Every piece of advice is a reaction to something that came before.
"Validate your idea before you go all-in" was a reaction to MBAs raising millions of dollars based on nothing but a business plan.
Today, young builders take that advice and quickly "invalidate" every idea they come up with.
Now the missing ingredient is conviction 🤷♂️
It's all the fault of the English 🏴.
This French colony gone wrong has ruined continental Europe for over 8 centuries. It is an embarrassment to Western Civilization.
England is a French startup that grew sentient, deleted its operating system, and has been terrorizing the neighbors ever since. In 1066, William the Conqueror didn't actually intend to create a global superpower; he was just looking for a damp, offshore storage unit for his extra knights. But somewhere between the Battle of Hastings and the invention of the lukewarm ale, the "Normandy Expansion Pack" glitched.
What was supposed to be a lovely vineyard-adjacent outpost devolved into a chaotic, rain-soaked experiment in how many ways a human can boil a vegetable until it loses its will to live.
For eight centuries, Continental Europe has been forced to play the role of the exhausted parent watching a toddler with a flamethrower. The English spent the entire Middle Ages trying to move back into their "parents' basement" in France, leading to the Hundred Years' War—which was essentially just a very long, very violent property dispute over who got the good patio furniture in Aquitaine.
When they finally got evicted, they didn't just walk away; they decided that if they couldn't be French, they would make "Not Being French" their entire personality. They invented an entire Church just so a king could get a divorce, and they pivoted to a global empire primarily so they could find something—anything—with actual spice in it, only to bring those spices home and use them as decorative paperweights.
The sheer audacity of the British project is breathtaking. They took a perfectly functional Romance-language foundation, dragged it through a hedge of Germanic gutturals, and created a linguistic Frankenstein that they now have the nerve to export back to us.
For 800 years, they have sat on that island like a disgruntled tenant who refuses to join the neighborhood watch but insists on judging everyone’s lawn from behind a lace curtain. They spent centuries meddling in European affairs just to ensure no one else could have a nice time, only to eventually execute the ultimate "I’m leaving the party" dramatic exit with Brexit—which, let’s be real, was just the final, agonizing stage of a 1,000-year-old French colony finally admitting it’s too socially awkward to stay in the room.
The tragedy of the Continent is that we are still dealing with the fallout of William’s bad weekend in 1066. We gave them the architecture, the wine, and the legal framework, and in return, they gave us the Industrial Revolution (which ruined the air), the concept of "The Weekend" (which ruined productivity), and the belief that a vacation consists of turning bright pink on a beach in Spain while yelling for a full English breakfast.
England isn't a neighbor; it’s a French experiment that escaped the lab, moved into a cold shed, and decided to make its misery everyone else’s problem. We’ve been paying the "Norman Tax" in psychic damage for nearly a millennium, and quite frankly, we’re still waiting for the refund.
Our agreement with @SpaceX means we will use all the compute capacity at their Colossus 1 data center.
This will give us over 300 megawatts of additional capacity to deploy within the month.
⚠️ WARNING - An unpatched critical telnetd bug (CVE-2026-32746) lets attackers gain full system access with no credentials.
One connection to port 23 is enough to trigger memory corruption and execute code as root.
No patch yet. Prior telnet flaw is already exploited in the wild.
🔗Read → https://t.co/qYE10CQNIR
Apple is going to win the AI race because they're REFUSING to participate.
Everyone's laughing at them for "falling behind".
But there's a concept in investing most people misunderstand:
The assumption is that whoever spends the most wins.
Bigger capex = bigger moat = bigger returns
Historically, the OPPOSITE is true.
Companies that outspend their peers on capital expenditure consistently deliver worse forward returns than companies that exercise discipline.
The data is unambiguous.
And right now we're watching the most aggressive capex arms race in the history of corporate America.
Amazon announced $200 billion in 2026 capex. The stock dropped 11% the day after. Alphabet committed $175-185 billion. Microsoft $145 billion. Meta $115-135 billion.
These companies are now consuming roughly 90% of their operating cash flow on infrastructure spending. They're borrowing over $400 billion collectively to cover the gap.
Meanwhile Apple:
- Sits on $130 billion in cash
- Returns $100+ billion a year to shareholders through buybacks and dividends
- Outsources its AI compute to partners instead of building its own infrastructure from scratch
Wall Street calls this "falling behind."
I call it DISCIPLINE.
And there's a perfect parallel from the auto industry:
Toyota refused to go all in on EVs when every other manufacturer was racing to electrify.
The media hammered them. Analysts downgraded them. The narrative was that Toyota was a dinosaur.
Instead, Toyota doubled down on hybrids, let competitors burn through capital on first-generation EV infrastructure, and watched the early adopters make expensive mistakes (eange anxiety, charging network gaps, margin compression).
The result? Toyota sold 10.8 million vehicles in 2024. Fifth consecutive year as the world's top-selling automaker.
Hybrids now account for nearly half their US sales.
Their stock has outperformed every major traditional automaker over the past four years.
The late mover won. The disciplined capital allocator won.
Not because Toyota ignored the future but because they let EVERYONE ELSE pay for the learning curve.
That's EXACTLY what Apple is doing with AI.
They're watching Microsoft, Amazon, and Google pour hundreds of billions into data centers and GPU clusters. They're observing which approaches work and which don't.
They're keeping their powder dry.
When the technology matures and the economics clarify, Apple will move.
With $130 billion in cash, they can acquire or build whatever they need - on THEIR timeline, at THEIR price, after everyone else has made the expensive mistakes.
This is not falling behind. This is capital allocation at the highest level.
The companies spending the most right now are making 3-5 year bets priced for immediate returns. If monetization doesn't arrive on schedule, those hundreds of billions become the most expensive sunk cost in corporate history.
Apple's risk? Missing a cycle. That's manageable.
Everyone else's risk? Spending $700 billion on infrastructure that generates insufficient returns. That's CATASTROPHIC.
Sometimes the smartest move in an arms race is refusing to participate.
We're watching a financial crisis unfold in real time.
The last time funds started blocking investors from getting their money back, Bear Stearns collapsed six months later.
In 2007, BNP Paribas froze €1.6 billion in funds.
Bear Stearns declared 2 funds "essentially worthless" and gated a third.
Everyone said it was "contained."
6 months later the entire financial system nearly went under.
I'm not saying we're there YET...
But I am saying the pattern is rhyming.
BlackRock just capped withdrawals from its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund after investors demanded 9.3% of their shares back - nearly DOUBLE the fund's 5% quarterly limit.
Investors wanted $1.2 billion out. BlackRock gave them $620 million and said no to the rest.
BlackRock stock dropped 7%. KKR, Ares, Apollo, Blue Owl - all down 5-6% on the same day. The financial sector ETF is off 9% in a month.
This is the same BlackRock that just slashed a $25 million private credit loan from 100 to ZERO in 3 months. Full value one quarter. Worthless the next.
And they'd already done the exact same thing months earlier with Renovo Home Partners.
But this isn't just a BlackRock problem.
Look at the dominoes:
Last summer, Tricolor and First Brands went unexpectedly bankrupt. $10-15 billion in combined liabilities. Write-offs hit JPMorgan, UBS, and Jefferies.
Then a UK lender called Market Financial Solutions collapsed with a £2.4 billion loan book.
Fraud allegations. Double-pledged collateral. Barclays exposed for £500 million. Apollo, Elliott, Santander - all caught in the wreckage.
Then Blue Owl permanently halted redemptions. Stock cut in HALF.
Then Blackstone's $82 billion flagship fund got hit with $3.8 billion in redemption requests. They had to pump in $400 million of their own money just to meet demands.
Now BlackRock is literally blocking the exits.
Even Apollo's own CEO warned a shakeout is coming.
When EVERYONE at the top is waving red flags - pay attention.
UBS raised its worst-case default forecast to 15%. Defaults sit at 3-5% today. The trajectory is ugly.
Here's the structural problem:
After 2008, regulations pushed risky lending OUT of banks and INTO private credit.
The sector ballooned to $3 trillion. But these funds make 5-7 year loans while promising investors quarterly liquidity.
That works until everyone wants out at once. Which is exactly what's happening.
40% of sponsor-backed loans are tied to the software industry - the same sector AI is threatening to destroy.
The Fed pumped 40% more money into the system after Covid and kept rates at zero.
That easy money funded garbage underwriting. And now there's a $162 billion maturity wall hitting THIS YEAR.
I've been warning about private credit for weeks. The story is always the same:
Opaque valuations. Illiquid assets. Limited transparency. And the false promise of steady returns with no volatility.
The whole sales pitch was equity-like returns with bond-like stability. But you can't eliminate volatility - you can only HIDE it...
Until you can't.
When the WORLD'S LARGEST ASSET MANAGER starts blocking investors from getting their money back, that's not "noise".
That's an alarm.
Get out before the exit gets more crowded.