Richard Frost

Founder @ScarceChain | Advisor @CoinsiliumGroup

[Richard Frost @_FrostyBTC]

Bitcoin vs its power-law trendline — every major low since 2014:

2015 → 0.43
2018 → 0.64
2020 COVID → 0.41 (record)
2022 FTX → 0.45
This week → 0.42 — $58k vs a $137k trendline.
Deepest discount to trend since the COVID crash. A decade of weekly lows has never broken 0.40.
Descriptive, not advice — fits hold until they don't.

[Richard Frost @_FrostyBTC]

Bitcoin vs its power-law trendline — every major low since 2014:

2015 → 0.43
2018 → 0.64
2020 COVID → 0.41 (record)
2022 FTX → 0.45
This week → 0.42 — $58k vs a $137k trendline.
Deepest discount to trend since the COVID crash. A decade of weekly lows has never broken 0.40.
Descriptive, not advice — fits hold until they don't.

[Richard Frost @_FrostyBTC]

Bitcoin vs its power-law trendline — every major low since 2014:

2015 → 0.43
2018 → 0.64
2020 COVID → 0.41 (record)
2022 FTX → 0.45
This week → 0.42 — $58k vs a $137k trendline.
Deepest discount to trend since the COVID crash. A decade of weekly lows has never broken 0.40.
Descriptive, not advice — fits hold until they don't.

[Richard Frost @_FrostyBTC]

Bitcoin vs its power-law trendline — every major low since 2014:

2015 → 0.43
2018 → 0.64
2020 COVID → 0.41 (record)
2022 FTX → 0.45
This week → 0.42 — $58k vs a $137k trendline.
Deepest discount to trend since the COVID crash. A decade of weekly lows has never broken 0.40.
Descriptive, not advice — fits hold until they don't.

[Richard Frost @_FrostyBTC]

Bitcoin vs its power-law trendline — every major low since 2014:

2015 → 0.43
2018 → 0.64
2020 COVID → 0.41 (record)
2022 FTX → 0.45
This week → 0.42 — $58k vs a $137k trendline.
Deepest discount to trend since the COVID crash. A decade of weekly lows has never broken 0.40.
Descriptive, not advice — fits hold until they don't.

[Richard Frost @_FrostyBTC]

Bitcoin vs its power-law trendline — every major low since 2014:

2015 → 0.43
2018 → 0.64
2020 COVID → 0.41 (record)
2022 FTX → 0.45
This week → 0.42 — $58k vs a $137k trendline.
Deepest discount to trend since the COVID crash. A decade of weekly lows has never broken 0.40.
Descriptive, not advice — fits hold until they don't.

[Richard Frost @_FrostyBTC]

@btcjvs Very probable

[MR SHIFT 🦁 @KevinWSHPod]

E175: Dan Tapiero - $50 trillion crypto. And that might be conservative

@DTAPCAP is the founder of @50TFunds, a growth stage fund built on the thesis that the digital asset ecosystem will reach $50 trillion. He doesn't touch tokens, doesn't do VC, and last year had six realizations - including a stake in Deribit acquired by Coinbase.

This episode covers his framework, his macro thesis, and what two decades alongside Robertson, Druckenmiller, and Cohen taught him about sitting still.

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction
2:00 Kast Card Discussion
2:40 Dan’s Framework For Investing In Businesses
5:29 Why Equity Over Tokenization
12:19 Partnerships: @Trezor @Bitwise
13:05 Dan’s Bullish Tweet Style Explained
19:55 The Shift That Makes Someone Confident
28:00 Partnership: @KASTxyz
28:48 Why Markets Tend To Do The Unexpected
32:23 Conviction In Bitcoin Is Becoming Much Harder
41:03 How Dan Raises Money During A Bear Market
46:24 Partnerships: @JupiterExchange @ethena
47:07 Why Dan Is Confident Crypto Will Go To $50 Trillion
52:02 How Agentic AI Will Help Crypto Reach $50 Trillion
54:33 The Numbers Behind ETH & SOL Post $50 Trillion
58:30 Closing Thoughts

[Richard Frost @_FrostyBTC]

"If you don't own Bitcoin, you're basically short Bitcoin"

https://t.co/u4fs9eXQlu

[Richard Frost @_FrostyBTC]

Great chart!

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

If you denominate US GDP in gold instead of dollars, the chart is wild.

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

Would be fun indeed

[Richard Frost @_FrostyBTC]

Super interesting. Centralised AI vs De-centralised? Look at De-dentralised AI token TAO Bittensor today....up 16%.

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.

The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.

Access to all other Claude models is not affected.

We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.

Read our full statement: https://t.co/bwn0sximKZ

[Yellow Capital @yellow__capital]

The shift from UX to AX is one of the most underrated transitions in crypto right now.

And we're building for it.

[Milk Road @milkroaddaily]

Bitwise CEO: People have overestimated $BTC as a payment method in the last 10 years - and are now underestimating it for the next 10.

"In order for somebody to want to accept it as payment, they first need to agree that it has value."

The world spent 15 years debating whether Bitcoin has value.

Once that debate settles - and we're getting closer - the payment use case unlocks naturally.

Square just enabled 4M merchants to accept Bitcoin, so the sequence is playing out.

FT @HHorsley @KevinWSHPod @Bitwise.

[James Lavish @jameslavish]

Good evening.

I’m getting a lot of questions about whether my conviction has been impaired or my thesis has changed about Bitcoin with its recent price weakness. The answer is an emphatic no. Why? Because I like to keep it simple and focus on first principles. While other assets are enjoying the warmth of the hot ball of money, Bitcoin will simply continue to reflect the debasement of all government sponsored currencies over the long run. Nothing more. Nothing less. Hope this helps.

Have a great night.

[Joe ₿ryan @satmojoe]

If you don't have Bitcoin in self-custody, then you are on the wrong side of the wall.

(A presentation to treasury company shareholders)

[Richard Frost @_FrostyBTC]

End of an era…. Wonder when Gold will be replaced at the top? Gold replaces US Treasuries as world’s top reserve asset, ECB says via @FT. https://t.co/tfWYAeHahl

[Richard Frost @_FrostyBTC]

Prediction markets are exploding

1 year ago: Polymarket ~$1B + Kalshi ~$2B = **$3B** combined valuation.

Today: ~$15B + **$22B** = **$37B**

→ **+1,133%** in 12 months

Now Robinhood & Hyperliquid are joining in => space is going mainstream.

The future is getting priced in real time.
@Polymarket @Kalshi @RobinhoodApp @HyperliquidX @CoinsiliumGroup
#PredictionMarkets #Fintech #Crypto

[MR SHIFT 🦁 @KevinWSHPod]

Gm Folks
We are back!

This is another edition of the Predict Alpha Report, our bi-monthly collaboration with @CoinsiliumGroup tracking the rise of prediction markets, event-driven finance, and the growing role of AI agents within it. Each edition focuses on the signals that matter, from capital flows and fundraising activity to regulatory shifts and product innovation. As information is increasingly priced in real time by both humans and machines, the Predict Alpha Report will track where these signals lead.
But first, let’s get this part out of the way:

Always DYOR:
This bulletin is for informational purposes only and contains summaries of news articles originally published by third-party media outlets. Please refer to the full disclaimer at the end of the post.

Now, let’s get started.
Here are the highlights:

💸 Capital Signals
👉Pretty Impressive, Kalshi
👉A Partnership, A Raise
👉Welcome HIP-4
👉Robinhood Expands…
👉Coinsilium CEO on "When Shift Happens" Podcast

📈 Industry Pulse
👉NHL, CFTC V Insider Trading
👉India Blocks Polymarket, Kalshi
👉In Japan by 2030?
👉Bio Prediction?

💸 Capital Signals

💰 Pretty Impressive, Kalshi

Kalshi has just extended its already massive Series F round with an additional $200 million raise led by Baillie Gifford and Layer Global, keeping the company’s valuation at $22 billion. The fresh capital comes just weeks after Kalshi announced a separate $1 billion raise, backed by firms such as Coatue, Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest. Altogether, the company has now raised roughly $2.77 billion since launching in 2018.

Kalshi’s growth is pretty impressive. Monthly trading volume reportedly crossed $14 billion in April, nearly triple what it was last October, while annualised revenue has climbed above $1.5 billion. Also, Baillie Gifford (traditionally known for backing long-duration growth companies like Tesla and Shopify) participating in the round is an excellent signal.

💰 A Partnership, A Raise

Polymarket is in advanced talks to raise another $400 million at a $15 billion valuation. The raise is coming shortly after Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, reportedly invested $600 million as part of a broader push into event-driven trading markets. Just a year ago, Polymarket was valued closer to $1 billion, but that valuation has been quickly repriced.

At the same time,

Polymarket is expanding beyond politics and sports into private markets through a new partnership with Nasdaq Private Market. Users can now trade contracts tied to the valuations, IPO timelines, and secondary market activity of companies like OpenAI, SpaceX, Stripe, Anthropic, and Databricks. This means that retail traders are getting access to a layer of market speculation and price discovery that was historically limited to venture firms, private equity funds, and accredited investors.

💰Welcome HIP-4

Hyperliquid has officially entered the prediction market race with the launch of HIP-4, a new upgrade that adds fully collateralised outcome contracts directly into the platform’s existing trading infrastructure. The design is interesting because Hyperliquid is integrating prediction markets into a unified trading system where traders can manage spot positions, perps, and event-based contracts from the same account. The contracts settle between 0 and 1 depending on whether an outcome happens, and unlike leveraged futures, they are fully collateralised upfront, meaning there is no liquidation risk. The first live market is tied to Bitcoin’s daily price outcome, but the infrastructure already supports more complex event markets.

💰Robinhood Expands…

Robinhood is moving deeper into prediction markets by expanding access to event-based contracts tied to politics, economics, and sports, while deliberately avoiding markets that could raise insider trading, manipulation, or reputational concerns. Instead of building its own independent system, Robinhood is partnering with regulated US platforms like Kalshi and ForecastEx to keep the products within existing compliance frameworks.

Recently, CEO Vlad Tenev described prediction markets as the company’s fastest-growing segment. For a platform that originally built its brand around making stock and options trading accessible to retail users, prediction markets are increasingly being positioned as the next layer of alternative financial exposure.

And rounding up this section:

💰 Coinsilium CEO Eddy Travia Outlines Vision for AI Agent Integration and Prediction Market Infrastructure on "When Shift Happens" Podcast

Coinsilium Group CEO @eddybitcoin appeared on the When Shift Happens podcast to discuss the structural convergence of AI agents, prediction markets, and stablecoins into a unified, machine-driven internet economy. Eddy contextualised Coinsilium's recent US$150,000 investment in @Predictive_Labs, framing data aggregation and intelligence systems as high-leverage infrastructure opportunities that avoid the regulatory complexities faced by direct trading venues like Polymarket or Kalshi. In his view, prediction markets, blockchain infrastructure, and autonomous AI systems are converging into a new “agentic economy” where machines may eventually interpret signals, allocate capital, and coordinate economic activity in real time.

📌 FYI: Coinsilium’s shares are traded on the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market in London, under the ticker symbol "COIN", and on the OTCQB Venture Market in the United States under the ticker symbol "CINGF".

But it’s not just capital flowing into the space.
Keep reading for the latest signals in regulation, adoption, and structure.

📈 Industry Pulse

⚡️NHL, CFTC V Insider Trading

The NHL and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have signed a formal agreement to coordinate on fraud, insider trading, and market manipulation tied to hockey-related prediction markets. The move follows a similar agreement signed with Major League Baseball earlier this year.

Under the arrangement, the NHL will share data and integrity-related information with the CFTC to help monitor suspicious trading activity across platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The league was already ahead of most major US sports organisations in this area, becoming the first professional American sports league to formally partner with prediction market operators back in late 2025. Now, the relationship is becoming more institutionalised as regulators and sports leagues work together to prevent manipulation and insider-driven trading.

⚡️India Blocks Polymarket, Kalshi

India has officially moved against prediction markets, ordering internet providers to block access to Polymarket and reportedly preparing similar restrictions for Kalshi. The decision follows the rollout of India’s new online gaming regulations, which now classify prediction markets as “money games” under the country’s betting laws. In practical terms, Indian regulators are drawing a hard line: if users are staking money on future outcomes, the activity is being treated as gambling regardless of whether the platform is crypto-native like Polymarket or federally regulated in the US like Kalshi.

What makes the move especially significant is the scale of the market involved. India is one of the world’s largest retail trading and crypto markets, and both platforms have continued onboarding Indian users even after regulators issued warnings in April. Authorities have now escalated from public advisories to ISP-level enforcement while also pressuring VPN providers that help users bypass restrictions.

⚡️In Japan by 2030?

Polymarket is reportedly preparing a long-term push into Japan, appointing Mike Eidlin, formerly Jupiter’s head of Japan, to lead local expansion efforts as the company explores regulatory approval in the country by 2030. The move is notable because Japan is currently a restricted jurisdiction for Polymarket, with users blocked due to local gambling and financial regulations. Despite that, demand appears to be building organically. Polymarket’s Japanese social accounts have already attracted tens of thousands of followers, and the platform hosts a growing number of contracts tied to Japanese politics, macroeconomics, and Bank of Japan decisions.

The expansion effort also highlights how important Asia is becoming in the global prediction market race. Japan has one of the world’s most active retail trading cultures and a highly developed digital asset ecosystem, making it strategically valuable for firms like Polymarket and Kalshi looking beyond the US. At the same time, it is also one of the more legally complex markets to enter since Japanese gambling laws remain strict, and regulators across the region are increasingly scrutinising event-based trading platforms as volumes grow.

Lastly,

⚡️Bio Prediction?
Prediction markets are beginning to spill into one of the most sensitive corners of finance and science: clinical trials and drug development. A new platform called Endpoint Arena has launched a pilot marketplace where users can trade on whether biotech companies like Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Argenx, and Palisade Bio will successfully hit key clinical trial endpoints. At the same time, larger platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have started listing more biotech-related event contracts tied to drug approvals and FDA timelines.

Supporters argue these markets could become valuable forecasting tools. Instead of trying to price an entire biotech company through its stock, prediction markets isolate specific outcomes like whether a trial succeeds or whether a drug gets approved. Endpoint Arena’s founder even argues that crowd-based forecasting could eventually help surface scientific signals earlier, improve resource allocation, and create incentives for deeper public engagement with clinical research.

On the other end, critics worry that once real money becomes attached to trial outcomes, prediction markets can begin influencing the underlying events themselves. Poor odds could discourage patient participation or impact funding. There is also the risk of insider trading in biotech, where access to non-public trial data can be enormously valuable. Regardless of the possibilities, for now, the sector remains small and highly experimental.

And that’s it!
Long read, but if you enjoyed this, set a reminder in your calendar for the next edition of the Predict Alpha Report.

Thanks to Coinsilium, we’ll be dropping these updates every other Monday, i.e, twice a month.

Till then,

Thank you for being a part of the When Shift Happens family.

Full Disclaimer
All rights to the original content belong to the respective publishers. We do not claim ownership of any third-party material and provide proper attribution, including source links, for transparency and reference. While we strive for accuracy in our summaries, we make no warranties or guarantees regarding the completeness or accuracy of the information provided.

Any mention of cryptocurrency, financial products, public company stocks, or other investment instruments in this newsletter or the referenced articles is not intended as financial advice or a recommendation to invest. The information is not tailored to any individual’s circumstances and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Readers are encouraged to consult the original articles and seek independent financial, legal, or professional advice before making any investment.

The author(s) of this report may hold, directly or indirectly, positions in the securities or digital assets (including shares or tokens) of the company(ies) or project(s) mentioned herein. Any such holdings are disclosed for transparency and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument.

[Richard Frost @_FrostyBTC]

We’re within the period of maximum opportunity of this bear market.

https://t.co/vz28m30E4z

[Phong Le @phongle]

With the SpaceX IPO, the Mag 7 will become the Mag 8 and 25% of the Mag 8 will have Bitcoin on their balance sheet.