Bernard J. Snowden

“Keep doing what you’re doing and you’ll be proud of it someday” | @mit alum | tracking markets

[Bernard J. Snowden @_bjsnowden]

RIP 60 mins

[Variety @Variety]

Scott Pelley Out at CBS News After Dramatic Clash With New ’60 Minutes’ Executive Producer https://t.co/BbOf6db9nf

[Bernard J. Snowden @_bjsnowden]

I thought we were in the clear here after reclaiming 70s, but he’s still got some time

Story has changed slightly

[Bernard J. Snowden @_bjsnowden]

Only silver lining for Saylor rn is he has until June 2028 until some shareholders have redemption rights and Dec 1, 2029 to pay back debt on some of the convertible bonds.

Has a couple of years to get back above water

[Bernard J. Snowden @_bjsnowden]

@teacherken For sure Mr. B, he had a lot more left

[Bernard J. Snowden @_bjsnowden]

Victor Oladipo

[HAWK @HawkEmDownChris]

You can’t say Derrick Rose. Name an athlete you wish had a fully healthy career.

[Bernard J. Snowden @_bjsnowden]

ADTN getting more attention now, by bigger accounts

https://t.co/m0vYXUW9m7

[Ren @Ren_aramb]

I’m long $ADTN - Adtran

Everyone walked through the obvious optical doors already. LITE up over 1,000%. COHR up nearly 300%. Both got $2B NVIDIA investments in March. The thesis is understood and priced.

There is one optical name still wearing its old-world valuation while quietly building for the new regime. This reminds me a lot AAOI with legacy tech before being re discovered.

First, what ADTN actually is. A 40-year optical networking company that absorbed ADVA Optical in 2022, inheriting two decades of European silicon photonics and optical transport IP.

This is not spring chicken.

This is deep engineering depth that the market still classifies as dying copper broadband.

Then in March they launched LiteWave800. An 800G linear pluggable optics module that strips the power-hungry DSP out of the transceiver entirely. The result is roughly 1 pJ/bit and 0.8W, which is 6 to 10x lower power than first-gen LPO and well over 10x lower than DSP-based 800G optics. In a world where hyperscalers are slamming into power and thermal walls, watts per bit is the whole game. LiteWave800 wins on exactly that axis.

Now layer in Goldman's optical report from April. They put the optical TAM at $154B by 2028, a 9x expansion.

Here is what their data says that matters for ADTN specifically.

800G is not going anywhere.

Goldman's speed roadmap shows 800G holding meaningful share from now through end of 2028, peaking around 20 to 36% of the market. LiteWave800 ships into exactly that window. The SAM is substantial and the runway is multi-year, not a one-quarter flash.

VCSEL holds its own.

Goldman calls out VCSEL as a light source with high energy efficiency and proven technology readiness for scale-up. LiteWave800 is built on single-mode VCSEL. They built to spec.

The 1.6T optionality writes itself.

Goldman shows 1.6T entering mass volume in 2026 and hitting 23 to 35% share by 2028. If ADTN brings a 1.6T LiteWave to market, that is incremental SAM on top of the 800G book, not cannibalization.

CEO confirmed it is a product family, not a single SKU. QSFP variant and more integrated versions are coming.

Now the financials, because I do not sell hopium.

Q1 2026 revenue $286.1M, up 15.5% YoY. Optical networking alone up 24% to $97.3M. Non-GAAP gross margin 43%. US revenue up over 41%. EPS went from $0.03 to $0.14 year over year. The ADVA integration pain is finally behind them and the operating leverage is showing up.

ADTN trades around 1x sales.

LITE trades at roughly 25x forward sales. COHR at roughly 9x. Same optical space. Differentiated product. A fraction of the valuation.

The CEO said it directly on the Q1 call. LiteWave800 reaches production volume about one year out, not today. He also said large data center connectivity is not ADTN's sweet spot, it is the smaller interconnect architectures where they play well. So this is not ADTN becoming Lumentum overnight.

The AI optics revenue is a 2027 story. You are buying the optionality before it is in the run rate.

The floor is anchored by BEAD federal broadband funding and the EU high-risk vendor replacement mandate ripping out Huawei and ZTE, where ADVA is the politically safe sovereign European alternative. Those are non-cyclical demand floors that exist no matter what happens with AI optics.

So here is the setup.

A 40-year optical engineer, trading at broadband valuations, with a category-leading power-efficient LPO module shipping into the speed tier Goldman says dominates through 2028, a 1.6T optionality on top, and a revenue floor from government spending underneath.

When the market connects ADTN to the optical re-rating that already happened to LITE, COHR, AAOI, the move is violent.

This time you are early before the run rate catches up.

I am long $ADTN.

Not financial advice.

[Bernard J. Snowden @_bjsnowden]

K Shape

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Kevin Hassett: "People are spending more on gas, but they're also spending more on everything else -- not just groceries, but restaurants and so on. I think that's a sign you see when people are optimistic about the future."

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

Sometimes being early is the same thing as being wrong.

[Bernard J. Snowden @_bjsnowden]

@DGretta_Author That’s the DAT for Hyperliquid, think MSTR

[Bernard J. Snowden @_bjsnowden]

If we somehow, someway get rate cuts remember to look at

Rocket Mortgage (RKT) and SOFI

A forward looking opp

[Bernard J. Snowden @_bjsnowden]

I’ve seen several people who were around in the 90s say this moment feels like ‘98 and ‘99

https://t.co/Kp41lYgRCQ

[Cole @_nml831]

Knicks/Spurs in the Finals
Jay-Z throwing shots in a live freestyle

It’s really 1999 again😂

[Bernard J. Snowden @_bjsnowden]

Have to think Apple is working on AI in background somehow besides the OpenAI deal with Siri.

[Bernard J. Snowden @_bjsnowden]

Today's best performing sector focused ETFs

Courtesy of @tweevest. One of the most powerful tools I've seen developed on here...

Very overlooked

[Bernard J. Snowden @_bjsnowden]

Mike Brown underrated for his coaching stints in NBA

[More Perfect Union @MorePerfectUS]

A judge has ruled that corporations can vote in some Delaware elections.

Delaware Superior Court Judge Craig Karsnitz said the town of Fenwick Island was not diluting human votes by allowing companies ​and other legal entities that own property to cast votes in municipal elections.

These "legal entities" and corporations make up about 12% of registered voters in the town.

In total Delaware has far more ​corporations chartered in the state than residents.

Judge Karsnitz rejected the constitutional arguments of the ACLU, including the claim that "entity" or corporate voting dilutes the political power of living people.