Jimmy Wang

Always searching for the next quality compounder and perfecting the discipline of active patience

[Koomberg @koomberg]

WŁASNE STACJE PALIW DINO - JEST PIERWSZY OFICJALNY SYGNAŁ - DLA HANDLU
$DNP.WA

Na stronie rekrutacyjnej Dino pojawiło się zdjęcie stacji paliw z logotypem Dino Oil. To pierwszy tak wyraźny znak, że sieć przygotowuje się do uruchomienia własnych s... https://t.co/wD5YnwPXBc

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

Wild to see how an article full of inaccuracies got amplified all the way to Nvidia's memo to Wall Street. Kudos to this tweet for setting the record straight.

The article that I'm referring to is "The Algorithm That Detected a $610 Billion Fraud: How Machine Intelligence Exposed the AI Industry’s Circular Financing Scheme"

[Boon Tee @BoonTeeEng]

This is the memo that Nvidia sent to sell-side analysts.

The original version was blurry, so I have transcribed it and posted it on my Substack.

My thanks to Bernstein for making the memo publicly available, which helps improve transparency.

https://t.co/ntCrtw2VTh

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

@IG_Rakan Don’t forget abt Brendan Lauber, Jared’s best friend, who left Rutgers after a year to help start United Bank Card. He’s also Taylor’s cousin and introduced him to the company in the early 2000s. 👍

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

As I dig through $FOUR filings, two things stand out that say a lot about Jared Isaacman as a founder 👇

$FOUR has a related-party agreement giving it access to Jared’s aircraft & property

In 2021, Jared personally funded half of a discretionary equity award for non-management employees — contributing >111k Class C shares himself

Built Shift4 from his parents’ garage at 16 → multi-billion biz. Founder-led mentality through & through.

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

@bobspaysubstack Let’s throw $FOUR into the mix 👍

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

@The_battmobile @Nietschecapital Q/Q rev is the new growth metric👍

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

Since my $DNP.WA $DNP deep dive earlier this year, I realized I had misread management’s guidance and took the new store count growth as total store count growth (thanks to someone who pointed it out in my recent Q3 earnings recap). It was a simple but costly oversight that led to an overstated projection and valuation.

I’ve now corrected the model using FY2024 results as the baseline, updated the revenue growth assumptions to reflect the appropriate store expansion rate, reduced the expense ratio to around 6% of EBIT as Dino Polska increasingly funds growth with internal cash flow, and made a small adjustment to the bear case margin to account for a more mature store base.

Catching a careless mistake after the fact is never fun, but it’s part of the process. Updated earnings projection table below.

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

$DNP.WA $DNP Q3 25' Earnings🇵🇱🦕

- Store count +98, expect to grow store count by ~20% for FY 2025 (~290 more stores to come by EOY)
- Revenue +15.17% y/y
- LFL +4.4% (4.6% food CPI) - expect to see mid-single-digit LFL sales growth in 2025
- EBIT 7.1% & EBITDA 8.6%

Others:
- Completed the construction of the distribution center in Brzeg in Q3 2025, and will launch in Q4
- Insider share purchase: Marcin Jędraszak, a Management Board Member & Sławomir Jakszuk (Supervisory Board Member)

Peers (Q3)
LFL: Żabka +4.5%, Biedronka +3.6%
Revenue: Żabka +13.6%, Biedronka +7.4%

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

Sometimes, achieving superior results means enduring short-term pain and staying patient through market irrationality. As Buffett said — Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Root’s post-earnings drawdown might just be one of those moments. $ROOT

[Fundasy @FundasyInvestor]

Small caps have the highest upside but the also the highest chance of driving an investor mad

A 2x GP business that will likely have a 10% net income margin in 3-5 years with 20%+ Gross Profit per Share CAGR, will put up a 27% topline number and investors will sell it off

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

Update: the store count growth is refer to new store count growth y/y not total store count. Apology for the error.

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

One downside of owning a foreign company as a US investor? Zero news, zero chatter, especially in a boring industry with a boring business model. $DNP.WA, $DNOPY, $DNP

Maybe I've been brainwashed by the constant hype & senseless takes on X. But the silence around Dino Polska is honestly refreshing. No noise. Just a Polish grocery chain quietly executing its plan.

Anyway, 3 quick updates:
1️⃣ Q3 store count: They added 98 stores (now at 2,933 total). If management wants to hit their "high teens" growth target, they'll need to open 158–292 (signaling a 15-20% y/y growth) more in Q4. Doable, but hitting that 20% mark @ 292 might be a stretch.
2️⃣ They're finally launching an app. For context, the big Polish grocers already have massive user bases: Biedronka's sitting at 10.7M users, Żappka at 8.1M, Lidl Plus at 7.9M, Kaufland at 5M.
3️⃣ Saving the best for last: First insider buy since the IPO in 2017. Sławomir Jakszuk from the Supervisory Board just picked up 2769 shares at 42.86PLN.

https://t.co/6FhjJXCXyy

https://t.co/OXdyzSZh95

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

A key mistake in this post, the management is expect to grow NEW store count by ~20%, which will translate to ONLY ~94 more stores in Q4

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

$DNP.WA $DNP Q3 25' Earnings🇵🇱🦕

- Store count +98, expect to grow store count by ~20% for FY 2025 (~290 more stores to come by EOY)
- Revenue +15.17% y/y
- LFL +4.4% (4.6% food CPI) - expect to see mid-single-digit LFL sales growth in 2025
- EBIT 7.1% & EBITDA 8.6%

Others:
- Completed the construction of the distribution center in Brzeg in Q3 2025, and will launch in Q4
- Insider share purchase: Marcin Jędraszak, a Management Board Member & Sławomir Jakszuk (Supervisory Board Member)

Peers (Q3)
LFL: Żabka +4.5%, Biedronka +3.6%
Revenue: Żabka +13.6%, Biedronka +7.4%

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

@prakhalgoyal My apologies. You’re right. It should be 20% y/y new store count growth, which changes the story by A LOT

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

As a $ABNB shareholder, I believe Airbnb will likely keep trading sideways — much like it has since the IPO — until meaningful revenue reacceleration. I like the ambition to launch at least one multi-billion-dollar opportunity a year, the new-biz incubation model, and the aggressive product improvements q/q, but none of it matters if it does not show up in revenue. I know this is a multi-year transition beyond the core, but it is slightly disappointing to see limited (close to none) translation to the top line quarter after quarter. All in all, my thesis still holds, and I love the product as a frequent traveler, but for me to add and make it a significant position in my portfolio, I need to see clear, meaningful reacceleration in revenue growth.

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

My main takeaways from $ABNB's earnings:
1. Airbnb has the best-looking shareholder letter in the industry
2. Brian’s go-to growth riff: "9 in 10 people stay in hotels"

All jokes aside, here are the Q3 results:

- 🟢Beat on Revenue & 🔴Miss EPS by 4%
- Gross Booking Value (GBV) + 14% y/y
- Nights & Seats Booked +9% y/y
- Revenue + 10% y/y
- Net Income $1.4B (34% Net income margin)

Notable Updates:
1️⃣ Repurchased $857 million of its Class A common stock
2️⃣ Launched Reserve-Now-Pay-Later in the US domestic travel for selective groups
3️⃣ Starting in 2026, expect the long-term effective tax rate to decline to the mid-to-high teens due to the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (“OBBBA”) on July 4
4️⃣ Paid Guest Travel Insurance increased 25% y/y (available in 12 of its largest countries)
5️⃣ Simplified fee structure "(migrated property management software ('PMS') hosts on our split fee structure (where hosts paid a 3% fee and guests paid a separate service fee) to a single 15.5% service fee)"

Y/Y Growth rate by Geography:
🌎 North America - mid-single digit
🌎 EMEA - mid-single digit
🌎 Latin America - low-20s (Brazil being the leader)
🌎 Asia Pacific - mid-teens (seeing great results in Japan & India)

Q4 Outlook:
- Revenue $2.66-2.72B revenue (7-10% y/y growth)
- Implied take rate to be flat
- GBV to grow low-double-digit y/y
- Nights & Seats Booked to get in the mid-single-digit

Concluding Thought:
Airbnb will likely keep trading sideways — much like it has since the IPO — until revenue reaccelerates. I like the ambition to launch at least one multi-billion-dollar opportunity a year, the new-biz incubation model, and the aggressive product improvements q/q, but none of it matters if it does not show up in revenue. I know this is a multi-year transition beyond the core, but it is slightly disappointing to see limited (close to none) translation to the top line quarter after quarter. All in all, my thesis still holds, and I love the product as a frequent traveler, but for me to add and make it a significant position in my portfolio, I need to see clear, meaningful reacceleration in revenue growth.

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

@jac_the_hak Definitely an interesting point. My guess is that the market remains skeptical about Airbnb’s efforts to grow beyond its core business and its ability to reaccelerate growth in its main segment.

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

My main takeaways from $ABNB's earnings:
1. Airbnb has the best-looking shareholder letter in the industry
2. Brian’s go-to growth riff: "9 in 10 people stay in hotels"

All jokes aside, here are the Q3 results:

- 🟢Beat on Revenue & 🔴Miss EPS by 4%
- Gross Booking Value (GBV) + 14% y/y
- Nights & Seats Booked +9% y/y
- Revenue + 10% y/y
- Net Income $1.4B (34% Net income margin)

Notable Updates:
1️⃣ Repurchased $857 million of its Class A common stock
2️⃣ Launched Reserve-Now-Pay-Later in the US domestic travel for selective groups
3️⃣ Starting in 2026, expect the long-term effective tax rate to decline to the mid-to-high teens due to the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (“OBBBA”) on July 4
4️⃣ Paid Guest Travel Insurance increased 25% y/y (available in 12 of its largest countries)
5️⃣ Simplified fee structure "(migrated property management software ('PMS') hosts on our split fee structure (where hosts paid a 3% fee and guests paid a separate service fee) to a single 15.5% service fee)"

Y/Y Growth rate by Geography:
🌎 North America - mid-single digit
🌎 EMEA - mid-single digit
🌎 Latin America - low-20s (Brazil being the leader)
🌎 Asia Pacific - mid-teens (seeing great results in Japan & India)

Q4 Outlook:
- Revenue $2.66-2.72B revenue (7-10% y/y growth)
- Implied take rate to be flat
- GBV to grow low-double-digit y/y
- Nights & Seats Booked to get in the mid-single-digit

Concluding Thought:
Airbnb will likely keep trading sideways — much like it has since the IPO — until revenue reaccelerates. I like the ambition to launch at least one multi-billion-dollar opportunity a year, the new-biz incubation model, and the aggressive product improvements q/q, but none of it matters if it does not show up in revenue. I know this is a multi-year transition beyond the core, but it is slightly disappointing to see limited (close to none) translation to the top line quarter after quarter. All in all, my thesis still holds, and I love the product as a frequent traveler, but for me to add and make it a significant position in my portfolio, I need to see clear, meaningful reacceleration in revenue growth.

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

Some takeaways from $ROOT's earnings call:

Competitive backdrop: Rate increases are moderating, and peers are still spending heavily, yet ROOT is accelerating growth across all channels.
Severity: Recent severity uptick remains within normal fluctuation.
IA momentum: The IA channel has been one of the most attractive near-term growth levers.
Channel mix: Partnership channel carries higher average premium.
PIF trend: October PIF continues to accelerate; no signs of slowdown.
Tariffs: No meaningful impact observed.

Overall, a solid quarter. I’m genuinely surprised by how quickly the IA channel has become the biggest growth driver. It was also a bit disappointing that embedded partnership growth (or lack of) wasn’t called out in the release and didn’t draw any questions on the call, despite being a core pillar of the strategy.

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

$ROOT Q3 Earnings - Double beat on revenue & EPS

SNAPSHOT:
✅ Policies in Force +14.5% y/y; Premium per Policy −2.2% q/q
✅Gross Premium Written +17% y/y
✅Revenue +27% y/y
✅Loss + LAE ratio 66% (slight uptick, as expected)
❌Net income −$5.4M, driven by $17M non-cash Carvana warrant expense and elevated investment spend, both expected

DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS:
Partnerships: >2x new writings y/y, led by IA with 3x y/y growth and >50% of partnership new writings
Direct: new writings up sequentially by high single digits

PRODUCT & PRICING:
New pricing and UBI models expected to lift LTV by >20% on average and improve predictive power by ~10% vs prior model

Q4 OUTLOOK:
• ~$5M increase in investment q/q
• Loss ratio to rise q/q on normal seasonality

[Jimmy Wang @_Jimmy_Wang_]

$ROOT Q3 Earnings - Double beat on revenue & EPS

SNAPSHOT:
✅ Policies in Force +14.5% y/y; Premium per Policy −2.2% q/q
✅Gross Premium Written +17% y/y
✅Revenue +27% y/y
✅Loss + LAE ratio 66% (slight uptick, as expected)
❌Net income −$5.4M, driven by $17M non-cash Carvana warrant expense and elevated investment spend, both expected

DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS:
Partnerships: >2x new writings y/y, led by IA with 3x y/y growth and >50% of partnership new writings
Direct: new writings up sequentially by high single digits

PRODUCT & PRICING:
New pricing and UBI models expected to lift LTV by >20% on average and improve predictive power by ~10% vs prior model

Q4 OUTLOOK:
• ~$5M increase in investment q/q
• Loss ratio to rise q/q on normal seasonality