NewSHA

PhD student @Princeton | Co-founder @Tele_Swap | Interested in Blockchains and AI

[NewSHA @__nemo__omen]

@RootTwo23683 As far as I know Kalshi offers NO side on parlays that’s basically selling YES.
Wdym by “entirely flow to buy”?

[NewSHA @__nemo__omen]

Tripled my money in World Cup prediction markets while taking minimal risk.
The strategy? Exploit miscalibration on Kalshi by buying near-certain game-spread contracts. Nearly all resolved in my favor.

Recently, I did another analysis of miscalibration on moneyline and parlay contracts. Check it out: https://t.co/dwUx2sII9K

[NewSHA @__nemo__omen]

@bidetblade The number can be different for different games and leagues but the shape that I explain right after this part seems to persist.

[NewSHA @__nemo__omen]

@peakshubham Good point
I only used extremes (mostly >96c) and some insight into WC and soccer in general to mitigate the risk

[NewSHA @__nemo__omen]

@Always123BC This study was only on this year’s data and three major leagues; what I found readily available on Kalshi. Definitely can be extended 👍🏼

[NewSHA @__nemo__omen]

@BallgameBets The close time is essentially when the outcome is final and decided. The conditional (on info available at each moment) probability should determine the price.

[NewSHA @__nemo__omen]

@qavrav Not yet
Saw miscalibration on interest rate markets too but haven’t traded it
Any suggestions?

[NewSHA @__nemo__omen]

@alch3my101 Yeah I avoided some games in later rounds
And tried to stick to higher ones like >97 cents or not take it at all

[NewSHA @__nemo__omen]

@danielalecio_ Okay

[NewSHA @__nemo__omen]

Correct.
For the price per contract they were above 94c mostly >96c.
Did it on ~40-50 markets.

The initial round had safer options (strong teams vs new to WC)

I said near all because 1. in some cases I sold the bet before the game was over and 2. I didn’t take all the available low risk bets.

My partner and I enjoy watching soccer and we had some (basic) insight that helped us rule out some games and not take the risk.

There was one game that I remember (USA vs Belgium) with >95c spread that wouldn’t have resolved in my favor but I hadn’t taken it.

[NewSHA @__nemo__omen]

@_proteuss_ True
I didn’t automate the process and did all of it manually with some insight into soccer games and teams

[Ali Behrouz @behrouz_ali]

Moving from conventional ML to continual learning requires revisiting even the fundamental concepts such as “test”/“train” time.

LLMs Need Sleep and Dreaming! We introduce a phase, where the model consolidates its fragile short-term memories into stable long-term memories, and then dreams to recursively self-improve over time. For memory consolidation, we introduce a new form of distillation, called Knowledge Seeding (KS), where a small model(s) distills its knowledge to a larger model. Our experiments on continual learning and reasoning tasks show that this new phase can help the model to perform better and relatively better mitigates catastrophic forgetting.

[NewSHA @__nemo__omen]

Having some fun with World Cup on Kalshi. There are some almost zero risk trades out there. This is just for the past two days. Why is no one taking them??

[NewSHA @__nemo__omen]

Polymarket added Combo for the world cup 👀

Like Kalshi, they are using RFQ for their combos.
Well, isn't that trading against the house?

[NewSHA @__nemo__omen]

@PahlaviReza @SecMullinDHS @marklevinshow

[NetBlocks @netblocks]

⚠️ Update: #Iran's internet blackout has entered day 32 with most users cut off from the outside world for over 744 hours.

Extended digital isolation is bringing new challenges for Iranians, from expired domains and accounts to unpatched servers on a degrading national intranet.

[CAMERA @CAMERA4Truth]

A new CAMERA analysis found @bbc, @cnn, @nbc and @nytimes used the phrase "war crime" 32 times in the first three weeks of the U.S./Israel-Iran war.

88% of those applications were directed solely toward the actions of the United States and/or Israel.

Zero were directed solely toward the actions of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

"The disproportionate application of the phrase stands in contrast with reality," writes @dmlitman.

"Of the over 400 ballistic missiles fired at Israel, it is estimated that half of them were cluster munitions which drop dozens of submunitions over a wide radius of five miles. As of Mar. 22, at least two dozen of these missiles have hit populated areas, 'with over 100 separate impact sites.' While cluster munitions are not universally banned, using them to target populated areas almost certainly constitutes a war crime."

[Ranvir Rana @0xranvir]

1/ PARLAYS ARE BROKEN IN PREDICTION MARKETS. WE FIX IT

The missing piece is market structure. If every combo is priced separately, liquidity fragments and capital requirements explode combinatorially (2ᴹ where M is the number of events).

Our new paper, ParlayMarket, shows how to support parlay-style contracts in an AMM with a shared state, so the effective state/risk scales O(M²) instead of 2ᴹ

In other words: exponential contract expressiveness without exponential capital.

Joint work with @VirajNad, @__nemo__omen, @viswanathpramod. Link: https://t.co/biwoDxLeLz

[Farm Girl Carrie 👩‍🌾 @FarmGirlCarrie]

18-year-old Melika Azizi has been executed by the Islamic Regime in Iran under the charge of being an
"Enemy of God" (Moharebeh).

She was violently arrested during the nationwide January protests in the city of Masal, Gilan Province of Iran, following her participation in protests against the Islamic Regime.

Melika was held in Lakan Prison in Rasht, where she was subjected to physical abuse and denied contact with her family, who also faced pressure by the Islamic regime's security forces.

Rest in Peace, Melika 🙏💔

[Hichkas @HichkasOfficial]

I'm Iranian.

The war against the Islamic Republic terrorist regime Must Not Stop.

The continuation of the Islamic Republic in any shape or form means 100s of thousands, if not millions, of Iranians, Israelis, and Americans DEAD.

#JavidShah
#PahlaviWillReturn