indigo.

[logjam @_logjam]

The Neegy coin PA has truly been incredible

one search on tik tok and you’d know it’s crazy viral and deserves higher than 200k

Yet it took a few wallets to buy & everyone comes flooding in

think for ya self neegy

[indigo. @___ksnw]

@CookerFlips so damn true.

[Beff (e/acc) @beffjezos]

Nice leverage, kid. Would be a shame if someone were to engineer a little volatility.

[Citrini @citrini]

Imagine, for a moment, you are an LP in Situational Awareness. The fund that launched on a pitch that was essentially “AI is the only thing that matters and if you recognize that and wish to be invested in a vehicle that will express that view by getting massively nips to nuts long the most beta to our informed AI views this fine stock market can offer us, then you invest”. And you invested. Not just because you’re bullish on AI, thousands of hedge funds are “bullish on AI”, but because you think Leopold is uniquely situated as being one of/knowing “the few hundred people” who will bring about Machine God before 2030.

Then over the next two years, the fund did exactly what it said it would. And it went up. By, like, twenty something times if I’m remembering properly.

Again, in this scenario you are the person who read Situational Awareness (the paper) and said “Yes, I agree AI is more powerful than the nuclear bomb and will render the world unrecognizable before the decade is out. And I want my investments into the hedge fund version of that view”.

Now those stocks go down, so the fund goes down.

Let me ask you - do these LPs seem like the type of people that are going to become bearish on AI because SK Hynix got cut in half in six weeks? The people who likely regard “I’m going long TQQQ” levels of tech bullishness the same way normal people view investing into a muni bond fund?

Yeah...I would not expect many of them are calling Mr. Ash Burner to complain right now. Some people don’t realize how insane being up 2200% since inception (in 2024) is. To put that into perspective, if you invested $100M with SALP at inception and wiped out ninety percent in July, your investment would be worth $230M.

I think it’s probable the LPs will BTFD. Situational Awareness is going to get the money they’re asking for. And, once it’s in, they’ll take off their (likely short dated) hedges because they’re not at risk of getting liquidated by their prime, meaning the market makers that sold them the hedges will cover their delta hedge on what’s probably quite a lot of notional exposure. And at the same time, they will be deploying that capital into what they think is “the best buying opportunity since April 2025”.

I don’t think @leopoldasch is in trouble so much as he’s likely to raise the capital he’s asking for, which would mean it’s more likely now that Leopold causes the bottom than causes AI to continue going down.

If there’s something I’m missing that would cause this cohort of LPs who are AI-super-believers that are likely still up significantly on their SALP investment to decide that they would rather not buy the dip, then, sure, every stock even vaguely AI-smelling is probably going to Hades. But…

[indigo. @___ksnw]

@Cupseyy amazing.

[indigo. @___ksnw]

@jito @buffalu__ Wonderful.

[Cupsey @Cupseyy]

balls tingling

[indigo. @___ksnw]

@Cupseyy Wow

[indigo. @___ksnw]

@SolanaFloor @circle @solana Amazing

[indigo. @___ksnw]

@Asteroidfan Happy birthday Liv

[Jukan @jukan05]

TFHK Commentary: How Should We Understand the Current Correction in AI Hardware?

The market is always right. Changes in stock prices inevitably reflect the new variables the market is currently pricing in. Even as long-term bulls on the AI industry, we need to understand the core concerns driving this correction in AI semiconductor stocks.

The current market bears a striking resemblance to last autumn and winter. Following OpenAI’s large fundraising round, industry conditions were very strong, yet stocks continued to trade sideways. Market participants spent every day debating CapEx, ROI, valuations, and financing—much like they are doing now.

The conclusions from this quarter’s earnings reports remain overwhelmingly positive. GCP grew by 80%, the ROI of cloud investment was validated, Intel delivered a significant beat, and ASML, TSMC, and Intel raised their order or CapEx outlooks. Presumably, these companies also saw extremely strong downstream forecasts, giving even the most conservative players in the supply chain the confidence to make aggressive bets. Had this information emerged in May or June, semiconductor stocks would almost certainly have surged.

Now, however, every earnings release has instead become an opportunity for bears to reassess valuations and the long-term investment thesis. What we may be seeing is that the AI market is no longer in the “AI Summer” of May and June. The same positive developments now provide less support to share prices. Take GCP’s 80% growth as an example. Previously, the market’s first reaction would have been: “AI demand has exceeded expectations—the catalyst has arrived.” Now, the first response is: “So what? What about 2028? Can OpenAI become profitable? For how many more years can GPU prices keep rising? Margins are rising again, financing costs are increasing, and the entire CapEx thesis needs to be repriced.” In essence, the market has shifted from trading the growth of AI CapEx to trading its sustainability and ROI.

Market sentiment, as we perceive it, has already become extremely bearish. Even long-term bulls are beginning to question whether AI semiconductor stocks can continue to rise, and we are hearing almost no calls for new highs. When the market shifts from looking for further upside to searching for additional downside risks, it usually means that pessimistic expectations have already been largely priced in.

Nevertheless, we have no doubts about the fundamentals. We also believe that, ultimately, facts determine stock prices. So what would send these stocks higher again? Under the framework outlined above, additional capital-spending plans alone will no longer be enough to convince the bears. What is needed is validation of a new demand curve. The most powerful and direct catalyst would be the emergence of a blockbuster product. If “Coding 1.0” proved that AI can improve developer productivity, then “Coding 2.0” must demonstrate that AI agents can genuinely replace part of the software development process. Once new productivity use cases are validated, the market’s concerns about AI ROI may be redefined, and AI infrastructure spending will once again be viewed as “productivity investment” rather than a “cost.”

[indigo. @___ksnw]

@MoneyPrinter0x ethereum:0x0f2d719407fdbeff09d87557abb7232601fd9f29 summmeerrrrrrr

[NIK @ns123abc]

“Sir… it’s over. the chinese just open sourced KIMI K3 weights to the world for free…”

https://t.co/rybGqIhEzM

[kache @yacineMTB]

If technology isn't open and made available to all, if we don't have freedom over the technology we rely on, it will be very, very bad.

If our infrastructure cannot handle it, we simply need to come up with ways to handle it. Maybe our infrastructure is just dog shit

[indigo. @___ksnw]

@NostaIgicGareth @blknoiz06 @wirelyss If the intention is really to reward loyal holders, then simply holding the token at the time of a snapshot shouldn’t be enough. The mechanism should factor in both position size and holding duration.

[indigo. @___ksnw]

@Tradermayne @Evan_ss6 You’re the best .Greatful

[indigo. @___ksnw]

@RuneCrypto_

[indigo. @___ksnw]

I’d be super bullish on TON if someone built a truly great prediction market on it.