the best career bets are stacked on multiple trends at once.
the software PE guys who got rich rode four simultaneously:
1) forty years of falling rates
2) endowments exploding + the yale model pushing them into privates
3) globalization
4) the internet boom
no more low hanging fruit in the above and no use backtesting someone else's path onto your own.
imo best to figure out which trends are live now and hopefully get lucky enough to ride the ones that no one sees
@kycefn@kycefn
That’s totally fair I kinda assumed from your post you said the only edge in small caps was being small enough to survive the mostly inevitable capitulation lol.😂
Respect for adjusting and finding new EV it’s a tough game.
@kycefn@kycefn
Also the number of occurrences you have via small caps that are mostly uncorrelated.
Swing trading momentum seems SUPER market dependent. Just curious your thoughts on all of this.
@kycefn@kycefn
Don’t you believe the geometric growth from small caps assuming you dont trade so large you run risk of ruin would be more +ev than swinging fundamentals that theoretically should be much more efficient.
“I don’t stake more than 2-3% of my wealth in trading.”
“I never feel stressed after losing money. I may feel for 5 minutes but as Churchill once said - you will loose many battles to win a war.”
- Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. 2006. CNBC
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The only personal edge that doesn't decay: a corpus of knowledge you built yourself.
Got this from Kirk McKeown, ex-Point72 Head of Prop Research who worked alongside Steve Cohen.
"You want to get it right, not be right."
"Alpha rewards those who value assets in a cold way."
"History rhymes because people are animals. They do the same thing over and over expecting a different result."
"Reading a book. Having these conversations. That's the competitive advantage. Not asking a chatbot."
The irony: in an AI world, the edge goes to whoever puts in the most analog reps.
Nothing is impossible anymore.
We're living in the best time in history to learn how to trade.
15 years ago none of this existed the way it does now.
Today?
You can watch a profitable trader take trades.
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For every problem you have there are 10 solutions.
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The decision to fully commit to the journey.
Go all in.
If you can make $1000 trading, you can make $1 million.
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The only difference is time and position size.
Keep going.