@The_Real_Hello@HunterBiden Okay, what are you waiting for then? Pay that fee for a verification to capitalize on this opportunity! Are you really going to let this chance pass you by over $9 or whatever it costs for a one-month subscription?
@marcjoffe@jamesetta_w@grok Provide an overview of the state of the US economy when Biden took office. Was the country undergoing a recession at that point?
My unpopular opinion is that Biden’s econ team achieved their stated goal of world class Covid recovery, avoided recession (once thought inevitable), prioritized employment, navigated global inflation, and delivered benefits to the working class. it’s just that voters hated it.
I’ve lived in California all my life. And I don’t disagree that Newsom would sail to a third term if he were constitutionally eligible, but that’s beside the point. He isn’t personally responsible for most of California’s problems, many of which require solutions far beyond the capacity of a state governor. But that doesn’t change the fact that, as the face of California, Newsom has become synonymous with poor governance in the eyes of millions of Americans. That’s going to be a huge problem for him when he inevitably runs for president next cycle.
As I said, Alex Padilla is already a US Senator — a position with comparable prestige and political influence to Governor, but without the responsibility of managing an entire state, constantly dealing with crises, and making difficult decisions that are guaranteed to upset people. That’s especially true in a state as large, populous, and complex as California, which I can only imagine is a nightmare to govern. In many ways, California functions like an entire country, in terms of population, economic scale, and sheer magnitude of problems, and yet the Governor has to manage all of that with a fraction of the resources and capabilities of a national government.
So what exactly is the appeal for Padilla? Being a member of the Senate is easily one of the best jobs in politics. Why trade in a cushy position as one of the 100 most prominent officials in the federal government — where he has a direct role in shaping national policy, only runs for reelection every six years, has no term limits, and where his hardest decisions amount to casting votes usually already chosen by party leadership anyway — for a far more stressful and politically thankless job?
Not personally, but I come from a family of very successful entrepreneurs. I’m talking hundreds of millions of dollars. One thing I’ve learned from the most successful people in my family is that hard work, smart decision-making, and proper planning are absolute prerequisites for success, but luck can still be the difference between a startup that gets acquired or goes public and one that fails.
The bottom line is that you’re absolutely right about the importance of personal agency in achieving success. If you don’t have your ducks in a row, you have no chance. It’s only when you’re doing everything in your power to succeed that the opportunity to capitalize on luck even arises. But to discount that factor entirely is ridiculous.
The fact that a large part of success comes down to luck doesn’t take away from the hard work and dedication involved. Of course any self-made billionaire had to work their ass off to reach that level. The point is that hard work alone in no way guarantees success — luck is a huge factor in determining whether a startup fails or grows into a major company.
There is a pervasive belief among leftists that they — and nobody else — are in touch with the American public. They think that their ideas and priorities are so incredibly popular that Democrats could win every national election simply by running on their platform. And, by extension, when Democrats lose it must be the result of their failure to embrace the causes and policies of the left.
There is no evidence of a Gaza effect. Literally every piece of available data indicates "no effect." Insofar as there could have been an effect, it was indirect & not protest-oriented. The demos who stayed home are the same demos who turned right. Jill Stein underperformed 2016.
Unpopular take: Maybe Israel/Gaza wasn't much of a factor for Harris in 2024. Slotkin, Gallego, Rosen, Baldwin, Stein all won in swing states that Harris lost holding positions on Israel similar to the WH. Shapiro has sky high approval in PA. #DNCAutopsy
The USA is quite singular among industrialized countries with its progressive policy, in places like NYC, Austin, SF, etc., of letting the severely, violence-prone mentally ill roam around public spaces untreated. One just doesn't see this in other countries, whether developed or developing, frankly.