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_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️
@_Checkmatey_
UTXO
Joined January 2018
1.4K Following
131.5K Followers
50.9K Posts
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Personal Update:
I am very proud to announce I'm launching the @_checkonchain Newsletter on Substack!
After 6 years studying and educating folks on the power of #Bitcoin onchain data, it's time to put my skills to the test.
Our first edition is live!
https://t.co/BLwsN9jC4s
🧵
@SmartAllocator No, will likely buy once it settles down.
Im an accumulator, not a trader.
BREAKING: Jane Street just used a quantum computer to solve the asteroid mining problem, which looks set to inflate the gold and silver supply to infinity!
The SpaceX IPO is just the tip of the spear for this catastrophic bug of using money derived from the periodic table!
I forgot, Mythos hacked Peter Schiffs gold vault code...turns out it was all bars of chocolate wrapped in gold foil after all.
Wasn't worth the effort to nick it.
Bear market bottoms are a process, not an event.
First, price-sensitive investors capitulate. Then comes the harder phase: months of sideways action that slowly wear down the conviction of those who remain.
In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines the evidence suggesting Bitcoin may be experiencing a time-pain capitulation event, and what investor behaviour looks like during this phase of the cycle → https://t.co/DakgPAdzpg
Chart explainer:
The 200WMA Quantile measures where Bitcoin is trading relative to its 200-week moving average. Current readings sit in the bottom ~10% of all historical observations, a region only visited during the deepest stages of prior bear markets.
@JoeConsorti Peak apathy.
@_nym21_ I can't help but feel that this is a pluggin to Bitcoin Research Kit just begging to be made.
A custom plugin that compiles a database of labels and filters the data.
That plugin @SaniExp, should be a paid product that you charge for.
I do not have the product dev experience to know how you do any of this, but I do know you two should be talking.
@jaymesrosenthal Thank you mate, really appreciate the kind words!
@plebmate @StaunchOrange @_checkonchain Twitter fucked their algorithms, and it has become a noisy, useless, and low signal platform.
I decided to spend more quality time, on more quality analysis, for people who appreciate it.
Value for value.
Free = you are the product.
No mate.
In podcasts I answert the hosts questions, and by necessity cannot detail months and months of analytical nuance into a 5min segment.
Plenty of folks pretend thay can assess markets with soudbites on a podcast.
The reality is, it takes work and detail, and thought, and effort.
Do you get your medical or legal advice from a podcast? Or do you pay someone who has the capacity to spend the time you do not, to think about it properly?
You're missing a lot, the nuance, the detail, the thesis, and the non-soundbite substance.
@plebmate @StaunchOrange @_checkonchain Which part of my tweet above wasn't clear?
Truthfully, please read my actual analysis if you want to have an opinion on it. You're clearly not.
@StaunchOrange @_checkonchain It's the same price as Feb low mate, and Ive been very explicit that an undercut of that level was the expected result.
Stay humble.
@d62524 @_checkonchain It's worthless only if you never want to improve, and like to keep making the same mistakes over and over.
Resilience is about how quickly you can rebound from a shock event, and begin thinking clearly about your next decision.
In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines one of the most common investor dilemmas: should you wait and try to lump-sum the bear market bottom, or is a structured DCA strategy actually the better approach? Learn about it here → https://t.co/wxRrs8EMrX
@MakeItCount4US @mintnoru Ive been talking about an undercut of 60k being the best result for months.
Honestly, if you're pulling my opinions from clips on the free internet, you actually don't know what my complete views are.
@plebmate @RetailWarrior5 Those months are the most asymmetric months.
I can buy as much as I want, and the focus on other investments when the bull starts running.
Three charts to contextualise how different investor cohorts are reacting to this sell-off.
Simple framework:
- Coins below $60k are in profit (old hands)
- Coins above $60k are in loss (top buyers)
- These charts show who is spending.
Goodnight.
@RetailWarrior5 Ive been bullish since $60k in Feb mate.
I get less bullish as the price goes above the True Market Mean at 78k.
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