Aaron Zwack

Trade Ideas, Charts, and Market Analysis —— Free Newsletter:

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

👀

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

If at first you don't succeed...
After quickly being stopped at a less than 1% loss, today, I re shorted $SPY with about the same percentage stop. Still holding some longs, so the short is more of a hedge by default.
We also sold $IBKR into strength this morning to lock down a tidy profit.
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[Mark Ritchie II @MarkRitchie_II]

Well I must say I'm a bit surprised how perfect this setup is becoming here so I'll do a little thread on this as $BTC/$IBIT is a really classic cup w handle.

Looking at the spot chart this looks really constructive as volatility is contracting from left to right during this basing period. For anyone who wants to really understand how I view technicals read the chapter in @markminervini book 'a picture is worth a million dollars'.
Charts in my view DO NOT cause anything, they are simply the effect. Most of them (probably 99% of the time) are noise, but on occasion they present something very interesting.

A few other nuances. If you look at the bottoms of both the cup & respective handle (using $IBIT I know volume doesn't account for spot) they were formed via a shakeout with good volume on the weekly. Classic strong hands taking out weak hands type action.
Furthermore if you count the number of weeks in the prior base and the current they are very similar which is also a nuance that shows its under institutional accumulation (33-34 weeks prior, about 30 current).

Lastly if you look at the daily again the handle itself is a smaller cup with handle with its own shakeout at the lows. Where the handles completion then completes the larger pattern for really nice fractal/symmetry. This isn't random price action imho.
I'm talking my book as this is one of my biggest positions but should we breakout it will be even bigger as this looks like one lobbed right over the heart of the plate to my eye. Could it morph or fail, sure. Could we get another shakeout, of course. I'm actually surprised it's this good but reminds me a bit of the $NVDA cup & handle at the beginning of last year I thought was 'too obvious' and I sold it WAY too early.

Lets see how it plays out.

[Oliver Kell @OliverKell_]

NAMO got to -58 and QQQ trying to hold 200SMA. Been an important level through the bull market. I took the futures long but more of a trade.....if could hold here maybe stocks can setup....on the August hold consolidated another month or two and then set.

[Oliver Kell @OliverKell_]

View us as in a chop tape and approaching a potential lower high area again....so want to see price build-up and setting up this descending trendline without rejecting.

[Matt Caruso, CFA, CMT @Trader_mcaruso]

Today definitely did it... solidly into fear territory

[Aaron Zwack @Zwack_Charts]

Biggest stock market bubble in all recorded history by Price to Sales ratio. Investors paying nosebleed levels for a dollar of sales in Big Tech firms. Unfathomable to watch unfold if you dont chase bubbles for a living.

$NDX $SPX #StockMarket #Nasdaq $MSTR $TSLA $NVDA $AAPL

[Aaron Zwack @Zwack_Charts]

Biggest stock market bubble in all recorded history by Price to Sales ratio. Investors paying nosebleed levels for a dollar of sales in Big Tech firms. Unfathomable to watch unfold if you dont chase bubbles for a living.

$NDX $SPX #StockMarket #Nasdaq $MSTR $TSLA $NVDA $AAPL

[Jason Goepfert @jasongoepfert]

Fewer than an average of 43% of NYSE issues rose daily over the past two weeks, and less than 43% of volume flowed into those issues.

But the S&P 500 is still up slightly over those two weeks.

That's only happened 2 other times since 1962.

[Aaron Zwack @Zwack_Charts]

How high can this $NDX bubble go?

$NDX $SPX $SPY $DIA #Bitcoin #Ethereum #QQQ #SPX500 #Nasdaq #Stocks #DowJones $NQ_F $ES_F $YM_F $NVDA $AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $TSLA $NFLX $META $SOLUSD

[Oliver Kell @OliverKell_]

If this ends up being the high of day in TSLA....thats awesome.

[Aaron Zwack @Zwack_Charts]

Most major stock market tops happen in December and January. Would not be surprised if we are watching another one unfold now.

$NDX $SPX $SPY $DIA #Bitcoin #Ethereum #QQQ #SPX500 #Nasdaq #Stocks #DowJones $NQ_F $ES_F $YM_F $NVDA $AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $TSLA $NFLX $META $SOLUSD

[Aaron Zwack @Zwack_Charts]

Was bullish all year and had a great year trading. I see way too much risk now to just be complacent.

$NDX $SPX $SPY $DIA #Bitcoin #Ethereum #QQQ #SPX500 #Nasdaq #Stocks #DowJones $NQ_F $ES_F $YM_F $NVDA $AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $TSLA $NFLX $META $SOLUSD

[Aaron Zwack @Zwack_Charts]

IMO This is how tops form. Final run into liquidity names. We are witnessing it now.

$NDX $SPX $SPY $DIA #Bitcoin #Ethereum #QQQ #SPX500 #Nasdaq #Stocks #DowJones $NQ_F $ES_F $YM_F $NVDA $AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $TSLA $NFLX $META $SOLUSD

[Christian Fromhertz 🇺🇸 @cfromhertz]

$RSP SPX Equally Weighted

while $QQQ making new highs, the avg stock in the $SPX is def. lagging

[Christian Fromhertz 🇺🇸 @cfromhertz]

$RSP SPX Equally Weighted

while $QQQ making new highs, the avg stock in the $SPX is def. lagging

[Aaron Zwack @Zwack_Charts]

No you are not crazy for thinking this a major bubble forming. It can go longer than we think, but bubble price action is here

$NDX $SPX $SPY $DIA #Bitcoin #Ethereum #QQQ #SPX500 #Nasdaq #Stocks #DowJones $NQ_F $ES_F $YM_F $NVDA $AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $TSLA $NFLX $META $SOLUSD

[Aaron Zwack @Zwack_Charts]

Capital piling into Mega Cap Tech like another bear market coming in 2025. Equal weight S&P(RSP) vs SPY staggering difference.

$NDX $SPX $SPY $DIA #Bitcoin #Ethereum #QQQ #SPX500 #Nasdaq #Stocks #DowJones $NQ_F $ES_F $YM_F $NVDA $AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $TSLA $NFLX $META $SOLUSD

[PBA @801010athlete]

Based on a lot of stuff I’m seeing and the way some leaders are topping out short term we are going to see $ flow into the last of the leaders so they can do their big extension thing as the market tries to convince the masses thru the indices the market is fine short term. For sure $TSLA and potentially $META will be the beneficiaries of this in the next 1-2 weeks. $ALAB is super strong too so that could also benefit.

I’d be happy to be wrong here. I also am very optimistic about 2025. We are just seeing signs of an overdue rest and when that happens leaders can fall fast.

[Jason Goepfert @jasongoepfert]

There have been more declining than advancing stocks in the S&P 500 $SPY for 7 straight days.

The index is less than 3% off its peak.

That's happened twice before in the past 25 years.

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

Admin costs are about 2% for Social Social and Medicare — two of the largest sources of expenditures in the federal budget. I’m not sure what is for other programs, but I’m *guessing* it’s <10% on average. Someone please fact check me on that.

If @elonmusk and @VivekGRamaswamy aim to cut $2tn, they will have to cut politically popular programs during a #FourthTurning era that demands peak populism. @elonmusk is one of the smartest humans ever and must know all this if I can figure this stuff out.

@DOGE = political theatre. Good political theatre, but political theatre nonetheless.