy #markets #bonds #yields @IMFNews

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

These strong data releases make it even more impressive that the short end is rallying!

The market is gradually realizing that it got way too pessimistic regarding Fed rate hikes.

An in-line or weak number tomorrow Friday could result in a massive short covering rally!

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Today's US data releases, which come ahead of tomorrow's more comprehensive jobs report, point to continued robust economic activity, solid labor market, and greater cost pressures.
Specifically:
Labor market: With initial jobless claims below 200,000 once again (at 197,000), this partial indicator points to continued strength.
ISM Manufacturing: The slight dip in September to 54.5 (below the consensus forecast of 55.0 and down from 54.6 in September) occurred even though new orders beat expectations (55.3 vs. 54.7).
Price pressures: Costs are well ahead of expectations (79.9 vs. 73.0 consensus, up from August's 71.1). This is contributing to longer lead times for supply deliveries.
#economy #markets #inflation #growth

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

Gold is going to rip once yields stabilize. An asset that barely goes down in the face of adverse news is likely to rally very strongly once the bad news fades.

Now apply the same logic to Bitcoin and to equities and you can expect a massive "everything rally" once the bond market drama calms down just a little bit.

Particularly given year-end and post-midterm seasonality !

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

Gold ETF holdings continue to rise & are near Feb 2026 highs (below).

Major North American gold dealer "Out of Stock" on Canadian .9999 1 oz. Maple Leaf coins for 1st time I can recall in years.

Gold over $1,000 off ATH's, LOL

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

@KobeissiLetter Why is it unsustainable ?

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

This is huge ! Only reason the market is not much higher already is that we have a wall of data this week. But risks are significantly skewed to the bullish side … fasten your seatbelts!

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

New Fed guidance: “There is no need for urgency.”

John Williams, the vice chair of the FOMC, delivers notably precise pushback in guiding against an October rate hike that has been getting priced by investors.

https://t.co/oiiGMrism4

He lays out his base case: One more hike “may be appropriate late this year.”

Following Warsh’s press conference two weeks ago, markets had pushed pricing of an October rate increase above 50% — to as high as 70% in futures markets in recent days.

Here is the key passage from the NY Fed president’s prepared remarks on Tuesday afternoon: “With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information. The accumulation of more data should provide greater clarity on the underlying trends in the economy and the associated risks to achieving our goals—and thereby the appropriate setting of monetary policy.”

“If the economy evolves in a manner broadly consistent with my forecast, one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year to support a timelier return of inflation to target. But that is just my forecast, and time—and the totality of the data—will tell.”

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

I have been a bond bear for longer than I can recall.

But now I think we are probably at the end of this hyperbolic move in yields, at least for now. Looks like a blow-off top to me!

Why? 1/ Bearish sentiment is at an extreme. 2/ The short end is pricing hikes beyond what the Fed would actually deliver (probably). 3/ Economic growth is good but the market is not pricing any downside risks

What will be the catalyst for yields to snap back down? Probably this week's PCE, or more likely the Non Farm Payrolls on Friday, a notoriously volatile series prone to large revisions.

Watch this space!

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

@ZiadMDaoud Sovereigns replenishing their strategic reserves? Shorts who were keeping the market down and waited for this time to cover having to cover at higher prices?

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

@chigrl This means retail is buying but another market participant is selling more. @grok any data on this ?

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

@TechCharts Great call @TechCharts . It takes a lot of vision to see such moves

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

I was thinking the same until I saw yesterday’s record move being catalyzed effectively by a strong PMI number. We have to consider the fact growth, in addition to fiscal woes and inflation is resulting in a perfect storm for bond markets. Why would the move be led by the short end if it was only about fiscal and inflation worries? Even the Bloomberg bros know you can’t print diesel

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

Seems the « Bloomberg bros » remain undefeated

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

More importantly, in more than 30 years of investing and trading in all markets from emerging to developed, the “market” always loves to take the other side of government intervention - and it usually wins.

Ironically one of the most famous cases of this is Soros “breaking the Bank of England” but there are many others, particularly in EM currencies and rates.

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

@KobeissiLetter Why and how is it unsustainable given it is not stopping the government or corporates from financing themselves ?

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

Bloomberg Bros of the World Unite!

[Aksel Kibar, CMT @TechCharts]

No politician ever won a fight against Bloomberg Bros.

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

Look around: Bond yields are not correlated with anything; they just go up with some minor corrections form time to time to unwind their oversold status.

Even the much touted "Fed hikes will bring long yields down" did not materialize. Frankly it did not make any sense to me. And before you say anything, if the Fed cuts, long yields would go up too. Only a massive (100BP+) cut by the Fed would bring long yields down but it would be a steepening rally.

There are only to things that will bring long yields down: Either 1/ Fiscal austerity - which is not going to happen until we have a regime shift or 2/ Yield Curve Control - which will happen, but the timing is uncertain.

Hence why yields will keep going up.

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

Look closely.

Oil has been falling for the last five days, but US 10-year Treasury yields have refused to follow. Instead, they made a new high today, crossing 5%.

Lately, oil and yields have been moving with a very strong correlation. Now, that relationship has suddenly broken down.

The bond market is refusing to acknowledge the selloff in oil.

You know which market is lying.

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

Bitcoin is the alpha macro asset and always is the fastest out of the gates.

Risk assets are in for a tremendous run probably before even the mid terms and definitley after them.

Every possible bad news has been thrown at the US equity market and it remains within % of ATH . Imagine what it will do in the absence of bad news, let alone some good news for a change!

You are not bullish enough!

[LondonCryptoClub @LDNCryptoClub]

These Iran headlines don’t come as a surprise in a week where Trump and Xi are set to meet

Don’t sleep on the importance of this meeting

China are the big power broker in the US/Iran war

Trump needs an off ramp

Recent tone from Bessent has very much been about “win win” outcomes

Deals and agreement on AI, the dollar, treasuries…it’s all on the table

If all goes well, think it’s a potential catalyst for the biggest Q4 risk melt up that we’ve ever seen

Maybe Bitcoin as the ultimate macro asset is sniffing out what’s about to come 👀

[awad_ziad @Zee_Debase]

I often think about this