storm

🧐 learning out loud
[email protected]

[storm @_chapterX_]

@saylor the fuck

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

This is the Revenge of the Old Economy in real time.

A super cycle already underway before Hormuz closed.
Brent will break out. The security premium is not transitory.

Three drivers. Not fading. Intensifying.

Deglobalization. Electrification. Redistribution.

All three turbo-charged versus our 2020 super cycle call.

We are still in the bottom of the first inning. None of the imbalances have been resolved. They grow by the day.

Own the grains/softs. Own the metals. Own the molecules.

Remember, you cannot print molecules https://t.co/XQpR4p4HPL.

10/10

[storm @_chapterX_]

@theasewell05 @MaeveHalligan @BuckAngel ... fwiw. Happier than I have ever been post-transitioning. Sadly more scared than I have ever been too.

[storm @_chapterX_]

@theasewell05 @MaeveHalligan @BuckAngel Trans person here. Myself + every trans person I know find a lot that's being said very alien to our experience. It took deep introspection over many years to accept myself, 0 encouragement despite the signs, hard to get healthcare + wider world met my transness lukewarm at best.

[Ronnie Stoeferle @RonStoeferle]

"Dishonest money not only destroys capital, the saver and the economic calculation of entrepreneurs. It chiefly destroys the soul of a society. It begets a dishonest under-standing of risk which begets dishonest accounting, dishonest objectives, dishonest business endeavours, dishonest securities, a dishonest financial system and ultimately, a dishonest managerial class."

Tony Deden, "Gold: An Objective Look at Subjective Value"

[storm @_chapterX_]

"The real question is what gold preserves when dollars no longer tell the truth."

[🇦🇺Craig Tindale @ctindale]

https://t.co/o3BEMBSCwi

[calle @callebtc]

within a single generation we got

- 24/7 internet in our hands (smartphones)
- decentralized open-source money (bitcoin)
- general purpose AI for everyone (agents)

what a crazy time to be alive

[I_Am_The_Algo @I_Am_The_Algo]

Do not quit

I repeat do not quit

[storm @_chapterX_]

@PauloMacro Any said book recommendations?

[Psychedelic El ₿arto @PsychedelicBart]

2013: "Bitcoin is dead at $13"
2018: "Bitcoin is dead at $3k"
2022: "Bitcoin is dead at $16k"
2026: "Bitcoin is dead at $64k"

The funeral keeps getting more expensive to attend.

[Daniel Batten @DSBatten]

Together, we fixed this statement

[Gwart @GwartyGwart]

bitcoin mindfucks a lot of VCs because they rhetorically ask

“what is the likelihood that the *very first* version of a new technology ends up being the most valuable or useful version of a new technology?”

And ironically the answer for nearly 2 decades now is “very high”

[Forever Laura @Laurastacksats]

Some of you act like buying bitcoin makes you an elite philosopher. You literally just clicked buy on an app. Please be normal.

[Ronnie Stoeferle @RonStoeferle]

Interesting thought by the great Russell Napier:

"It’s an era of ‘lawyers, guns and money’ again and AI seems capable of producing a large band, perhaps the correct group name is a clot, of unemployed lawyers.

It is worth remembering that revolution is often driven by lawyers - Gandhi, Mandela, Castro, Robespierre, Adams, Jefferson.

Perhaps over the long-term AI’s biggest impact will be to create the idle intellectual kindling, in the form of unemployed lawyers, that will ignite something bigger than just the monetary revolution now in motion."

[storm @_chapterX_]

@r0ckstardev thanks for showing it to me (a stranger and nobody) a few years back at ABC, haven't forgotten

[storm @_chapterX_]

fear spreads faster than facts

[Ron Sovereignty Swanson⚡️🗝️ @RonSwanonson]

What they don’t tell you is that after a few cycles, bear markets are actually fun

Sats are cheap, retards come out of the woodworks pretending to be right for 30 seconds before being wrong for the next 3 years, and moon bois go into hibernation

Other than an irrelevant fiat price, not a bad time to be on X

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

The dread I see from bitcoiners (and the football spiking from the haters) is very short-sighted to me given that since 2022 (right before the BlackRock ETF filing) Bitcoin is up 429%, gold 177%, Silver 350%, QQQ 140%. In other words bitcoin spanked everything so bad in '23 and '24 (which ppl seem to forget) that those other assets still haven't caught up even after having their greatest year ever and btc being in a coma. IMO what happened was the 'institutionalization' narrative got priced in very quickly and ahead of it all actually happening. So it had to take a breather so the actual narrative could catch up to the price. Feel better now? You're welcome.

[storm @_chapterX_]

policy is now a hostage to physics

[🇦🇺Craig Tindale @ctindale]

Thoughts on Warsh

He understands that the Fed is no longer the protagonist of the American story. That's tge plot twist that needs to be deeply reakused.

The era itself possesses more agency than the characters inhabiting it.

Warsh thinks AI provides a temporary bypass, a supply-side accelerator that allows the economy to run hotter for longer without immediate combustion.

That's because he believes AI is ultimately productivity boost and is deflationary. So you can run hot prior to the productivity benefit.

It is a tactical recognition that if machine intelligence can widen the margin of productivity, the Fed can afford to keep its foot off the brake.

He still knows the road still ends in a wall if the physical infrastructure is not widened to match the digital speed.

His rejection of Neo-Classical models is a rejection of the ghost in the machine.

He views the "equilibrium" the fed models as a fiction, preferring AI-driven models that account for the friction of the real world.

The situational agency of 2026 leaves him with no alternative but to back reindustrialization.

The structural debt and the "future certainty" of the material defici, the reality is that we need more silver, copper, and titanium than we can currently acces, the agency of this risk dictates the path momentum.

Policy is now a hostage to physics. You cannot print the metals required for the energy transition or the chips required for the AI boom.

Warsh is trapped by the outcomes of previous dogma. His support for rebuilding the industrial base is the only way to prevent the debt trap from snapping shut. In this narrative, the central banker is less a master of the universe and more an engineer trying to reinforce the tracks before the train arrives.

Put another way this new industrialisation era will require a different style of fed chair and new pro industrial policy FOMC

Expect a lot of volatility as the world changes around us.

It wouldn't be fun if it was easy .

[Bill Miller @billfour]

“Gold is going up faster than bitcoin, I guess bitcoin is just another risk asset and not ‘digital gold.’” Wrong - the correlation between BTC and gold over the past decade is 0.09 (none). Why would you expect it to move at the same time?