Joonas Lappalainen

Poker player trying to learn stock trading.

[𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽 @nobrainflip]

2021: the two targets everyone predicted were $100k $BTC and $10k $ETH.

$BTC got its $100k in Dec 2024.
$ETH never got its $10k.

And since 2021 top, $ETH has done nothing but bleed vs $BTC: ratio went 0.086 -> 0.027, lowest in ~10 months.

Conviction has fully flipped. Now it's "$BTC wins, $ETH is finished."

I'm fading that. Here's why the loudest call is wrong again:

Start with what almost nobody frames right: $BTC and $ETH are the same TYPE of asset.

Supply already distributed. No insider unlocks waiting to dump. 10+ years proving neither gets inflated away or rugged.

Almost nothing built after them can say that. These two can. They're the only 2 blue chips.

So this isn't $BTC vs some shitcoin. It's the two clean assets, and the question is which one carries less risk from here.

And rn, $BTC is the one carrying all the open problems.

1/ Saylor.

$BTC has Strategy. $ETH has Bitmine. Same trade, mirror image.

Strategy: 845,000 $BTC, cost basis ~$75.5k. $BTC ~$66k now, so they're ~13% underwater, ~$8B in the red.

Funded by ATM equity + preferred stock that pays dividends in cash ($692M paid out already). And $BTC throws off $0 to cover any of it.

So Strategy services those dividends by selling stock, or eventually $BTC. Market now prices it as a forced seller over every rally.

Bitmine (Tom Lee): 5.5M $ETH, ~4.6% of all $ETH, the largest ETH treasury. Also underwater, same bear.

But it stakes ~4.7M of that $ETH. That spins off ~$270M/yr in real yield.

The asset pays Bitmine to sit there. Strategy pays out of pocket to sit there.

Same drawdown, opposite cash flow. One treasury bleeds to hold, the other gets paid to hold.

That's the whole $ETH vs $BTC case in one frame.

2/ Productive vs dead asset.

Zoom out from the treasuries to the assets themselves.

~33% of all $ETH is staked and earns yield. Stakers get paid, supply gets locked. $ETH is a productive asset.

$BTC just sits. Its issuance goes to miners, who sell to cover power bills.

Furthermore this is $BTC's quiet long-term problem: security budget.

Fees are a rounding error of miner revenue. The block subsidy does ~all the work, and that subsidy halves every 4 years toward 0.

Nobody has solved how $BTC pays for its own security once the subsidy is gone. $ETH doesn't have that cliff: stakers are paid to secure it.

3/ Quantum.

Citi (May 2026) said it plainly: $BTC is more exposed to quantum than $ETH.

~6-6.9M $BTC sit in addresses whose public keys are already visible on-chain. No agreed migration path, slow governance.

$ETH ships upgrades every ~6 months and account abstraction gives wallets a real route to quantum-resistant sigs.

It's not that $ETH is immune. It's that $ETH can move and $BTC can't.

4/ Roadmap velocity.

Glamsterdam lands Q3 this year. Gas limit 60M -> 200M, ~78% cheaper fees, parallel execution opening the road toward 10,000 TPS.

$BTC's inertia is a feature to maxis. It's also why it's carrying every open problem above alone, with no mechanism to fix any of them fast.

So line it up:

- Treasury cash flow: $ETH earns yield, $BTC bleeds to hold
- Forced-seller overhang: $BTC has it, $ETH doesn't
- Security budget cliff: $BTC's problem, not $ETH's
- Quantum migration path: $ETH has one, $BTC doesn't
- Ship speed: $ETH every 6mo, $BTC ~never

Last cycle the loudest call was $10k $ETH. It never came. Consensus ate the L.

This cycle the loudest call is "$BTC wins, $ETH is dead" - screamed at the exact ratio where $ETH stopped going down.

Consensus will eat the L again.

[Risto Murto @RistoMurto]

Hetkinen. Investoinnit energiatransitioon (’vihreät investoinnit”) kasvoivat viime vuonna Euroopassa 41 %. Esimerkiksi Ruotsi +62 %. Suomessa investoinnit laskivat eli menimme täysin toiseen suuntaan!

Data: Bnef.

[6529 @punk6529]

1/ On Making It

Are we GMI? Are we NGMI? Are we WAGMI? What does Making It mean?

I present below the 6529 GMI Framework (tm, all rights reserved, (c) 2021, 😂)

Frameworks are just a tool. None are 'right'. This is just how I think about it.

[Ryan Berckmans ⟠ @ryanberckmans]

imo, the era of ETH has truly begun

We're seeing a huge positive shift in ETH investment climate.

This time is different🧵

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

Important: My latest deep thoughts on crypto markets and why I think the ETH merge is bigger and more important than most people understand and its not to do with the Triple Halving supply shock... It's free on Real Vision Crypto. Go get it!

https://t.co/vDJzwK18wU

[Bitcoinkeskus @bitcoinkeskus]

Välillä tiettyjen altcoinien tuottpotentiaali kattaa riskin (Bitcoinin tuotolle häviämisen) tavallista paremmin.

Tilanne näyttää olevan juuri näin Ethereumin kohdalla. Onko nyt aika ostaa siivu Etheriä? Uusi @Sijoitustieto -artikkeli käy aihetta läpi.

https://t.co/BUqLAUvXD5

[Arnold Schwarzenegger @Schwarzenegger]

I love the Russian people. That is why I have to tell you the truth. Please watch and share.

[Joonas Lappalainen @_dragoni_]

@jpnuopponen Rapala, Kamux

[MaxInvests.eth 🦇🔊🐼 @MaxMcLachlan89]

Eventually chains will need to make a choice. Will they choose to specialize in computation or settlement?
The answer seems very obvious….

[Brian Feroldi @BrianFeroldi]

I asked, “What are the best resources for understanding Web 3.0?”

I received 73 AMAZING answers.

These 10 FREE resources will get you up to speed fast:

[angelfish @0xangelfish]

zkPorter by @zkSync offers 1-3 cent transaction fees, yet is magnitudes more secure and decentralized than any other L1 or sidechain.

Why? ELI5, in 5 tweets!

⬇️⬇️⬇️

[Joonas Lappalainen @_dragoni_]

@AntikainenTeemu @BTCkeskus Siirrothan on Fantomilla lähes ilmaisia joten siirtomaksut eivät tule riittämään alkuunkaan. Itse luulen että toukeneiden luontia jatketaan eikä luvattu maksimimäärä pidä.

[RYAN SΞAN ADAMS @RyanSAdams]

1/ Why I'm bullish on blockspace.

People forget what blockchains sell.

Apple sells iPhones.

Facebook sells eyeballs.

Blockchains sell blocks.

A thread:

[Aki Pyysing @AkiPyysing]

Maksublokkeja odotellessa voivat "hyväntekijät" edelleen nostella kuukausipalkkojaan kun valtio paikkaa veikkaushäviövarojen laskun.

Blokit esiteltiin ihmeaseena. Sittemmin #Veikkaus myönsi, etteivät ne edes tuota sitä, mitä pankeille maksavat.

Silti ne ovat menossa läpi🤡.

[Ryan Watkins @RyanWatkins_]

Market suddenly realizing $ETH is a bet on:

- Internet Money
- The Metaverse
- DeFi
- NFTs
- Web 3

All rolled into one powerful asset.

$ETH is the center of the cryptoeconomy.

[Tascha @TaschaLabs]

The surest bet in crypto:

Blockchain nations with proof of stake as their economic engine 👇

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

Exceptional and important podcast again from @tferriss with the brilliant @cdixon and @naval on Web 3.0. Enjoy!

https://t.co/eq0SctuDUq

[senjalarsen @senjalarsen]

Siellä sitä ollaan!
#Veikkauskratia

@BookBeatSuomi mahtavassa seurassa @janiniipola, Leena Lehtolainen & Katri Vala välissä
❤️
Kertoivat että näkyi heti trending-listalla. Sieltä sitä saa, kelpoa yhteiskunnallisesti tärkeää luettavaa ja kuunneltavaa
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https://t.co/Se9htJDzHE